The next stop on the off-season transaction bus is the “Non Tender Deadline,” by where players under club control (whether it be pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible) need to be offered contracts (tendered) by 11/21/25 or else they officially get cut-loose and become free agents. The players don’t have to SIGN said contracts, just be offered one.
Its the same and DFA’ing a guy, of which we’ve already done a ton of so far this off-season. In fact, technically every single pre-Arb player is a tender decision this week as well, though only the Arb-eligible guys are being analyzed here.
So, do we actually have any non-tender candidates on the roster at this point? Yeah we do.
Lets run through the arbitration-eligible players from high-to-low 2025 salary and make some guesses.
Resouces in use to write this:
- Cots for 2025 salaries
- MLBTraderumors for 2026 arbitration estimates.
- Also, since this is the first time we really start talking about Options w/r/t player roster flexibility, here’s Roster Resource and the list of players’ options.
- Here’s the Big Board for depth chart squinting
Like last year, we had 9 arb-eligible candidates to discuss heading into the off-season. The team DFA’d a couple of non-tender candidates early in Alfaro and Thompson, both of whom refused outright and are on the open market. Of the remaining seven, here’s some thoughts (they’re listed in order of 2025 salary):
- Luis Garcia: $4.5M in 2025, projected for $7M in 2026 and still has a 4th Arb year thanks to just hitting the Super-2 cutoff. RJ Anderson at CBSsports listed Garcia as one of the 10 biggest non-tender decisions any team faces, and for good reason. $7M for what he gives us seems like a lot. He’s barely league average in OPS+, had a .289 OBP last year, gives us really, really bad defense (-17 DRS in 2025 … as a 2nd baseman?!), and has had “challenges” on the base paths and showing hustle. He’s probably more suited to play 1B … but you don’t put a guy with a .701 OPS figure at 1B. Another wrinkle: Garcia has zero options remaining, which doesn’t really mean that much since he’s clearly entrenched in the lineup, but it does remove any 26-man roster flexibility. However, if you cut Garcia, who are you replacing him with? Tena? Nunez? We have three guys at AA who could have stepped up in 2025 (Made, King, Wallace) and made a play for 2B, but all three need more minor league time. So, for me, for the time being I think he gets tendered and 2026 turns into his make or break season, unless the FO is committed to buying a replacement.
- MacKenzie Gore: $2.89M in 2025, projected for $4.7M in 2026. I’m slightly surprised Gore’s projected arb salary is this low; ask yourself what he’d get on the open market, right now. He’s our most valuable trade chip, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him part of a big GM-meeting bonanza trade. The 2025 all star is a lock to be tendered.
- Josiah Gray: $1.35M in 2025, projected for $1.35M again in 2026. Miss a year, pick right back up where you were. I guess Gray has no real recourse to demand more than $1.35M in salary after a year where he was paid that to basically recover from surgery. No real discussion here; obviously a 2nd or 3rd starter for $1.35M is a bargain, even if he ends up doing a 95 ERA+.
- Riley Adams: $850k in 2025, projected for $1.5M in 2026. There’s certainly a lot of animosity amongst some readers here towards Adams and his 59 OPS+ given that we have Millas, and have had Millas, waiting in AAA for years. Certainly Adams did himself no favors when he couldn’t step up and take the catcher job upon Ruiz’ concussion issues last year. Instead, Millas came up and slugged to a 127 OPS+ figure before breaking his index finger in mid August, ending his 2025 season. However, the truth is that we can’t depend on Ruiz right now, and it seems short-sighted to cut one of the only 3 catchers you have on the 40-man roster and the next closest legitimate catching prospect is a 2024 draftee in Lomavita, even if he was decent in AA. If you cut Adams, you’re basically guaranteed to be shopping for a backup Catcher on the FA market, and can you get something better than Adams there? I think you tender him for insurance, and if you find a better insurance policy who you can option to AAA as needed, you cut him at that point.
- CJ Abrams: $780k in 2025, projecting to $5.6M in 1st year of Arb. No surprise here; he basically had an identical year at the plate in 2025 as he had in 2024 when he was an All Star, only this year he didn’t manage to get himself sent home from school for misbehavior at season’s end. Like his double play partner Garcia, he’s awful defensively (-6 DRS, -11 total zone) with a slew of throwing errors, and it seems like it’s just a matter of time before he moves to 2B (though it may take a couple years, since all our best SS prospects are in Low-A). In the meantime, obviously you tender the guy.
- Cade Cavalli: $760k in 2025, projecting to $1.3M in 2026 first year of arb. Hard to believe, but he’s already arbitration eligible. This is what happens when you let a guy do all his injury rehab on the60-day DL. As for tendering, no argument here; he’s going to be in the rotation, he’s a 1st rounder, and he’s a huge part of the future.
- Jake Irvin. $774k in 2025, projecting to $3.3M in 2026. Ouch; $3.3M for one of the worst starters in the league? $3.3M projection seems high; how did Gore only get $2.89M in his first Arb year with far better 2024 numbers? I dunno; this seems like its a high projection. Nonetheless, some are calling this a clear non-tender. Ok sure, but what choice does the team have? Yes he had awful numbers, but he took the ball every 5 days and ate up the innings. His first two seasons in the Majors weren’t half bad: 92 ERA+ and in 2024 a 1.19 WHIP in 33 starts. One would think he could get back to that level of performance, which would be a bargain at $3.3M. Personally I think the team should eventually put him in the bullpen if he can’t get back to a 4th starter level, and would a $3M middle reliever be too much? Perhaps. But, if you non-tender the guy you’re telling me that one of these healthy current 40-man arms is taking his place: Lord, Williams, Lao, Eder. Not seeing it. Unless the new GM is planning on a big FA splash, but then the team still needs relievers. I’d tender him.
So, of the 7 guys:
- Locks to tender: Gore, Gray, Abrams, Cavalli
- No good reason not to tender right now: Garcia, Irvin
- In jeopardy of being Non-Tendered: Adams
Conclusions: Honestly, for the arguments made above, I’d tender all seven right now, and if you can find a replacement for Adams or Irvin, so be it. I can’t see cutting loose all three of Garcia, Irvin, and Adams.
Post non-tender deadline update: I’ll update this post with the actual Tender decisions to see if I got any wrong.
Post Publishing updates: corrected Josiah Gray’s name per JohnC comment.;