Nathaniel Lowe started out strong for the Nationals but he has fallen off lately and the Nats need him to heat up
The Nationals biggest move this offseason was trading for Nathaniel Lowe. He was brought in to provide stability to the first base position. Over the past few years, the Nats have struggled to find impact players at that spot. Josh Bell was a solid pickup the first time around, but it has been ugly since then outside of a magical Joey Meneses run.
Lowe was brought in to fix that. He was supposed to be the next Josh Bell or Adam LaRoche, stabilizing the position for the next couple of years. However, after a hot start, Lowe has been lackluster to say the least.
According to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, Lowe has been below replacement level. In his Rangers tenure, Lowe had a .791 OPS across four seasons, and was steady as they come. However, this year that mark is down to .681.
Lowe was great early on. In his 16 at bats in March, he put up a 1.225 OPS with two home runs. In April, he was streaky, but had his moments. Lowe put up a .714 OPS with 4 homers and an impressive 19 RBI’s.
However, things have gone off the rails in May. Lowe is hitting .193 with a 545 OPS. That is simply not good enough for a middle of the lineup bat who was expected to stabilize the first base position. Lowe has a lower OPS than Josh Bell in the month of May, who has taken a lot of heat.
But what happened, why is Lowe so ineffective? One potential answer could be selling out for power. Both Lowe and Bell prioritized hitting for power in the offseason. That sounds great on paper, but it comes at a cost. Lowe’s K% and whiff percentage are both up about five percent this season. His 27.5 K% is the highest it has been since 2020. Lowe’s BB% has also fallen from 12.6% last year to just 8.6%
These are all signs of a hitter trying to sell out for power. It is very clear to see that this is just not his game. That 27 home run 2022 season seems like more of an outlier and not something to chase. While he is on pace to well exceed his home run totals from the last couple of years, it has come at a cost.
It is worth noting that Lowe has been bad in May his whole career. His .650 OPS in May is over 100 points lower than any other month. However, I think there is more to it than just that. Right now, we are seeing a player chasing power too much. We are seeing him try to launch pitches that he could just spray. That is why we are seeing him whiff at so many high fastballs. Lowe is simply trying to do too much.
In the beginning of the season, this approach was paying off. We wrote about how he had changed and was tapping into more power. However, pitchers have adjusted to his new approach, and now he has to adjust back. Lowe could use a day off to fine tune his swing and approach.
The Nationals need Nathaniel Lowe if they want their offense to be sustainable. Right now, the offense is over-reliant on Wood and Abrams. Lowe was supposed to be that third guy, but he has not provided that kind of production. He has a negative WAR and a wRC+ of 90, or 10% worse than league average. That is not what the Nationals signed up for.
To make matters worse, Robert Garcia, the reliever the Nationals gave up in the trade is thriving. In 26 outings, Garcia has a 2.45 ERA with 2 saves and 10 holds. That kind of reliable, high leverage arm would be nice in the Nationals bullpen. Garcia also is not a free agent until 2030, while Lowe hits the open market after next season.
If Lowe can get back to being an above average first baseman, this trade will be fine for the Nats, and maybe even a win. After all, an above average everyday player is more valuable than a middle reliever. However, Lowe is playing like a below average player at the moment, and that needs to change.
The Washington Nationals brought in Nathaniel Lowe to be a stabilizing presence and a key cog behind James Wood and CJ Abrams. So far, he has not been up to the task. It is still early, but Lowe needs to prove that this May slump was a mirage, and he needs to prove it fast.