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2021 Draft Coverage: Final Mock Draft Wrap-up and Nats Prediction

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Here’s this year’s Mock Draft collection.  We usually see the first crazy-early mock just after the 2020 drafts, then again after the end of the 2020 season when the draft order is more or less determined, then it really starts to heat up in May.

I’ll keep adding to this list as Mocks come in; they’re generated all the way up to the day of the draft by the major pundits.  If i’m missing a ranking here, please let me know.

Here’s the Mock draft collection.  I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #22 (if they project out that far).  this year i’m ordering them Chronologically as rec’d instead of grouping by pundit…. this should let us see kind of an evolution of the top of the draft.  Players are bolded the first time they’re mentioned, not again afterwards.

  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) Way too Early 2021 Mock, 6/12/20: Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Brady House, Adrian Del Castillo, Matt McLain
  • BA (Collazo) v1.0 Draft 1/4/21: (missed it)
  • BA (Collazo) v2.0 draft 3/29/21: Jordan Lawlar, Rocker, Leiter, Marcello Mayer, Del Castillo.  Nats take House.
  • Prospects365 (Mason McRae) 2021 Mock draft v1.0 6/25/20: Rocker, Leiter, Jud Fabian, Luke Leto, McLain
  • Prospects365 (Mason McRae) 2021 Mock draft v2.0 9/4/20: Rocker, Fabian, Leiter, Del Castillo, Jaden Hill
  • Prospects365 (Ian Smith) 2021 Mock Draft 1.0 11/9/20: Rocker, Leiter, Jordan Lawlar, Hill, Fabian.  Nats take James Wood, prep OF from IMG Academy in Fla. Not sure this is really credible.
  • MLBPipeline (Callis/Mayo) Apr 2021 mock draft 4/26/21: Leiter, Lawlar, Rocker, Mayer, House.  Nats take Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Okla.).
  • BA (Collazo) v3.0 Mock draft 4/28/21: Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer, Rocker, House.  Nats also take Jobe.
  • MLBpipeline (Callis): May 2021 mock 5/6/21: Lawlar, Leiter, Mayer, Rocker, House.  Nats at 11 take Jobe.
  • ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) May 11 2021 Mock 1.0: Lawlar, Leiter, Mayer, Rocker, Davis. Nats at 11 take Jobe.
  • CollegeBaseballDaily May 2021 mock 5/12/21: Rocker, Leiter, Lawlar, Kahlil Wilson, Mayer. (only a top 5)
  • MLBpipeline (Mayo) May 2021 mock 5/20/21: Mayer, Lawlar, Davis, House, Leiter.  Nats take Ty Madden, RHP Friday night starter from UTexas.
  • BA (Collazo): v4.0 Mock Draft 5/24/21: Lawlar, Mayer, House, Leiter, Davis.  Nats take Jobe.
  • ESPN/McDaniel Mock 1.0 5/25/21: Lawlar, Leiter, Mayer, Rocker, Davis.  Nats take Jobe.
  • Athletic (Keith Law) Mock draft v1.0 5/27/21: Davis, Lawlar, Mayer, Rocker, Harry Ford prep C from GA (cost savings move). Nats take Bachman.
  • MLBpipeline (Callis) 6/10/21 mock: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe (!), Davis,
    Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College (in a cost-saving move). Nats at #11 take Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
  • ProspectsLive 6/8/21 mock draft: Davis, Watson, Mayer, Leiter,
    Harry Ford, C/2B/OF, North Cobb HS (cost saving move). Has Rocker falling to Nats at #11 … not a credible mock.
  • CBSsports (Mike Axisa) 6/11/21 mock: Davis, Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter,
    Frelick. Nats get Jobe.
  • Fangraphs (Longenhagen & Goldstein) 6/14/21 mock: Mayer, Lawlar, House, Leiter, Davis. Nats get Frelick, though mention that this is likely Rocker’s floor if he slips, and don’t count out Gunnar Hogeland (a top 10 guy who had TJ and has slipped).
  • MLBpipeline (Mayo) 6/16/21 mock draft: Mayer, Watson, Jobe, Leiter, Lawlar. Nats get Bachman.
  • CalltothePen (David Mullen): top 5 mock 6/17/21: Rocker, Leiter, Davis, Lawlar, Mayer. This mock is ridiculous; most pundits have Rocker closer to the Nats at #11 than #1 overall.
  • ESPN (McDaniel) Mock 2.0 6/18/21: Mayer, Davis, House, Leiter, Watson. Nats get Madden, who they take over Bachman, who he doesn’t have in the 1st round. Interesting.
  • MLBpipeline (Callis) 6/23/21 mock: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Lawlar, Davis. Nats get Bachman.
  • Athletic (Law): 6/24/21 mock draft v2.0: Mayer, Lawlar, Leiter, Davis, Colton Cowser, OF from Sam Houston State (on a discount). Nats take Jobe.
  • Baseball America (Collazzo): Mock draft v5.0 6/25/21: Mayer, Lawlar, Jobe, Leiter, Watson. Nats take Madden (over Bachman).
  • CBSsports (Axisa) 6/25/21 mock: Mayer, Lawlar, Jobe, Leiter, Davis. Nats take Bachman (though he mentions Hogeland)
  • BleacherReport (Joel Reuter) 6/25/21 mock draft: Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter, Davis, McLain (cost saving move). Nats take Madden over Bachman.
  • MLBPipeline (Mayo) 7/1/21 mock draft: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State. This is a pure reaction to Bednar’s admittedly great CWS performance, but is a massive over-draft based on where Bednar was ranked just a week ago on most boards (early 2nd rounder). Mayo notes that he thinks really they’ll take Bachman, b/c in this scenario Madden already off the board.
  • ProspectsLive Staff Mock draft v6.0: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Madden, over Bachman or Bednar.
  • Fangraphs (Longenhagen/Goldstein) Mock draft v2.0 7/6/21: Mayer, Leiter, House, Davis, Cowser (deal-cutting move). Nats take Bachman over Madden/Bednar, also noting this is Rocker’s floor.
  • Atlantic (Keith Law) Mock 3.0 7/9/21: Mayer, Rocker, Leiter, Davis, Watson. Nats land Jobe, likely because of the mock of Rocker so high. Oddly, no Bachman in the 1st round.
  • CBSsports (Axisa) Mock 7/9/21: Mayer, Lawlar, House, Leiter, Davis. Nats take Jobe, and then Bachman goes 2 picks later … and then no Madden in the entire 1st round.
  • Baseball America (Collazzo): Mock draft v6.0 7/9/21: Mayer, Lawlar, Jobe, Leiter, Watson. Nats take Madden over Bachman.
  • MLBPipeline (Callis) Dueling/Final Mock draft 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Bednar.
  • MLBPipeline (Mayo) Dueling/Final Mock draft 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, House, Davis, Watson. Nats take Madden.
  • Baseball America v7.0 day of: Mayer, Watson, Jobe, Leiter, Lawlar. Nats take Madden, Bachman slides to #18, Bednar to #19.
  • Bleacher Report (Joel Reuter) day of mock draft 7/11/21: Meyer, Lawlar, Jobe, Leiter, Cowser. Nats take Madden. Bednar goes #14, Bachman goes #21.
  • Fangraphs day-of Mock 3.0: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, DAvis, Lawlar. Nats go Madden. Bednar goes 21, Bachman goes 29 (wow).

Draft Rankings: these are prospect ranking lists, NOT mock drafts.

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5 prediction: Mayer, Leiter, House, Davis, Watson.

Who are the Nats going to take in the 1st round?

Ty Madden. More and More we’re seeing Bachman falling and Madden staying put. If Madden is not there for some reason, I see the Nats taking either Bachman or Bednar.

MLB.com Draft Tracker

ACTUAL TOP 5 DRAFT Results (added after the draft): Davis, Leiter, Jobe, Mayer, Cowser.

Pirates go way off script and pick the college Catcher Davis 1-1. Its probably the safest possible pick for Pittsburgh, which has picked 1-1 in the past and… well their track record is not great. Leiter goes #2 as frequently predicted, and the Tigers indeed take Jobe. Mayer, who is pretty much considered the #1 player in the draft, drops to an ecstatic Boston team at #4, while the Baltimore Orioles indeed go for the “draft deal” with Cowser, meaning they’ll pursue overslot prep players in the supplimental first and early second round.

It also means that there will be talent available that perhaps wouldn’t have been there later on.

Actual Nats 1st round Pick (added after the draft): Brady House!

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