Michael Soroka has the second highest ceiling in the Washington Nationals rotation

Last night, Michael Soroka showed how dominant he can be. Besides MacKenzie Gore, he has the best stuff in the Nationals rotation

On a few occasions, Michael Soroka has been so close to completing a wonderful start. However, each time he stumbled in the sixth inning, hurting his final line. Last night against the Texas Rangers was different though. Soroka found a way to finish the job and go six scoreless innings, a feat he has been close to accomplishing a couple times.

Against an underperforming Rangers offense, Soroka feasted. He had all four of his pitches working and was able to gets whiffs as well as quick outs. Soroka was pounding the zone with his fastball, which often forced quick outs. When he did get ahead in the count, he unleashed his vicious slurve.

It is stuff like this that convinces me that Soroka has the second highest ceiling in this rotation, only behind MacKenzie Gore. His stuff is simply better than the likes of Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker. He has more velocity on his fastball and more life on his pitches in general. Stuff models bare this out, with all of Soroka’s pitches grading out well.

While Soroka has a 4.86 ERA, we are already seeing a lot of progress. In his first few starts, Soroka faded as he got deeper into starts. The sixth inning has been a major stumbling block for him, allowing 10 runs in 3 innings of work. Despite getting into a jam in the sixth last night, he found his way out of it which is major progress.

Soroka’s background could explain some of his sixth inning troubles. The last time he has had a healthy season as a full time starter was 2019. After multiple achilles tears, stints in the bullpen and struggles, Soroka is finally back as a full time starter. That means going deep into ball games is something that has become unfamiliar for him.

As Soroka builds up more stamina, I am confident that he will solve his sixth inning woes. If he does, he could become a rotation fixture for the Nationals. Despite his unimpressive ERA, Soroka’s xERA sits at a stellar 2.96. He is getting a lot of ground balls and pounding the zone.

When you look at Soroka’s metrics there are some things that pop. He is only walking 4.6% of batters this season. Last year he had a big walk problem, issuing free passes 12.7% of the time. It is clear he made a big emphasis on pumping strikes with his fastball. If anything, he lives in the zone too much, which leads to elevated hit totals.

While he does pump the zone, he is doing a good job avoiding barrels. His 3.7% barrel rate is in the 94th percentile. Some of that has to do with his ground ball generation. Soroka is not the pure sinkerballer he was in his Braves days, but he still has a GB% above 50%.

There are a lot of positive signs for Soroka and he looks poised to go on a run. It will be interesting to see what the Nationals do with him. Soroka signed a one-year deal with the Nats, and if they sell at the deadline, teams will be asking about him.

However, despite being a free agent pickup and debuting in 2018, Soroka is only 27 years old. Something that blew my mind is that Soroka is less than a year older than Cade Cavalli. While Cavalli is still a prospect, Soroka has had multiple arcs to a winding big league career.

If Soroka can turn those expected numbers into actual results, Mike Rizzo should consider sitting down with Soroka and talking about an extension. He is not the running mate MacKenzie Gore needs, but he could be an option in the middle of the rotation. While the rotation could become crowded, I trust Soroka more than guys like Cavalli and Josiah Gray.

This was a very interesting pickup by Mike Rizzo. He took a chance on Soroka, who was 0-10 on a historically bad White Sox team. However, when you looked under the hood last year, you could see some intriguing things. That has continued into this season. Now Rizzo has a choice, does he want to re-sign Soroka, who doesn’t turn 28 until August, or does he want to cash in.

Either way, Michael Soroka showed how exciting he can be. Other than MacKenzie Gore, nobody else in the Nats rotation has stuff like his. With all Soroka has gone through in his career, it is good to see him back on track. Despite all the missed time, there is still plenty of time for Soroka to continue the second act he is starting now. He is getting better each time out, and it is tough not to be impressed.