I just happened to have the MLB network on yesterday when shocking news broke: the Nats have fired both Manager Davey Martinez and long-time General Manager Mike Rizzo by way of a typical say-nothing milquetoast “ownership announcement” from the Lerner family citing the “need for a fresh approach.”
This is the same non-speak you hear when someone who’s been fired from their job says they “need to spend more time with their family.”
The main reason the timing was their contract options; both had 2026 options due this month. If the team wanted to go in a different direction, they had to be picked up by month’s end. Perhaps the simplest answer is this: Lerner’s already knew they wanted to go in a different direction this coming off-season and decided to cut bait now instead of on July 31st and have themselves two lame duck executives for the rest of the season. However, there’s a lot more to it, at least for Rizzo’s firing.
The timing of canning Rizzo is somewhat ridiculous. The team is in the middle of draft prep, a draft where they hold the #1 overall pick and have $16.5M to dole out. Not only that, but right after the draft, its trade season, where the GM has to wheel and deal to find the best moves for a failing team. Firing Rizzo this week is a complete indictment of the ownership group’s decision making, who, if they really truly believe Mike Rizzo is the reason this team is in last place and not themselves for holding back payroll, then they’re even more delusional than we thought. I can only think there’s more to this story w/r/t canning Rizzo today. GMs generally have a massive say in the top 2-3 picks of each draft, since they’re the most money and the highest-leverage negotiations, but then the Scouting Director mostly dictates the rest of the picks. So, whacking the GM now is still “bad,” but not quite as bad for the rest of the draft.
The larger issue considering Rizzo’s tenure here is a lot more understandable. We’ve discussed the relative failure of the Rizzo regime w/r/t both player development and drafting more and more lately. Rizzo has pretty much failed at picking an impact player in the 1st or 2nd round for a decade straight at this point, and the system’s overall failure to develop impact players has extended that entire time. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal crushed Rizzo and the team in late May for this same point: quoting that article, “… since 2013, the Nationals have drafted and developed only three players with career bWARs above 5.0. Those three — Nick Pivetta, Erick Fedde, Jesús Luzardo — made their marks with other teams.” That’s so bad as to be laughable. We’ve lived through years of failed 1st rounders and an even worse track record on 2nd rounders. Seth Romero may have been the nadir of Rizzo’s draft strategy, picking a known headcase AND paying him an above slot bonus was a move that the entire baseball industry predicted ahead of time how it would work out, correctly.
It’s fair to criticize Rizzo and his staff for this. But that’s not the entire reason the team is in last place, again. They’re spending a fraction of what it takes to compete in the NL east in 2025. If the Lerner’s actually, truly believe a $113M payroll should be in playoff contention this year, then they’re even more delusional than we thought.
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For Martinez, the writing may have been on the wall for a few weeks now after his ill-thought press conference throwing his players under the bus for performance. MLB Managers don’t have long careers anymore primarily for one reason: MLB players who earn multiple times the salary of the manager can only take so much “leadership” before they tune him out. Martinez is known as a “player’s manager,” meaning he takes a softer approach, an approach where he relies on his prior on-field experiences to say to players, “dude I used to play too, listen to my advice.” Player managers are the best … until they’re not. Then suddenly a losing team takes advantage, doesn’t heed advice, and suddenly you need to swing the pendulum far to the other side of Manager types and get yourself a “Task master.” If you look back at the recent history of our managers you can kind of see this swinging back and forth:
- Martinez: Player manager
- preceded by Dusty Baker, also a player manager but an old school cross over one
- preceded by Matt Williams, a task master
- preceded by Davey Johnson, definitely a player’s manager
- preceded by Jim Riggleman, a task master
- preceded by Manny Acta, a player’s manager
- preceded by Frank Robinson, absolutely an old school task master
- preceded by Felipe Alou, absolutely a player’s manager.
Anyway, you get the point. Prepare for this team to install some old-school A-hole who whips the team into shape.
Unfortunately, the Nats made the wrong kind of news over the weekend, looking again like the inept, bumbling organization they have been long-considered in baseball circles. Let’s hope it doesn’t result in some ridiculous decision making at the 2025 draft.