This is the 6th and last monthly review of all our rotations for the 2025, checking in on the latest month’s worth of production and doing some analysis. For this final post, instead of isolating September’s performance (since the Minor teams only played part of the month), we’ll look at these pitchers’ season-long performance and give the beginnings of some 2026 thoughts as to what next year might look like (a post I like writing a bit later, but which i’ll start the leg work on here).
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important links for this analysis:
- Big Board
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats
We’ll start with the Majors.
- Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
- End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
- End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
- End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
- End of July 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Lord, Ogasawara
- End of Aug 2025: Irvin, Parker, Lord, Cavalli, Alvarez
- End of Season 2025: Irvin, Lord, Cavalli, Alvarez, Parker/Gore
Changes in last Month: Gore returned from a late August DL trip and the team did a couple of weeks of 6-man rotation. Then they dumped Parker to the bullpen to go back to a 5-man plan when it was clear Alvarez’ debut wasn’t entirely a gimmick. Then Gore hit the DL again, pulling Parker back into the rotation to finish off the season.
Rotation Observations: The team finished 66-96, third worst in the league (though it won’t matter for the 2026 draft, as the Nats will pick 11th no matter what happens in the lottery thanks to being a revenue payor and participating in the 2025 lottery). A big reason for this record is the rotation; they ranked collectively 27th in total fWAR and 29th in ERA (ahead of only the 43-119 Colorado Rockies, who also get kicked out of the 2026 lottery despite the 3rd worst record in the modern age). Parker was demoted to the bullpen, laying the likely groundwork of being replaced in the 2026 rotation. But Irvin was just as bad, finishing dead last in several categories for qualified starters this year.
For the year, Gore had the best ERA+ of the group at 98, but seemed to tail off as the year went on. Physical Fatigue wearing down as a long season went on? Mental Fatigue of playing for a crap team? Lord’s splits as a starter were pretty bad all in all; he was 2 full ERA points better as a reliever. Cavalli’s return was on a par with Gore’s from a performance perspective, a good starting point for 2026. Alvarez had a 2.31 ERA and a 3.39 FIP in his five September starts: that’s something that clearly earns him a shot at next year’s rotation, even if most would think its unsustainable.
Bullpen comments: For the season, most of our existing bullpen was either mediocre/league average, or god-awful. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of cattle call we’ll have for replacements. Or if we have one at all: maybe its just a Rizzo thing to try to build bullpens that way. However (and this kind of buries the lead of my 2026 rotation prediction piece), I feel like 3/5ths of the rotation at the end of this year heads to the 2026 bullpen, perhaps buttressing it and giving us some performance next year.
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
- End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
- End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
- End of July 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Cavalli, Conley, Ogasawara
- End of Aug 2025: Alvarez, Conley, Luckham, Sampson, Cornelio
- End of Season 2025: Sokesky, Sampson, Shuman, Eder (Luckham DL, Conley and Cornelio restricted)
Changes since end of last month: The last month of AAA was chaotic, with lots of last minute paper moves to move guys on and off the restricted list or the DL to finish the season. Alvarez got deservedly called up, he was replaced by Eder coming off the DL (which he hit almost as soon as we traded for him). Then, Luckham hit the DL, replaced by Shuman. Cornelio and Conley got stashed on the restricted list at season’s end: they were replaced by Solesky coming back off the DL briefly and then the end of the season hitting before they could return Cornelio. So, really, the “rotation” for Sept was primarily Sampson, Conley, Cornelio, Luckham, and a grab bag of starts from a slew of others.
Rotation Observations: 18 guys got starts in AAA this year, 12 of which were actual AAA starters (3 were rehab starts, 3 more were “Openers” in bullpen games). Of those 12, I’d only categories a couple as even being competent in terms of performance: Alvarez and Ogasawara (not surprisingly, both ending the season in the majors). The rest were a slew of ERAs in the 5’s and 6s (if not higher). I’d be expecting a wholesale reshuffle of AAA next season. We’ll likely we’ll be seeing a big contingent of 40-man arms pushed down to AAA in 2026 combined with the typical Nats cattle call of veteran 30-something MLFAs like this year’s Pilkington, Sampson, and Conley.
Next guy to get Promoted: Nobody on this list pitched well enough in aggregate to push for even a shot at the 2026 MLB rotation via a ST invite, though (again, burying the lead on a future post) Cornelio likely is getting added to the 40-man to avoid Rule-5 and may be in MLB camp. But, his 8-game stint wasn’t fantastic to finish out 2025 and will start 2026 in AAA.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: I’m guessing 2025 MLFA Sampson and Conley’s time here is done. Solesky may be at MLFA as well, depending on the deal he signed before last season. Shuman turns 28 in December and was a 2019 draftee, which I believe means 6-years MLFA for him as well, so we should see lots of churn in this rotation next year.
Bullpen comments: There were a slew of Sept callups from the bullpen, but perhaps more notably is which 40-man arms the team left in AAA to finish out the season. Salazar (Waiver claim), Loutus (waiver claim), Brzycky (NDFA), and Lara (19IFA) all had relatively awful AAA numbers this season, and one has to think they’re amongst the first guys to get DFA’d when the team needs to find its first four slots for its 60-day DL guys in the off-season moves coming up (which happens right after the World Series concludes). Of the rest, only Davila had anywhere close to decent numbers.
But, this is more of an indication of just how much the AAA team has fed the MLB bullpen this year: 8 of the 9 guys in the MLB bullpen at year’s end was promoted up this season. So, bravo for the production.
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
- End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
- End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora at end of month.
- End of July 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Bennett, Huff/Schultz openers (with Sampson, Sykora, Lara each getting 1 start)
- End of Aug 2025: Bennett, Susana, Tolman, Kent, Clemmey
- End of Season 2025: Bennett, Tolman, Kent, Clemmey, Choi
Changes since end of last month: The only move of September was to put Susana on the DL with thankfully a non-arm injury, and replace him with Choi.
Rotation Observations: The performance of the guys in the Harrisburg rotation was awesome this year, with stellar season-long performances from Bennett, Cornelio, Susana, and Luckham for big chunks of the year. Clemmey and Kent’s promotions didn’t go very well for the last 5-6 turns of the season, but they both more than earned their spot and will be 1A and 1B in next year’s rotation. I would imagine that Susana misses the first part of the 2026 season with his Lat surgery and will get a month in AA once he’s going before heading to AAA next year where he belongs. Sykora and Stuart are both likely out for the entirety of 2026. Tolman (like Bennett) missed huge chunks of the last few years and had a rough debut in AA, but should be there to start 2026.
Next guy to get Promoted: Bennett likely has done “enough” to start next year in AAA; he turns 25 in December, lost all of 2024 and a huge chunk of 2025 to injury, barely pitched in 2023 as well, and its time for him to get a full season in.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Choi was demoted out of the rotation and only put back thanks to injuries, but his overall numbers really weren’t that bad on the season.
Bullpen comments: there’s definitely some promising arms in the AA bullpen; Schultz, Huff, Vasquez, and Amaral all were promoted up from High-A this season. Schultz and Huff made spot starts and threw a ton of multi-inning appearances.
High-A Wilmington
- Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
- End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
- End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
- End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
- End of July 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Tolman, Susana rehab starts plus Tejeda and Garcia late.
- End of Aug 2025: Sthele, Garcia, Meckley, Randall, Swan plus a slew of spot starts
- End of Season 2025: Sthele, Garcia, Meckley, Randall, Swan
Changes since end of last month: None; the last month was very stable.
Rotation Observations: Sthele was the only guy to go the whole season in the rotation: 7-7, 4.22 ERA, 1.11 whip, and a 82/24 K/BB in 138IP. Is that enough to get promoted? Probably not, but do you have him repeat High-A? Two of our three High-A starter acquisitions (Randall, Swan) finish off their seasons on our High-A team giving the Nats mediocre-to-bad stints. Garcia & Meckley were both Nats 2024 draftees; Garcia a bit more heralded (6th rounder $425k bonus) than Meckley (12th rounder, $150k bonus), but both finished off with middling High-A numbers after good (Garcia) to mediocre (Meckley) Low-A numbers.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sthele could get socially promoted; not sure what he’s got left to prove in High-A, even if he may not cut it in AA.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: None of these guys are getting sent back down; its either the rotation or the bullpen at this level
Bullpen comments: I have two main comments about the High-A bullpen: first, we know Wilmington is a pitcher’s park in a relative pitcher’s league, so there’s lots of guys in Wilmington with decent numbers (most of them already promoted to AA). Of those ending the year on the roster, Shout-out to Aldonis, Arguelles, and Glavine perhaps as having halfway decent seasons.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
- Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
- End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
- End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
- End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
- End of July 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson
- End of August 2025: Polanco, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson, Sales
- End of Season 2025: Polanco, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson, Sales
Changes since end of last month: None.
Rotation Observations: Polanco was the sole guy to make it the entire season in the Low-A rotation, turning 24 at season’s end. He was good but not great; 3.71 ERA, 1.25 whip, .225 BAA, but got passed over several times to get moved up. Romero came off the DL and then proceeded to walk more guys than he struck-out for the season; he turns 24 before next season and is at a cross-roads. Sullivan finished the season healthy and with a 3.23 ERA in 7 starts. Our 2024 draftee Johnson is a super interesting case, getting just $2k to sign out of UMBC and dominating (as he probably should have) in the FCL, but struggled in a month or so in the Low-A rotation to finish out the season. Lastly trade acquisition Sales finished off a great year in Low-A, pitching well for both his old and new teams.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sales by performance, Polanco and Johnson by age.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Romero probably has pitched himself into a corner.
Bullpen comments: By Season’s end, the “bullpen” in Fredericksburg was pretty bloated, with 12 bullpen arms to go with the 5 rotation guys. When FCL ended, the team called up a slew of guys from the affiliate team to go along with a handful of the 2025 draftees. None really got any semblances of useful stats.
FCL/Rookie
- Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
- End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
- End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
- End of Season/End of July 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: none; season ended in July.
Rotation Observations: The team moved up Johnson and Farias, left the other three guys in the FCL once the season ended, which is as good of an indication of what those guys did this year.
DSL/Rookie
- Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
- End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
- End of July 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela
- End of Season/End of Aug 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela with Gimenez
Changes since end of last month: none; Season ended in August.
Rotation Observations: Basically, there’s 3 good starter prospects here (Reyes, Carela, Gimenez) and three who’ll be back next year (De la Cruz, Robles, Torrellas). Reyes looked the most promising, but all three solid starters should come stateside for 2026. Depending on how many IFA arms we sign next January, Robles is probably the first to go.
That’s it for 2025 Rotation reviews.
Next up (and I was kind of writing it as I did this piece, which is why this one is so late) I’ll do a too-early glance at what the 2026 rotations might look like.