The first major shop to release a significant ranking for the 2024 prospect season has come out, and it is the standard bearer Baseball America. This year i’ll keep a running list of every ranking that i’ve seen and just build on it as i post. So far, here’s what we’ve seen:
Here is a list of Every Nats prospect list i’ve ever captured. It was last uploaded 1/25/24 to capture the data from last June to today. There’s now 223 ranking lists in this xls, dating to the Baseball America Nov 2004 ranking for our 2004 prospects (#1 prospect for the system in Nov 2004? Mike Hinckley. ouch).
Here’s the pre-2024 list of prospect ranks that have been published so far.
- BA’s pre-read top 10, announced 11/6/23 (link now defaults to top 30 released today; no changes from the top 10 in Nov to now, a slight indictment perhaps of the BA process)
- Prospects361 top 10, released 11/24/23
- MLBPipeline top 30, post rule5/pre off-season analysis released 12/7/23. Note, the MLBPipeline link always defaults to the current, but i retain the rankings at the time of the capture into an XLS
- Baseball America 2024 top 30 1/24/24: this post
Still to come: Baseball Prospectus, MLBPipeline, Eric Longenhagen/Fangraphs, Keith Law/the Athletic, Prospects1500, Bleacher Report, CBSSports, ProspectsLive, and Prospect Digest. So, lots to come.
Here’s a direct link to the Baseball America 2024 Nats top 30, which is behind a paywall but i’m a subscriber so I’ll list them here. It has detailed scouting reports on all 30 players, which is great especially for the new IFAs.
| BA top 30 | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | Wood | James | OF (Corner) |
| 3 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 4 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 5 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 6 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 7 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 8 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 9 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 10 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 11 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 12 | Hurtado | Victor | OF |
| 13 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 14 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 15 | Herz | DJ | LHP (Starter) |
| 16 | Lipscomb | Trey | 3B |
| 17 | Nunez | Nasim | SS |
| 18 | Young | Jacob | OF (CF) |
| 19 | Pinckney | Andrew | OF (Corner) |
| 20 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 21 | Pineda | Israel | C |
| 22 | Millas | Drew | C |
| 23 | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) |
| 24 | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 25 | Made | Kevin | SS |
| 26 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) |
| 27 | Cruz | Armando | SS |
| 28 | Baker | Darren | 2B |
| 29 | White | T.J. | OF (Corner) |
| 30 | Parker | Mitchell | LHP (Starter) |
Here’s some analysis, going from top to bottom.
- BA has the same basic top 4 for us as nearly every other shop at this point.
- Cavalli is now 25 and is the oldest guy on the top 30. A big portion of our future fortunes sit on his shoulders and his ability to come back at the #2 starter that he was purported to be prior to TJ.
- Morales up to #5 is great to see, especially given our (crummy) track record of 2nd round picks.
- Rutledge at #6 is great news. A year ago he was in the mid-teens at best on most lists. Now he’s on the verge of losing his rookie status in 2024. Based on where he was in 2022, even if he’s a 5th starter that’s found gold.
- Green down to #9. Ok so 139 strikeouts in 75 low-A games isn’t a good thing. His scouting report at BA is an interesting read. Here’s how they grade his tools: Scouting Grades Hit: 30 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60. that’s two 60s and a 70. Nobody has 60 power and 70 run; that’s like Eric Davis type combos. He’s a project.
- Our two big IFA signings this month (Victor Hurtado and Angel Feliz) come in at #12 and #24. Ok that’s good. They were both reasonable signings for IFAs; not the $4M for a 16yr old kind.
- We also picked up a new prospect with our Rule5 draftee, Nasim Nunez. Coincidentally, I wonder if Nunez’ drafting spells the end for Kieboom; he’s got no options, they’ve bought a starting 3B and a starting 1B, and he can’t play middle infield like Vargas and Nunez. Heck, even Alu has more positional flexibility than Kieboom.
- Both Bennett (TJ – out all of 2024) and Sykora (prep kid who threw zero innings in 2023) are ahead of DJ Herz. Herz, lest anyone forget, is just 23, solved AA, is on the 40-man roster and is certain to get looks this year. Um. what are we looking at here boys?
- Jacob Young at #18 … well I should hope so!! All he did was rise 3 levels last year and may very well be the starting CF if Robles gets hurt, again.
- Pineda and Millas back to back at 21 and 22. I think the BA staff has guidelines that say, “ok when you get to the mid 20s, just throw in their top-level catcher depth b/c we know they’ll get looks eventually).
- Kevin Made absolutely fell apart after we acquired him, and plummeted down the list. Hope he can recover.
- Mitchell Parker bringing up the rear at #30. So, #30 is where you put polished lefties who are on the 40 man who have solved three minor league levels by the age of 24. Got it
Missing names of note:
- Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano; both were $1.3M IFA signings last January, and who did near nothing all summer in 2023.
- Brennar Cox. As high as #11 on some lists last year. Geeze. Why do we ever draft prep kids?
- Andry Lara; finally someone ranks him realistically.
All in all, not much to complain about with this list.