The Washington Nationals hit a home run with the Juan Soto trade, but Mike Rizzo needs to capitalize

The Juan Soto trade return gave the Nationals a young core, but can they build a winner around them before it is too late

On August 2nd, 2022, the Washington Nationals future changed forever. The Nationals sent Josh Bell and more importantly superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the Padres for a six player haul. That haul consisted of CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Jarlin Susana, Robert Hassell III, and Luke Voit. It was truly a Hershel Walker type package, and provided the Nationals with building blocks for the future.

However, the reason that Hershel Walker trade is so famous is because it helped the Dallas Cowboys build a dynasty. For the Soto trade to have that kind of legacy, the Washington Nationals need to win with these guys.

Can Ownership and Rizzo Get the Job Done?

It is up to ownership, as well as the architect of that trade, Mike Rizzo to build a winner and surround these young stars with more talent. There are some real questions about whether these people are up to the job.

Yes, the Lerner’s and Rizzo built a consistent winner in the 2010’s. However, there is a feeling among fans and around the industry that the pairing has gotten stale. Ken Rosenthal put out a scathing piece calling the Nationals a bottom feeder.

Was Rosenthal harsh in his assessment? Yes, I think the Nationals have a brighter future than the likes of the Rockies and Pirates. However, he makes some valid points in the piece. For one, the drafting and developing has not been good enough. Since 2013, the Nats have only drafted and developed three players with a bWAR over 5. Those three, Nick Pivetta, Erick Fedde and Jesus Luzardo all flourished on other teams, not the Nationals.

There are promising recent draft picks. Jake Irvin should surpass that five WAR mark pretty soon, and guys like Dylan Crews, Travis Sykora and Brady House have all shown a lot of promise. However, the trend is still alarming. There have also been misses in recent years, most notably with 2022 fifth overall pick Elijah Green.

If you struggle with development, one way to make up for that is with spending. However, since the pandemic, the Lerner’s have been operating the club like they are a small market team. Since the 2020-21 offseason, the Nationals have not handed out a contract over $15 million.

That is a serious issue, especially with Mike Rizzo running the show. Rizzo has proven he can build a winner if he has license to spend and go after big trade targets. He has done it before, and if the Soto trade proves anything, he still has an eye for a good deal.

However, if the Lerner’s are going to operate on a shoestring budget, I do not think Rizzo is the right guy to do that with. If you want to build on the cheap, you should do it with a young, analytical mind from a progressive organization like the Rays or Brewers. However, ownership should not be acting in that manner. The Lerner’s have shown they can spend and need to do it again.

The Soto Trade Core Deserves to Win:

It is important to point out just how special the haul from the Soto trade was. They got three building blocks, as well as two more promising young talents. You should be able to build a winner around these guys, especially with all the high draft picks the Nationals have had in recent years.

Let’s talk about the big three. James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore are all having All-Star caliber seasons in their early to mid 20’s. Gore leads all of baseball in strikeouts with 93 in 62.1 innings. He has ace level upside, and is getting closer and closer to reaching it every year. Each season Gore gets a bit better. A lot of times pitchers peak in their late 20’s or early 30’s, sometimes even in their mid 30’s. Gore can definitely be one of those guys.

However, the clock is starting to tick. Gore has two years of control after this one, hitting free agency after the 2027 season. This has to create some urgency for the Nationals. They can’t afford to have Gore hit free agency without reaching the playoffs and going on some sort of run.

CJ Abrams is a similar story. Like Gore, he has shown steady improvement. He made the All-Star game last year, but his season went off the rails after that. However, he has bounced back nicely, hitting .294 with an .884 OPS. Even if he is streaky at times, Abrams is proving himself to be one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball.

Like Gore, free agency looms on the horizon. He has three years of team control after this, one more year than Gore. Unlike Gore and James Wood, Abrams is not a Boras client, so an extension is more likely. Extending Abrams would be a message from ownership that they are serious about building something. They have not sent that message yet.

The last member of the big three is the crown jewel of the package, James Wood. Free agency is still a long ways out for the 22 year old, so the Nats don’t have to worry about that just yet. However, he is the biggest piece of the package both figuratively and literally.

Standing at 6’7, Wood is a fearsome bat that will be in the middle of the Nationals lineup for years to come. Wood is hitting .284 with 13 home runs and a .920 OPS. Despite his tender years, he is one of the best left handed hitters in the business. James Wood is going to be the face of the Nationals for years to come. It is the teams responsibility to Wood and the fans to build a winner around their star slugger.

While the last two pieces of the trade aren’t as established, they both have talent. Robert Hassell III made his MLB debut recently. He is an athletic outfielder who was known for his pure hitting ability, but has seen some ups and downs the last couple years. Hassell should be at the very least an exciting fourth outfielder.

The last piece of the trade is the youngest guy, Jarlin Susana. Susana is injured at the moment, but he has one of the most electric arms in the Minor Leagues at just 21 and is a top 100 prospect. His fastball sits at around 100 MPH and he has a wipeout slider to go with it. He still needs to iron out his command, but he has the arm to be a dynamic reliever if starting doesn’t work out.

Time to Win With This Generational Haul:

Mike Rizzo truly got a generational trade haul back for Juan Soto. It was one of the great moves in recent memory. However, for this to be a truly all-time great trade, the Nationals need to win with these guys. Winning trades is great, but winning games is a whole lot better.

Mike Rizzo and Mark Lerner need to prove that they have a working plan. They need to prove to Ken Rosenthal and others that they are not a bottom feeder. In the 2020’s, the Nationals have unquestionably been a bottom feeder. You just have to look at their record.

However, the promise has always been that the losing is a means to an end. The Nationals are building towards something that will make all of this worth it. With the Nationals winning a World Series in 2019, most fans were willing to give leadership grace. After all, these guys have won before, so surely they can do it again.

However, as 2019 gets further in the rear view mirror, it is time for the winning to come soon. For me, this is the last season where a record below .500 is remotely acceptable. At a certain point, a rebuild is not a rebuild if you are not building towards anything. We are not at that point yet, but we are inching closer and closer.

Progress has been frustratingly slow and we are seeing an over-reliance on the Soto core. Right now, those guys are all we have with a couple exceptions. We saw a great MacKenzie Gore start get wasted on Friday. Then on Sunday, we saw CJ Abrams and James Wood start a rally before being let down by the likes of Josh Bell and Nathaniel Lowe.

That has been the story of the season. The Soto core has provided magic and gotten the Nationals very close to getting over the top. However, the rest of the roster has let them down. This is a shame because the Soto guys are ready to compete, but the rest of the roster is not.

That falls on ownership and Mike Rizzo. Ownership could have gone out and made a splash this offseason. They could have brought in a veteran leader like they did with Jayson Werth all those years ago. However, they did not do that, rather they stuck to the bargain bin shopping aisle they have been living in the last few years.

While Rizzo did not get enough to work with, he did not get enough bang for his buck either. The Josh Bell and Trevor Williams pickups have been failures, and he built a bullpen so bad, he had to rebuild it in early May.

Both Lerner and Rizzo need to step up their game. With the Soto core, they have the building blocks to create a winner, but can they do it in 2025? There are a lot of questions, and if they can’t, both need to go.

The Washington Nationals made the modern day Hershel Walker trade, but if they don’t get serious, it could all go to waste. There is still time, but questions are emerging. If the Soto trade does not build a winner, was it really all worth it?