We’re now three months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month. We’re starting to really see some trends that we can actually believe … even though many adhere to the “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” camp.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
All stats are as of 6/30/25.
Important links for this analysis:
- Big Board
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats
We’ll start with the Majors.
- Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
- End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
- End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
- End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
Changes since end of last Month: none: we’re at our opening day rotation for the entire month and have shown pretty remarkable consistency in the rotation so far this year for a last place team.
Rotation Observations: We started June with a 28-31 record, and we’re ending June with a 35-49 record. That’s not great, Bob. The team went just 7-19 after a 15-12 May that had fans maybe, possibly thinking we’ve turned the corner. The pitching staff didn’t help. Gore continues to pitch like an Ace and may be pushing towards an All Star appearance. Soroka’s return from the DL resulted in a very solid 3.50 ERA month as he builds trade-value. Irvin’s June was forgettable: 7.00 ERA and 1.65 whip in five starts. Amazingly he won one of them. Parker improved from last month but is still pitching like a 4-A starter in general. And then there’s Williams, who at least has been consistent: here’s his month to month ERAs: 5.70 in April, 5.68 in May, and 5.55 in June. With little run support he’s now turning into an automatic out every fifth turn, and is making his off-season contract extension looking worse by the week.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Williams … though there’s not exactly a clamoring for a rotation spot coming up from AAA right now, so everyone’s safe.
Bullpen comments: With a 7-19 month we’re now entrenched in last place and may soon pivot to the “who can we trade” analysis. Finnegan remains one of our leading trade pieces (as he was last year before one bad game scuttled his trade value). Lord and Henry should be untouchable based on player control and performance. New acquisition Chafin has been solid but is hurt. The rest of the pen is a mess of 6-ERA rookies and veterans that aren’t helping this team hold on to leads. Unfortunately there’s not a ton of help coming from AAA since we’ve already done a purge.
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
- End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
- End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
Changes since end of last month: None until the last day of the month, when Sampson hit the DL and will be replaced by Ogasawara for July, which I’m totally OK with since Ogasawara is on the 40-man and presumably could provide future help, whereas Sampson is a 30-something MLFA innings eater.
Rotation Observations: Cavalli was officially taken off the MLB DL and optioned to AAA, and in five June starts he posted a middling 5.64 ERA/1.52 whip effort. 18/12 KBB in 22 innings. That’s not enough Ks and too many BBs to make a push upwards. In the comments a few weeks ago there was a discussion on how long Cavalli would have to be “kept down” in order to get an other year of service time … well there’s certainly no urgency right now, and concerns are starting to creep into play here for sure. As for the rest of the rotation: Alvarez and Solesky put up nice months but both seem to have the same problem: they’re good enough to get by in AAA but seemingly not pushing for a promotion. As for the rest: 33yr old MLFA Sampson was ok in a few starts (but doesn’t have any swing and miss) but hit the DL recently. Lastly Seth Shuman basically pitched BP all month with an 8+ ERA and giving up 10 homers in 5 games.
Next guy to get Promoted: none. If I had to promote someone to make a spot start in the MLB it probably would be Pilkington.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Shuman. He may have reached the end of the line. He’ll be a 6yr MLFA and has been in our system since 2019 and I just don’t know what else they can do here. There’s several AA arms who really should be in AAA and it seems like its just a matter of time before Shuman gets the axe.
Bullpen comments: Pilkington’s proven to be a multi-use guy and had a sub 1.00 ERA in June. Also, dare I say it but former 40-man hurler Joan Adon had 22 Ks in just 13IP in June in a middle relief role; do we roll the dice with him again in the majors? Marquis Grissom Jr. has settled down since his promotion and may be putting his name into consideration soon. Long-time farmhand Peterson got cut soon after his promotion to AAA: his AAA stat-line: 3 games, 1 total Inning pitched: 13 hits and 14 runs allowed. Phew. Weigel wasn’t much better, giving up 18 runs in 7 June innings; kind of curious why he’s still around.
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
- End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
- End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
Changes since end of last month: Saenz demoted to the bullpen officially, replaced with Stuart. Then at month’s end the AA rotation has two new names who have to fit in somehow in Lara and Sykora.
Rotation Observations: Not one peep about Susana’s UCL issue; hit the DL 5/10/25, now we’re at 6/30. Here’s how I expect this to go: Susana “rehabs” for months in Florida, gets a start at the end of the season, lasts 2 innings, leave the game with diminished velocity, and the team announces TJ surgery the next day. Seen it a thousand times.
Lara finished rehab and was demoted to AA, but his first start back was awful. Then, top prospect Sykora was promoted to make his first start at month’s end, which looked bad on paper but which seemed to be more like death from a thousand paper cuts. Heading into July we seem to have 7 names for 5 spots but no real obvious choices as to who makes way. Luckham had a middling month but has proven he’s solved AA at various points. Conley had a very solid month in the rotation … and is a 30yr old in AA for the 4th season. Not sure what we’re proving here. The best arm this month was Cornelio, with a 1.96 ERA and a sub 1.00 whip, but he hasn’t appeared in nearly two weeks for some reason.
Next guy to get Promoted: I’d promote Conley ASAP to see if he can hang in AAA; if he can great, if he can’t then he’ll have proven that fact three years running and I’d cut ties. Luckham has nothing else to prove in AA and needs to get moved up at this point. After that, if Cornelio puts up another month like this i’d move him up too: at 25 no better time than the present.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: They already moved Saenz out of the rotation. What is Choi giving us right now? Minor league Rule5 guy with a 5+ ERA repeating AA? In a pinch I’d dump him.
Bullpen comments: Davila and Acosta both had solid months: Acosta should since he was in AAA to start. The AA bullpen now has 5 guys promoted just this season, so they need a bit of time to settle. Mejia’s conversion to relief isn’t going well, with more BB than K. Junior Santos has been unstoppable as the closer and as a 23yr old MLFA might be worthy of moving up soon.
High-A Wilmington
- Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
- End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
- End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
- End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
Changes since end of last month: Sykora (finally) promoted to where he probably should have been a month ago. In four High-A starts Sykora had a 1.66 ERA, a 0.74 whip and 32/6 K/BB in 21ip.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey continues to be solid: 1.45 ERA for the month. Bennett is being eased back into things and hasn’t given up a run in 3 small starts. Sunday Sthele is Steady Eddy; 3.60 ERA in four starts, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. Kent took a big step back this month, with four starts in the 6 ERA range. I can’t ding him too much, since he’s starting in the High-A rotation as a 22yr old pro. Tolman got one spot start and added that to a nice month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Bennett; once he’s stretched out he just has to go to AA. At 24 he’s lost so much time already. After that, Clemmey is making a big case to move up as well despite his age.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody deserving right now; Sthele is the least performant but he’s got solid 5th starter numbers for now.
Bullpen comments; Miguel Gomez has gone from LR/SS to closer and has been very solid. He was demoted down earlier this year and might warrant a return. 2023 NDFA Arguelles didn’t give up a run this month. As mentioned, I like what Tolman is doing and wouldn’t mind seeing him back in the rotation.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
- Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
- End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
- End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
- End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
Changes since end of last month: Brayan Romero off the D/L and into what basically is now being treated like a 6-man rotation. The other 5 guys have been intact since opening day.
Rotation Observations: Garcia & Meckley, both 2024 draft picks, were excellent in June, though the team seemed to “manage” Garcia’s workload a bit with only 3 starts. Fellow 2024 draftee Tejeda was also very solid, with a 3.68 ERA and a 20/2 K/BB ratio. Neither Roman or Romero were particularly impressive this month, both with bad peripherals and poor K/9 rates. Polanco, the elder statesman of the bunch at 23, took a step back this month but has been decent all month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco as the oldest guy, needs the challenge of the next level. I’d keep the rest of these 21yr olds in place for now.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month. Romero didn’t light things on fire either but it was his first month back.
Bullpen comments: I like what we’re seeing from 2024 11th rounder Beeker; spot start, solid numbers. He’s already 23 so he should get moved up honestly. Cranz was 7 for 7 in save situations and needs to be promoted at this point.
FCL/Rookie
- Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
- End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
- End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
Changes since end of last month: Johnson was promoted, had a solid low-A start, then demoted and had 4 relief appearances. Odd usage. Liam Sullivan, who started last year promising before a season-ending injury, did a month’s worth of rehab starts here and may get pushed to Low-A officially soon.
Rotation Observations: Feliz looks solid; 13/1 K/BB, 1.96 ERA. He’s only 19 though, so no rush. Liam Sullivan had a 0.90 ERA; he needs to go up.
So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run. Portorreal: what are we doing here? 8+ ERA, 23 hits in 13 innings, just 6 walks. Not good. Lunar is showing some promise, Faries not so much.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. Same as last month, turns 23 this month, averaging nearly a walk an inning. Portorreal isn’t impressing anyone either.
Bullpen comments: Not sure why 23yr olds Johnson or Kane are still in FCL. The rest of the relievers here are a hodgepodge of IFAs with just a few innings not worth analyzing.
DSL/Rookie
- Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
- End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
Changes since end of last month: Mejia and his 10.61 ERA replaced by Torrelles and his 1.29 ERA
Rotation Observations: First month through and DSL’s rotation looks promising. We have three guys putting up solid numbers in Reyes, De la Cruz, and Torrellas. Robles has a .179 BAA but those hits keep turning into runs, inflating his ERA. Only Mejia (already in the pen) and Carrasco (a .400 BAA and a 9.69 ERA so far) have really struggled.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Carrasco
Bullpen comments: There’s a couple arms worth moving to the FCL, including a 20yr old 25IFA in Juan Lopez who has 23 Ks in 13ip and needs another challenge.
That’s it for June 2025.