Note: I wrote this mostly on July 9th, during a flurry of writing about the ASG, Home run derby, draft content, new prospect lists, etc. Yesterday, thanks to my forgetting to publish it, we already made a trade, so i’ve gotta get this going.
Thanks to an awful month of June, as the team barrels towards the end of July’s trade deadline, we sit with an 42-62 record, good for the 2nd worst in the National League (behind only the record breaking Colorado Rockies) and 3rd-worst in all of baseball (which won’t matter for the 2026 draft, since we’ll be kicked out of the top 10 regardless thanks to our being a “big market” team … you know, big market team that has no TV deal and spends like its based in Toledo despite being owned by a family with an estimated net worth of $6.4Billion … but i’m digressing). Our penny-pinching owner has whacked his long-time GM, who has proven quite adept at trades, and now we enter the 2025 trade bonanza with few assets other teams are targeting.
That rosy analysis notwithstanding, here’s what our trade deadline could look like.
Legit Trade Assets: Kyle Finnegan
When looking at MLB-wide trade candidate lists, the sole player we have who routinely appears on these lists is our closer, Finnegan. He’s on a one-year deal, he’s pitched very well (167 ERA+), and he’s just the kind of guy who can net a decent prospect for a playoff-chasing team looking for more bullpen help (which, lets be honest, is all of them).
Exceeeeeept…. just like last year, Finnegan has managed to engineer the destruction of his trade value right as teams started to look at him. He Blew up in successive appearances on 7/12 and again 7/18, which together raised his season ERA from 2.36 to 4.37. Awesome. he’s gone from maybe fetching a top-15 prospect to maybe fetching a couple of rookie league lottery tickets.
Likely return: couple of low-end lottery ticket prospects.
FA-to-be Starters: Mike Soroka
Soroka’s injury and underperformance makes it very unlikely he gets moved. He’s been hurt, and hasn’t pitched great even if his FIP flatters his ERA. But, if they can move him and pay the rest of his salary, maybe we can get a low-ranked/high-risk prospect, like an arm on someone’s Low-A team who’s injured. Soroka in theory can start or pitch in relief, but one of his most likely suitors (his old team Atlanta) is also out of the playoff race and are sellers.
Likely return here: nothing
FA-to-be Relievers: Law, Salazar, Chafin, Luis Garcia.
We’ve already released multiple one-year FA relievers for underperformance (Lopez, Sims, Poche), an indictment of now-departed Rizzo’s latest attempt to build a bullpen via retread FAs. Among those left, Law is done for the season with injury, Salazar has sucked, Chafin has been decent, and Garcia just got signed. I can’t see getting anything for anyone of these guys, maybe Chafin if someone wants a veteran lefty.
Likely return here: nothing
FA-to-be Position players: Bell, Rosario, DeJong
Bell and DeJong have been major disappointments from a “give a veteran a pillow contract and hope they perform enough to give us something tangible at the trade deadline” perspective. Rosario has been solid at the plate and can play basically anywhere on the field, but frankly the market for utility guy in a league where every team has 3-4 such guys stashed in AAA seems weak.
Update: I was completely wrong about Rosario’s value, and we ended up flipping him for the Yankees’ 20th ranked prospect Beeker and a solid-hitting DSL outfielder named Martinez. That’s more than I could have hoped for.
likely return here: whatever we can get.
FAs after 2026: Lowe, Williams
Williams hurt, again, and besides that has sucked and is now on the 60-day likely done for the season. Lowe is hovering around 100 OPS+ with some power but probably isn’t really raising anyone’s eyebrows for a 1B/DH replacement. He has one more Arb year next winter, is already at $10M and frankly could be a non-tender candidate if he sticks around. Could he get moved? Maybe, if we send the cash, but it’s worth remembering he was traded for a middle reliever last off-season, so the odds of getting much for him seems low.
Likely return here: nothing.
The Destroy the Fanbase confidence option: MacKenzie Gore
He’s at just $2.8M this year and has two more arb years. He will be a long shot to even get to $10M next off-season even if he finishes high in Cy Young voting, and as a pre-arb healthy Ace-level starter he would net a pretty penny. But … as we’ve discussed, rebuilding teams don’t frigging trade the cornerstone pieces of the damn rebuild. Gore is the kind of player you use to get back into respectability, not trade for assets that won’t come due for another 4 years.
I wrote all of that on July 9th before this team fired its GM and drafted four HS draftees who basically won’t appear before 2030, and I now openly question where we are as a franchise. Ownership isn’t spending money, and we’re drafting 17yr olds. I now wonder if the entire management structure is of the belief that this “rebuild” is now a failure and if we’re not preparing for a massive sell-off of our current assets who will be FAs before we can compete again. Gore is 1-A on this list, a Boras client (meaning he won’t sign an extension) who is a FA in two years. He’s healthy now, he’s in demand now, and while I don’t think he’s netting a Soto-esque package if someone offered us three legit prospects for him right now, does this team say no?
All our pre-Arb players: the rest of the team fits in here.
I see no reason to trade someone like Henry, or Wood, or Abrams, or Young, or anyone of this ilk. We want to leverage these guys while they’re still cheap and see if they turn into all stars.
Prediction? We get what we got for Rosario, a lottery ticket for Finnegan, and maybe move one other guy for a nothing-burger prospect. It’s just where we are; nothing left to cash in, and our off-season FAs have really disappointed.