Kade Anderson, Jamie Arnold, Liam Doyle: Which College Lefty Stands Out Above The Rest?

A clear top 3 of college left-handers has emerged, but which one is the most worthy of going first overall?

Entering the 2025 draft season, LHP Jamie Arnold of Florida State was the favorite to be the first pitcher selected in the 2025 MLB Draft. After a few weeks of play, it looked like LHP Liam Doyle of Tennessee had possibly taken that crown away from Arnold. Now, as we enter Super Regional weekend, LHP Kade Anderson of LSU has thrown his name into the mix to be the first pitcher off the board in July. All 3 lefties are elite talents who should hear their names called in the first 10 picks of the draft, but which one is the best, and which is the most likely to be picked by the Nationals first overall?

The Numbers

Kade Anderson: 3.28 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 33.5 K-BB%

Jamie Arnold: 3.12 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 26 K-BB%

Liam Doyle: 2.84 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 35 K-BB%

At first glance, the numbers heavily favor Doyle, who leads in all 4 categories while pitching in the SEC, the toughest conference in college baseball. His 35 K-BB% was the best among starters in the nation in 2025, and trails only Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, and Paul Skenes in the past 4 years. Anderson trails Doyle in the 4 categories, but was a victim of some bad luck as seen by his FIP that is over half a run lower than his ERA, and also pitched better than Doyle down the stretch of the season. His 33.5 K-BB% ranked second for starters in the nation, right behind Doyle, and puts him in the elite company of arms in that range over the past 4 years. Arnold is the odd man out of the group, posting largely the worst numbers in a worse (although still very strong) conference than Anderson and Doyle. Arnold had starts where he flashed brilliance and made it clear why he was a top prospect, but also games where he’d struggle to find the zone and would get hit around.

The Arsenals (Grades according to MLB Pipeline)

Kade Anderson: 60 Grade Fastball and Changeup, 55 Grade Slider, 50 Grade Curveball, 55 Control

Jamie Arnold: 60 Grade Fastball and Slider, 50 Grade Changeup, 55 Grade Control

Liam Doyle: 70 Grade Fastball, 55 Grade Slider, Cutter, and Splitter, 50 Grade Control

While on paper Doyle’s arsenal appears to be the best of the trio, he is more of a one-pitch guy currently than the grades let on. His fastball is one of the best pitches in college baseball, but when it’s not on, he tends to struggle as his secondaries are solid but not elite. His command grade is also the lowest of the three, with his issues not necessarily being walks, but rather leaving pitches over the plate to be hammered. You can’t teach the kind of fastball Doyle throws, but he’ll need to expand the rest of his arsenal in pro ball. For my money, Anderson has the best pitch mix of the trio, with 4 solid offerings including a devastating fastball/changeup combination. Anderson only sits 92–94 with his heater, but his secondaries keep hitters off balance and allow it to play up. There is also room for him to add weight and, in turn, velocity to his 6’2” frame as he matures. Combined with his solid command grade, Anderson should be a quick mover through any minor league system due to his big league-ready arsenal and ability to locate. While Arnold’s fastball/slider combo rivals both Anderson and Doyle for the best 2 pitch mix of the group, his lack of other options makes him the odd man out again. His command is solid, but when one pitch isn’t working for him, hitters can sit the other one and either spit on it or hammer it. He sits 94–95 with his fastball and has a very deceptive delivery, so he absolutely could jump these 2 with the development of a third great pitch in pro ball, but for now, he trails them for me.

My Rankings

1. Liam Doyle (Ceiling: Ace, Floor: Great closer)
2. Kade Anderson (Ceiling: SP2, Floor: SP4)
3. Jamie Arnold (Ceiling: SP2, Floor: Good closer)

While all 3 of Anderson, Arnold, and Doyle are elite talents who will hear their name called very early in July, to me, only one is a worthy choice first overall, and that is Liam Doyle of Tennessee. While he isn’t my preference with the pick (Team Holliday), if I were to select an arm, it would be him because of his ceiling. When you have the first overall pick, you are looking for a potential franchise changer, not a high-floor potential SP2 or SP3. While a guy like Kade Anderson may have a higher floor and offer less risk, he doesn’t have the traits of a future ace quite like Doyle does. While I like Arnold quite a bit as a prospect and think he will make whatever team takes him happy, his ceiling doesn’t quite reach Doyle heights, and his floor is lower than Anderson’s, making him 3rd in the group (and somewhere between my SP3 and SP5 in the entire draft class). All 3 of these arms will be on display this weekend in the Super Regional round, and will be a great test of their abilities against elite competition.