MLB Draft: Why the Washington Nationals took Eli Willits first overall

The Washington Nationals surprised the baseball world when they made Eli Willits the youngest number one overall pick ever

In a year where the race for the number one pick always felt wide open, the Washington Nationals threw in one last curveball at the end. They selected the other Oklahoma high school shortstop with a big league dad, not Ethan Holliday, but Eli Willits. The Nationals made him the youngest number one pick ever.

Despite his tender age, Willits is known more for his polish than anything. He does so many things at a high level on the baseball field. Many considered him the most well rounded prospect in the draft, and I would agree.

Other high school shortstops had bigger individual tools. Ethan Holliday has more power, Steele Hall has more speed, some would argue that Kayson Cunningham is a better pure hitter and Billy Carlson is a better fielder with a bigger arm. However, none of those guys combine all those tools like Willits does. He can do it all on the field and plays the game so hard.

Every time you see a highlight of Willits, it is so easy to see how hard he gets out of the box and how much he cares. Eli is the son of Reggie Willits, a solid big leaguer, but not a guy with crazy tools. You can see his father instilled a gamer like tenacity in his more talented son.

Unlike a Holliday, Willits is a no doubt shortstop who should be a borderline plus defender at the position. Given how many great defensive shortstops there are, he may not be a gold glover, but he should be in contention every year.

Willits is also a pure switch hitter who is very good from both sides. Some reports say he is slightly better from the left side, doing a better job of elevating the ball as a lefty, but he makes a ton of contact from both sides. Willits struck out just four times all season in high school, a much better clip than Ethan Holliday, who played the same competition.

However, let’s not kid ourselves, there was a financial component here. In this muddled but deep draft class, the Nats wanted as many shots at good players as possible. Willits, who is likely to take a heavily under slot bonus allows them to do that. If they take an Ethan Holliday, I am not sure it would be possible to take an A+ pick like Landon Harmon while not seriously compromising on the guys you take later.

In 2023, we saw the Nats go all in on their first three picks, going slot or above on all three. However, they had to take mostly lower ranked or older guys with their other picks. This year they did very similar stuff in rounds two and three, but will have more money to play with in later rounds to potentially take a shot on a guy like Jack Bauer.

Ethan Petry is a similar profile to a Yohandy Morales and Harmon is similar to a Travis Sykora, but unlike 2023, they have the money to make big moves later on in the draft and bring depth to the system. Would I have still taken Holliday, probably, but it is tough to say that this is a bad pick. If the Nats brass thought Willits was at or very close to Holliday’s level, there are good reasons to take Willits. He allows you to do more stuff with your slot money and he is not represented by Scott Boras.

One thing I am tired of seeing is this idea that Ethan Holliday was the no doubt best prospect in the class. There is a solid argument he was, and I would even tend to agree with it. Holliday has the most power and upside in the draft. However, there are some real concerns about his hit tool. He did not have a great summer and swung and missed at velocity more than you would like. Can he still be a great player, absolutely, but he was no slam dunk at number one.

Nationals fans, you can be excited about Eli Willits. He is a great prospect, who is a safe bet for a high schooler with good upside. At just 17 and with a projectable frame, he has the chance to grow into a lot more power than he is showing right now. Will he ever hit 30 homers, I doubt it, but he does not need to.

In a world where a guy like Geraldo Perdomo is on pace to put up a 5 win season, there are so many paths for Willits to provide value. Hitting .280 with 15 homers and a .780ish OPS does not sound mind blowing. However, if you can do that while playing good defender at shortstop, you are a highly valuable major league baseball player. There is a reason somebody like Dansby Swanson got paid $177 million.

Saying Willits could provide the value of a Swanson is not a stretch at all. Eli Willits is a great player with all around ability. He blends floor and ceiling as well as anybody in this class. It is not the sexiest pick, but Eli Willits is a great ballplayer.