One of the biggest prospect evaluation shops has dropped its big publication; lets do a reaction to Baseball America’s handbook release and its ranking of our top 40 (!) prospects. I can’t recall the last time they extended out past 30, so bravo to them for doing a deep dive into a shallow pool of Nationals prospects.
Thanks to Luke Erickson over at Nationalsprospects.com for the data. See Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 for the full list of the 40 players. Here’s the full list in order 1-40:
| Rank | Last Name | First Name | Position | Yr/Acq |
| 1 | Ruiz | Keibert | C | 2014 IFA |
| 2 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) | 2020 1st |
| 3 | House | Brady | SS | 2021 1st |
| 4 | Antuna | Yasel | SS | 2016 IFA |
| 5 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) | 2019 IFA |
| 6 | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) | 2020 2nd |
| 7 | Adon | Joan | RHP (Starter) | 2016 IFA |
| 8 | Carrillo | Gerardo | RHP (Starter) | 2016 IFA |
| 9 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) | 2019 1st |
| 10 | Cruz | Armando | SS | 2020 IFA |
| 11 | Thompson | Mason | RHP (Reliever) | 2016 3rd |
| 12 | Adams | Riley | C | 2017 3rd |
| 13 | Ramirez | Aldo | RHP (Starter) | 2018 IFA |
| 14 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) | 2018 IFA |
| 15 | Cronin | Matt | LHP (Reliever) | 2019 4th |
| 16 | Cluff | Jackson | SS | 2019 6th |
| 17 | Casey | Donovan | OF (Corner) | 2017 20th |
| 18 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) | 2021 2nd |
| 19 | Cate | Tim | LHP (Starter) | 2018 2nd |
| 20 | Infante | Samuel | SS | 2020 2nd |
| 21 | Parker | Mitchell | LHP (Starter) | 2020 5th |
| 22 | Lee | Evan | LHP (Starter) | 2018 15th |
| 23 | Pineda | Israel | C | 2016 IFA |
| 24 | Marte | Daniel | OF (CF) | 2018 IFA |
| 25 | Quintana | Roismar | OF (CF) | 2019 IFA |
| 26 | Barrera | Tres | C | 2016 6th |
| 27 | Romero | Seth | LHP (Starter) | 2017 1st |
| 28 | Denaburg | Mason | RHP (Starter) | 2018 1st |
| 29 | Barley | Jordy | SS | 2016 IFA |
| 30 | Millas | Drew | C | 2019 7th |
| 31 | Shuman | Seth | RHP (Starter) | 2019 6th |
| 32 | Mendoza | Drew | 3B | 2019 3rd |
| 33 | Guasch | Richard | RHP (Starter) | 2018 IFA |
| 34 | White | T.J. | OF (Corner) | 2021 5th |
| 35 | Boissiere | Branden | OF (Corner) | 2021 3rd |
| 36 | Peterson | Todd | RHP (starter) | 2019 7th |
| 37 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) | 2020 NDFA |
| 38 | Mendez | Ricardo | OF (CF) | 2016 IFA |
| 39 | Saenz | Dustin | LHP (Starter) | 2021 4th |
| 40 | Powell | Holden | RHP (Reliever) | 2020 3rd |
So, first things first: the top 10 in the handbook are the exact same top 10, in the same order, as the BA top 10 they released back in October 2021. I reacted to that list at length last October, so I won’t repeat my criticisms too heavily here. I will say this: clearly to me the BA boys had their list back then and have not done much in the way of additional analysis, because this new list does not include our shiny new IFA Cristian Vaquero. And honestly, its a pretty big omission given the fact that he signed several weeks ago. I suppose it implies that the handbook went to print a couple of months ago … but in today’s media landscape it seems like a pretty bad miss. In the world of blogging and internet-driven media, delays due to book binding and printing can make information “dated” pretty quickly.
Anyway, one with the observations.
- Same 1-3 as everyone else. Ruiz over Cavalli, which I’m ok with.
- We’ve covered Antuna at #4 at length; my stance is pretty clear.
- The Arms at 5-8 are all pretty defensible and are mostly in line with what we’ve been seeing.
- Rutledge remains in their top 10, despite his 2021. This, believe it or not, is considered “low” on Rutledge as compared to most of the other shops so far. How are they so high on Antuna but are low-man on Rutledge?
So, here we go with the guys ranked 11-40.
- #11: Mason Thompson. Seriously? A 5.74 ERA in AAA in 2021, then after we acquired him his MLB stat line was as follows: 4.15 ERA., 5.71 FIP, 21/14 K/BB in 21 innings to a 99 ERA+. Ok great: a below league average RH middle reliever. Is that a near top 10 prospect? I mean, Andres Machado had a far better season in 2021 as a RH middle reliever: he was never ranked in our top 10 as a prospect. We cycle in and out failed starters as 6th inning RH relievers all the time; they’re one of the most fungible assets in the game. If we’re valuing near replacement level players so highly, then why aren’t all our backup AAA catchers ranked in the top 10 too? (Ahem, see next).
- #12 Riley Adams: not even ranked in the top 30 by some shops (including Fangraphs), but #12 in our system. I mean, if the value of a prospect is so heavily skewed towards MLB-readiness, why not just rank our entire AAA team in our top 10?
- Lots of variation of opinion on De La Rosa: some have him top 10, others in the mid-teens. BA comes in at #14.
- Jackson Cluff at #16, whereas he wasn’t even in the top 50 of prospects1500. Wow. That’s a lot of juice on one month-long AFL stretch, especially considering how mediocre his 2021 regular season was.
- Tim Cate at #19; they still have some faith, at least more than other shops.
- Romero and Denaburg together at #27 and #28: fitting. The two worst 1st round picks in our history (well, except maybe for Aaron Crowe) are still hanging on the outskirts of the top 30.
- One of the few shops to give any love to our pair of former Oakland High-A starters Shuman and Guasch, coming in at #31 and #33.
- T.J. White: #34. Wow. Other shops have him in the upper teens. Where’s the love for a high draft pick who actually hit this year? Why would this guy be so low, as compared to De La Rosa, who is basically the same age and was badly outperformed?
- This is the first list naming Dustin Saenz to any spot; he was a 4th round Lefty out of TAMU who only threw a handful of pro innings in 2021; not much to go on. A 4th round SEC hurler should have more expectations.
- Coming in at #40 is Holden Powell. Again, curious. If they like relievers so much, why not give Powell (or Cronin or a few others) more credit?
Guys completely unranked of note: Vaquero as previously mentioned. Jake Alu, Yoander Rivero. Both Irvin and Schaller are completely out of the rankings now due to lost injury seasons.
I dunno. Maybe this list isn’t too bad. Outside of a couple of curious spots in the top 10, the rest of the list is more or less pretty defendable.
More prospect rankings are coming this week, so stay tuned. Keith Law is releasing all his data this week and we’ll have a reaction piece because I like his analysis.