Spring training is now just a few weeks away but many free agents are still unsigned, with Alex Bregman arguably being the most notable. The Tigers are one club that have been connected to him but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that talks are “at a standstill.”
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR ranked Bregman the #3 free agent of the winter, behind Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. Soto and Burnes are both now signed, leaving Bregman as the top guy still out there. We predicted a seven-year, $182MM deal that ended up being sort of a midpoint for Bregman’s negotiations earlier in the offseason. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman $156MM over six years, though the third baseman was trying to get to $200MM.
Rather than meet in the middle, Houston walked away. They lined up a deal with the Cardinals for Nolan Arenado, though Arenado used his no-trade clause to quash that. Instead, they acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs and signed Christian Walker to take over at first base. Since then, Bregman has been connected to clubs like the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and others, but without much apparent momentum.
The Cubs reportedly sniffed around the possibility of a short-term deal for Bregman but agent Scott Boras said last week that Bregman wasn’t considering that path. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer also recently downplayed the possibility of the Cubs getting involved. “I think likely,” Hoyer said at Cubs Convention a few days ago, when asked if the Cubs’ third baseman is already in the organization. “Certainly, we’ll look to supplement. Infield is an area we’re focused on (for the bench), but I think the likelihood is yes.”
Matt Shaw is perhaps the best solution there but he has not yet made his major league debut. There’s no guarantee he will hit the ground running in 2025, so there’s an argument for adding someone established, but it seems the Cubs are trying to be more opportunistic than aggressive in Bregman’s market.
It makes for something of a staring contest with the 2025 season approaching. It was around this time last year that Boras started pivoting to short-term deals for Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Boras has apparently made that turn with client Pete Alonso, as Alonso’s camp reportedly pitched a three-year deal to the Mets recently.
But with Bregman still holding out hope for a longer deal, it seems to be leading to the general sluggishness of the third base market. The Tigers have had a fairly quiet offseason, with one-year deals for Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres being their primary moves so far. They have Jace Jung and Matt Vierling as potential in-house options at the hot corner, so they have a bit of leverage to wait out Bregman.
With Vierling also capable of playing the outfield, Jung seems like the logical choice for third base right now. He struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances last year but that was a small-sample debut of 94 plate appearances. He didn’t have those kind of strikeout rates in the minors and still managed to draw a lot of walks while making his major league debut. Like with Shaw, there’s no guarantee that he can take the job and run with it but the Tigers might feel they have enough cover to not go crazy on a Bregman deal.
As long as Bregman stays out there, it seems to be preventing other dominoes from falling. The Cardinals came into the winter looking to do something of a reset but they haven’t been able to execute it yet, which seems to be at least partially because Arenado wanted clarity on Bregman’s situation before he’d commit to being traded. That has left St. Louis in a sort of holding pattern where they might just keep Arenado and other veterans into the start of the 2025 season.
Daniel Kramer of MLB.com also reports that the Bregman situation is leaving the Mariners playing a waiting game. While the M’s are not in on Bregman, they are impacted by the situation nonetheless. Kramer writes that the M’s “believe they’re positioned to make a notable move before Spring Training” but are holding on to see if a Bregman deal sparks movement elsewhere, since upgrading at third is on their to-do list.
Seattle has been fairly quiet this winter, with their signing of infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year, $3.5MM deal being their most notable move. Kramer reports that the M’s don’t plan to deploy him at second and he will be in the mix for playing time at first base more than anywhere else. That perhaps suggests Solano will be platooning with Luke Raley, since Solano is better against lefties and Raley the opposite.
For third base, Kramer floats various possible scenarios that could come to pass as the offseason progresses. He mentions that the Red Sox could land Bregman, which could perhaps make someone like Triston Casas more available. Casas doesn’t play third but it could perhaps lead to Solano moving across the diamond for more time over there. Kramer also floats the possibility of the Tigers signing Bregman and making Jung available, or a similar situation with someone on the Blue Jays like Orelvis Martínez or Addison Barger. It’s also possible that infielders like Luis Arráez of the Padres or Willi Castro of the Twins become more available once Bregman is off the board.
Until then, the Mariners are left laying in the cut, though they have explored other options. They had talks with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner and Bellinger, though the Hoerner deal seemed to become less likely when Paredes was sent to Houston in the Kyle Tucker deal. Perhaps the Hoerner trade talks could be revisited if Bregman ends up a Cub, which is perhaps another reason for the M’s to wait. The Bellinger connection was reported earlier in the offseason.
Another path the M’s considered, according to Kramer, was getting Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. However, it seems Texas didn’t feel great about dealing Lowe within their division, which led to him being dealt to the Nationals instead.
For now, it all feels like the part of the standoff where everyone has their hand by their holster, waiting for movement. It’s possible that bodies start dropping once someone flinches, but it’s a staredown for the time being.