Washington’s recent struggles set the stage for a bounce-back opportunity against a St. Louis team that’s also searching for answers.
After getting swept disappointingly, the Washington Nationals are at a season-low, resulting in the firing of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez. Sitting in last place in the National League East with a 37-53 record, Washington’s season is just about over in terms of competing for a playoff spot. There is plenty of time to showcase veterans that could be dealt with at the deadline, and young players blossoming throughout the rest of the season.
Playing in the competitive National League Central, 48-43 is good enough for third place in the division. St. Louis has played well despite the lack of production from players like Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado. St. Louis is well in the playoff hunt and could be a buyer at the deadline. However, if the wheels start to fall off near the deadline, St. Louis could sell off key veterans and initiate a grueling rebuild process.
This is a chance for Washington to respond well after an embarrassing sweep, while St. Louis is trying to close the gap in the National League Central. Let’s dive into the stats.
TEAM STATS
OFFENSE
Led by Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson, the St. Louis offense as a whole has been middle-of-the-pack, which is where they were expected to be. Arenado hasn’t found his footing, and Willson Contreras started the season on a horrific start; their slumps have put St. Louis in a tough position. As a team, they are batting .251 (12th), scored 414 runs (11th), hit 91 home runs (19th), have an on-base percentage of .321 (14th), and a slugging percentage of .392 (17th).
PITCHING
Same as the offense, the pitching staff in St. Louis has been middle-of-the-pack, but Sonny Gray has continued his great work from seasons past. Matthew Liberatore has pitched quite well, posting a 3.70 ERA through ten starts. Phil Maton and JoJo Romero are holding down the bullpen, but the rest of the bullpen has struggled at times, like All-Star closer Ryan Helsley. As a team, they have a 4.08 ERA (19th), allowed 84 home runs (5th), 1.27 WHIP (18th), and teams are batting .251 against them (22nd).
GAME ONE – Tuesday 7:45 EDT
WAS: RHP Jake Irvin (7-3) – 18 G, 4.71 ERA, 75 SO, 1.29 WHIP, 85 ERA+
STL: RHP Sonny Gray (8-3) – 17 G, 3.51 ERA, 107 SO, 1.08 WHIP, 118 ERA+
Right-hander Jake Irvin’s highs have been pretty solid, but his lows are lower than anyone in Washington’s rotation. After giving up eight earned runs against the Los Angeles Angels, he bounced back against the tough Detroit Tigers team, going six innings and allowing three earned runs in a win against one of the best teams in baseball.
Sonny Gray, when healthy, has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. Gray has proven yet again that he is the best arm in St. Louis and will continue to handle a heavy workload. After throwing a complete game against the Houston Astros, Gray struggled against the Pittsburgh Pirates in an embarrassing series for St. Louis. Gray threw 6.1 innings and allowed four earned runs in a shutout loss.
GAME TWO – Wednesday, 7:45 EDT
WAS: LHP MacKenzie Gore (3-8) – 18 G, 3.11 ERA, 131 SO, 1.21 WHIP, 129 ERA+
STL: RHP Andre Pallante (5-4) – 17 G, 4.10 ERA, 63 SO, 1.28 WHIP, 101 ERA+
Even though Washington has struggled this year, MacKenzie Gore has become one of the best pitchers in baseball. After being voted to the All-Star Game, Washington should have their ace for years to come. In his last start, Gore threw 5.1 innings, allowing three hits and two runs in a win against the Detroit Tigers.
After a great 2024 season, St. Louis is seeing the talent Pallante has in his last three starts. Allowing a combined two runs in that span, Pallante is providing great innings for a team desperate for solid starting pitching. Pallante had arguably his best start of the season, throwing seven innings of one-hit baseball and shutting out the Pittsburgh Pirates, however, St. Louis lost 1-0.
GAME THREE – Thursday 7:45 EDT
WAS: RHP Michael Soroka (3-6) – 12 G, 5.40 ERA, 70 SO, 1.14 WHIP, 75 ERA+
STL: RHP Miles Mikolas (4-6) – 17 G, 5.26 ERA, 60 SO, 1.34 WHIP, 79 ERA+
In Soroka’s last five starts, Washington has not won a game, and his last start was one of his worst all season. After allowing seven earned runs in a disappointing 11-2 loss, Soroka’s value may have dipped, hurting Washington while heading to the trade deadline.
Mikolas is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, giving up home run after home run to the Chicago Cubs on the Fourth of July. He has been disappointing this season, and I believe we are seeing the wheel fall off someone who was once a stellar pitcher in baseball.
CONCLUSION
Washington is a dumpster fire after firing their general manager and their manager mid-season, but with some good series wins leading up to the trade deadline, they could ship away veterans on their squad. If the young core can progress and continue to get better, this team could have a bright future ahead.