It was a tough start, but Jose A Ferrer is turning things around and is becoming the guy we know he can be
If you look at Jose A Ferrer’s season numbers, you will not be impressed. He has a 5.59 ERA in 28 appearances. However, when you look under the hood and examine his recent performances, it is easy to see that there is more than what meets the eye.
Despite Ferrer’s sky high ERA, the underlying metrics suggest he has been very unlucky. His FIP sits at 3.04 and his xERA is 3.16. A lot of this comes down to bad batted ball luck. As a sinker baller who relies heavily on ground balls, Ferrer will always be at the mercy of the BABIP gods. If those ground balls are hit to guys and they are making plays, Ferrer will look great. If they are finding holes, the Nationals southpaw will have some problems.
Right now his BABIP sits at a very high .341 mark, well above the .274 number he was at last year. However, it was higher before his most recent run of success where he has been commanding the ball better and relying more on that power sinker.
In Ferrer’s last nine outings after his blowup against the Guardians, he has only allowed one run and five hits in nine innings. Interestingly, he has not been getting the job done with strikeouts, only having five. He has had batters living on the ground with his heavy sinker.
On the season, Ferrer has a 62% ground ball, which ranks in the 98th percentile on Baseball Savant. That has been increasing every time he takes the ball lately. When you see Ferrer these days, it is a heavy dose of his upper 90’s sinker. On the season, Ferrer is throwing his sinker 70% of the time, but in May he has bumped that up to 74%.
That is allowing him to flourish. He is becoming that Zack Britton type of profile. Obviously Ferrer has a ways to go to reach those heights, but there are a lot of similarities there. Both rely heavily on power sinkers from the left side to get ground balls. While his changeup and slider are solid pitches, they take a back seat to that sinker.
The Nationals bullpen has been a lot better lately, and that turnaround has coincided with when Ferrer got back on track. Those meltdowns against Cleveland in early May were the low point for both Ferrer and the unit as a whole. They were becoming a sport wide laughing stock.
However, with Ferrer and Cole Henry pitching well, the Nats now have a bridge to their reliable closer Kyle Finnegan. The Nats also have some other supplemental arms that can do a decent job at times in Jackson Rutledge, Andrew Chafin and sometimes Jorge Lopez. It is not an elite unit by any means, but it has now become the average to slightly below average ‘pen fans were craving for in April. They are not torpedoing the season anymore, which is nice.
I had big expectations for Ferrer entering the season, giving him the dreaded “future closer” label. He made me look really bad early on, and while he still has a ways to go to prove me right, he is showing the things that made me so intrigued. Not many left handers have that kind of power sinker, while also having decent control.
Another under the radar aspect of Ferrer’s game is that he does not walk many guys. He walked a stellar 1.69 batters per nine innings last year and is at 2.48 this year, still much better than average. With that sinker, Ferrer does not allow many homers either. In the 61 innings he has throws since the start of last season, he has only allowed 2 home runs.
So yes, Ferrer will allow his fair share of singles, usually it won’t be enough to hurt him. This season he has gotten unlucky, so teams have been able to string some hits together to start rallies. However, he has gotten that under control.
Despite the slow start, I am still very bullish about Jose A Ferrer. He is going to be a mainstay in this Nationals bullpen for years to come, and should be able to occupy a high leverage role.