The first big scouting shop just released their top 30 prospects for 2026, and it’s a doozy. There’s big deltas between theirs and what we know of so far from other shops, lots of recognition of players who had break-out seasons in 2025, and lots of new names from this time last year. Let’s take a look.
I’m going to add in their ranking from 2025 as part of the below table and part of the discussion.
| Current Rank | Jan 2025 Rank | First Name | Last Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not yet drafted | Eli | Willits | SS |
| 2 | 3 | Jarlin | Susana | RHP (Starter) |
| 3 | Not Yet Acquired | Harry | Ford | C |
| 4 | Not Yet Acquired | Luis | Perales | RHP (Starter) |
| 5 | 2 | Travis | Sykora | RHP (Starter) |
| 6 | 6 | Alex | Clemmey | LHP (Starter) |
| 7 | 5 | Seaver | King | SS |
| 8 | 11 | Luke | Dickerson | SS/CF |
| 9 | Not yet drafted | Coy | James | SS |
| 10 | 15 | Angel | Feliz | SS/3B |
| 11 | Not yet drafted | Landon | Harmon | RHP (Starter) |
| 12 | 40 | Sam | Peterson | OF (CF) |
| 13 | Not yet drafted | Ethan | Petry | 1B/OF (Corner) |
| 14 | 16 | Andrew | Pinckney | OF (Corner) |
| 15 | 36 | Jackson | Kent | LHP (Starter) |
| 16 | 22 | Yohandy | Morales | 3B |
| 17 | Not Yet IFA signed | German | Marconi | SS |
| 18 | 8 | Caleb | Lomavita | C |
| 19 | Not yet drafted | Miguel | Sime Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 20 | Outside top 40 | Jorgelys | Mota | SS |
| 21 | Not yet drafted | Ronny | Cruz | SS |
| 22 | Not yet Acquired | Christian | Franklin | OF (CF) |
| 23 | Not yet Acquired | Sean Paul | Linan | RHP (Starter) |
| 24 | 35 | Yoel | Tejeda Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 25 | Outside top 40 | Riley | Cornelio | RHP (Starter) |
| 26 | Outside top 40 | Andrew | Alvarez | LHP (Starter) |
| 27 | Outside top 40 | Phillips | Glasser | SS |
| 28 | Outside top 40 | Nauris | De La Cruz | OF (Corner) |
| 29 | 17 | Brayan | Cortesia | SS |
| 30 | Not yet R5 drafted | Griff | McGarry | RHP (Starter) |
So, Here’s some macro facts from just BA’s top 30 today versus one year ago:
- 12 of the 30 are new to the Organization since Jan 2025
- 6 from the 2025 Draft (Willits, James, Harmon, Petry, Sime, Cruz)
- 4 from Trades (Ford, Perales, Franklin, Linan)
- 1 from the 2025 IFA class (Marconi)
- 1 from Rule-5 in December (McGarry)
- 2 of the top 30 were outside of the top 30 last year but in the “honorable mention” 30-40 range (Tejeda, Peterson)
- 5 of the top 30 were not listed in BA’s top 30 (or even their extended top 40) last year (Mota, Cornelio, Alvaraz, Glasser, and De La Cruz)
- 11 of LAST year’s top 30 are no longer eligible:
- 9 Graduated with enough MLB time: Crews, House, Cavalli, Lile, Hassell, Millas, Rutledge, Nunez, Lord)
- 1 have been traded (Bennett)
- 1 were DFA’d and are gone (Brzycky)
So, for as much as I’ve criticized the player development of the Rizzo regime … that’s an awful lot of guys matriculating to the majors and being productive parts of the MLB team. Perhaps you can quibble about how much they’re “contributing,” but when you push 9 prospects to the MLB roster in one year … that’s a win. Of course, many of these guys are the ones who are supposed to be contributing: of these 11 graduates, six were 1st rounders and another three were 2nd rounders. I have harped ad naseum about the Rizzo regime “blowing” basically every 2nd round pick (and a bunch of 1st rounders) for a decade straight … but now some of them are actually making it.
Ok, so that being said, lets run through some comments/observations on this list.
- #1 Willits has either been #1 or #2 on every ranking since his arrival. No surprise he’s top here. BA has him arriving 2028 at age 20, which is CJ Abrams’ last year before FA. Something tells me we’re not going to get to that point with CJ on this team, which means we’ll be putting a stop-gap at SS (Nunez?) or maybe Willits blasts through the minors Bryce Harper style and is starting at age 19.
- BA keeps Susana just above new high-profile acquisitions Ford and Perales despite his injuries last year. Other shops have him perhaps in-between the two.
- Sykora slots in at #5, just below the two guys we’ve just acquired. That implies he was #3 before we got these two guys in trade. I took some grief for dropping Sykora to 5th on my own list at the end of 2025’s season … when I republish that ranking in April I probably will adjust it slightly.
- There’s probably an implicit “gap” between our current top 5 and even to #6, Clemmey. The next 5 ranked guys are all relatively young as compared to the AA and AAA heavy top 5.
- King comes in at #7 … probably on the back of a few hot weeks in the AFL. That seems to be consistent where other shops have him ranked right now. I was very down on King in September, and now have rebounded, perhaps drinking the AFL kool-aid. I mean, we want the guy to succeed right?
- Dickerson somehow retains his top 10 ranking despite an awful season at the plate in 2025 and faces a positional conundrum shortly: who plays SS for Low-A next season? Luke may be finding another position. Luckily we already knew he was like a SS/CF coming out of HS.
- Our big money RHP 2025 prep kids (James, Harmon, Sime) come in ranked #9, #11, and #19 respectively. James (the 5th rounder) is highest here, over 3rd rounder Harmon (both got the same $$ figure). I know some pundits struggle to rank these kinds of guys: prep RHP are the riskiest of risky in the sport.
- The first big out of nowhere name: Sam Peterson at #12, one slot ahead of Petry. This guy blew up in 2025, nearly posting a 3/4/5 slash line in High-A as an 8th round pick the year before. That’d be some found gold right there if he continues to contribute. Also: 18/0 SB/CS in High-A and he plays a true CF. Sounds like a Jacob Young-type (an unheralded 7th round defense-first college bat).
- Pinckney at #14 just seems high. I just don’t see where he goes with this organization. He’s, what, 8th on the OF depth chart? (Wood, Hassell, Crews, Young, Wiemer, Lile, Franklin ahead of him): only 3 of them can play at a time. Seems like we should move him.
- Lomavita at #18 seems a bit low, and the acquisition of Ford really changes the trajectory of the entirely of our Catcher depth chart right now. I don’t think Ford is on the MLB team to open the season with just a few MLB ABs, but he’ll be starting in AAA. Which means Millas is either on the MLB bench or on the AAA bench. I’m not sure where Adams fits in; he signed a split contract (meaning he has negotiated his minor league salary), meaning they’re anticipating going to the minors … but he has no options left, which means he’ll have to pass through waivers to get off the 40-man. Should be interesting to see how this shakes out. My initial guess? Ruiz/Millas in MLB, Ford/Adams in AAA, Lomavita/Romero back in AA, Bazzell/Rombach in High-A, with all the starters just waiting to see if Ruiz can keep his starting job.
- Next up on the surprise inclusion list: Jorgelys Mota, 3B in Low-A. He’s starting to get noticed. He’s also part of a major log-jam in Low-A: the following guys are all solid prospects in the 18-20 year old range who play on the right side of the infield: Willits, Dickerson, Feliz and Mota. That’s 4 guys for 2 spots in Low-A where they all belong. Maybe one of them is pushed up to High-A, or maybe they all juggle ABs and IPs in Fredericksburg, maybe Dickerson goes to CF.
- Cornelio’s great 2025 finally gets him onto the BA list at #25. He was the Nats Minor League Pitcher of the Year and deservedly gets included in the BA top 30.
- Alvarez, who has almost never been considered a prospect, comes in at #26. I’m super curious to see how Alvarez’ 2026 shakes out. Is he really in the mix for a MLB rotation spot? I mean, Small Sample Size of course but in 5 late season starts he had a 2.31 ERA that was decently supported by his FIP (3.39). Do you stick him in the bullpen? Does he have the right kind of stuff to be in a MLB pen? Or, do you put him in AAA again to keep him stretched out? I dunno. Good problem to have I suppose.
- Phillip Glasser gets ranked by a major shop for the first time ever, after his Nats Minor League Hitter of the year season in 2025. He’ll be a starting corner OF in AAA in 2026, but he’s got the same problem Pinckney does: positional congestion. Of course, Lile looked completely blocked at the beginning of 2025 as well, then hit so well you kind of have to find a spot for him in the lineup. So, things can change.
- Nauris De La Cruz gets the #29 spot after mostly solving DSL pitching this year; final slash line .294/.448/.450. He’ll be state-side in the FCL to start 2026. Hopefully Florida food will help him fill out (6’0″ and 160?!).
- Our new rule-5 pick Griff McGarry comes in at #30; he should make the MLB bullpen and graduate pretty quickly.
Notable Players left off the BA top 30:
- Eriq Swan: I may have the trade-acquisition over-rated on my list.
- Orelvis Martinez, AAA MLFA signing who MLBpipeline has at like #20 right now
- Andry Lara: I’ve been down on him for a while but many still hold out hope.
- Daniel Hernandez: an interesting omission given that he’s as high as #13 elsewhere and was a big-money IFA signing, but he struggled in his first DSL Season (don’t worry, he was super young upon signing)
- Cristhian Vaquero: I’m guessing he’s still hanging around in the 30-40 range on BA’s list, like he does on others.
- Josh Randall: Edge of the top 30 type on many lists.
- Tyler Stuart: TJ knocks him off for a bit; hopefully can get back.
- Cayden Wallace: hard to believe how far he’s fallen. Maybe he can put together a solid season and regain some prospect status. Would love to see him hit to his capabilities and fill the 2B slot in the bigs so we can move some guys around.
- Victor Hurtado: that $2.8M in 2024 IFA bonus not looking good
- Elijah Green; phew he’s getting up there as our biggest 1st round bust ever, if not already there.