With a plethora of options, Spring Training will be pivotal in sorting out the starting rotation
The Nationals suddenly have a lot of starting pitching depth. After years of barely being able to field five starters, the Nationals now have difficult decisions to make in Spring Training. There are seven guys battling for five spots, unless the Nats go to a six man rotation.
According to reports, Mackenzie Gore, Michael Soroka, and Jake Irvin are likely to be in the rotation. That leaves two spots for Trevor Williams, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, and Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Given his performance last season, and his big (by 2025 Nationals standards) contract, you have to think that Williams is likely to be in the rotation as well.
In my opinion, DJ Herz should get the final spot. His upside is much higher than Parker or Ogasawara. Herz has shown flashes of being a high end arm, with his ability to generate strikeouts and weak contact. His underlying numbers are also much stronger than Parker’s. However, there is a scenario where the Nats decide that Herz’s stuff could play up in a bullpen role.
Ogasawara is the wild card in all of this. Spring Training will be a massive test for the Japanese left hander. There is still some uncertainty about how his stuff will play in North America. He is a soft tosser who doesn’t overpower anyone, so it is possible the step up is too much for him. The Nationals are only paying Ogasawara $3.5 million over two years, so a big league spot is not guaranteed for him.
Herz, Ogasawara, and Parker are going to be in an ultra competitive battle in the spring. One is going to be in the rotation, one is going to be the long man in bullpen, and the other is going to start the season in Triple-A. It is a high stakes battle where anything can happen.
A lot of Spring Training competitions are just competitions in name only, where the team wants a certain outcome. This battle is going to be a true best man wins competition. It should bring out the best in all of the starters, pushing them to improve. It is exciting that the Nats have enough depth to have a real camp battle, where everyone involved has a legitimate case to be a big leaguer.
This rotation logjam shows that the health of the organization. It also shows that the Nationals pitching development has come a long way. They have had struggles churning out homegrown pitching for a long time. However, there are now many young pitchers knocking on the door of the MLB.