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Twelve Week Check-in with 1-1 Candidates for 2025 Draft

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Could Eli Willits really go top? Photo via USA Baseball

Here’s our sixth check-in on the 1-1 candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes that have published since our last posting (Note: since i’m doing these every 2-week posts and linking to mocks as they happen, i’m going to abandon my typical annual “Mock draft collection” post. Or maybe i’ll throw it up right before the draft).

  • ProspectsLive posted its updated 250 Draft Prospects on 4/21/25. Top 5 go Arnold, Hernandez, Carlson, Holliday, LaViolette. All the rest of the top 10 are in our link block, so no surprises. I think they have Carlson too high, but can’t quibble otherwise. Detailed scouting reports on each player are here as well, and i’ve updated the link blocks below with direct links and updated ranks.
  • Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo wrote an interesting piece titled the “8 MLB Draft prospects who could go 1-1,” illustrating just how wide open this is, which of course supports why we’re keeping tabs on so many players. His analysis mirrors the list of players i’m tracking, and anyone not in his top 8 I’m dropping off the check in list.
  • Baseball America did a podcast on 4/25/25 ahead of the release of its second staff mock draft. Last time their staff member chose Hernandez 1-1; this time a BA writer took Willits, saying it came down to Willits or Arquette for him.
  • Two of the guys we’re covering here (Doyle and Anderson) faced off as Tennessee visited LSU on 4/25/25 in a battle of top 10 teams (LSU is ranked #6, Tennessee #7 by d1baseball as of gametime). I’ll discuss more about their outings below. However the game itself was pretty amazing: LSU went into the bottom of the ninth down 3-0 and scored 6 runs to win it, including a 450+ dead-center 3-run walk off homer from their best hitter Jared Jones.
  • MLPPipeline finally released an updated to its top 150 Draft board; it was pretty dated with ranks that were done in December, and we saw some significant movement. I have updated the below ranks for the updated data and wrote separately about the update and the accompanying podcast, which had several very interesting nuggets of info. I’m also going to seriously cull the below list of actively tracked players because of it.
  • ProspectsLive released its Mock Draft v2.0 on 4/30/25. They went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Arquette, Willits. I can’t argue with this from a draft ranks order, but the match with the teams to their proclivities in the draft doesn’t add up; more on that at the bottom.
  • BA posted their updated top 400 on 4/30/25. There’s a slight bit of movement in the top 10 but they still have top 3 as Arnold, Holliday, and Hernandez. I’ve updated the ranks in the player snippets below but eliminated the link since its all in one place now.
  • BleacherReport’s Joel Reuter’s 4/25/25 Mock draft has the Nats going conservative. top 5 in the mock: Arnold, Arquette, Hernandez, Holliday, Houston.
  • Kiley McDaniel posted his scouting reports on the top draft candidates all in one place on 4/24/25. He also posted video snippets of the top players on his twitter feed. I’ll add his commentary to the prep players below.
  • Just as i published this on 5/5/25, MLBPipeline guys published an “Odds to go 1-1” post. Holliday, Hernandez, and Arnold. It’s basically a transcript of their podcast last week that I quoted elsewhere.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why. We’ve removed a ton of names that have been in discussion this spring.

  • Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#38), BA (#25) His star has dropped since mid 2024, now projecting as a mid-1st rounder.
  • Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#16), BA (#18)He started very hot for Tennessee but is an end-of-the-1st rounder, 5’11” 2B guy. He also pulled a hamstring and hasn’t played for weeks, torpedoing his 1-1 chances.
  • Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana. Indiana stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#23), BA (#38). solid offensively but fringy defensively, so moving him down. #6 on ProspectsLive, so still some hope there.
  • Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona. UofA stats and box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#22), BA (#24); he was top 10 fringe and started hot, but broke his hand in mid March and will miss a chunk of the season, crushing his chances of going higher. Was top 10, now in the 20s.
  • Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & boxes, MLBPipeline rpt (#17), BA (#13). He just has not impressed against sub-standard competition like he should have, and is no longer on anyone’s radar for the top of the draft. #8 on Prospectslive. Dropped all the way to #17 by MLB; was in their top 5 to start season.
  • Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLB (#6), BA (#9), ProspectsLive (#10). He’s a seriously good prospect of course, but there’s 3 prep guys clearly ahead of him, so dropping him out of analysis.
  • Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#10), BA (#11), PL (#10+). Despite a massive jump on MLB’s list (from #75 to #10), I don’t see him as a realistic candidate for 1-1 anymore. If the team wants a college LHP starter … they’re taking Arnold.
  • Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#12), PL (#10+). Jumped from #44 to #9 on MLB’s latest draft, but despite excellent showing in 2025 he’s #3 out of #3 college LHP starters, and the Nats aren’t going to pass on Arnold or Doyle for him, so i’m going to stop hyper-tracking.
  • Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest. WFU Stats & box scores, MLB (#12), BA (#7), PL (#10+). Jumped up a bit in the latest MLB ranks, but if the Nats are going to take a college SS … they’re taking Arquette at this point.
  • Billy Carlson, SS/RHP Corona HS (CA). MLB (#6), BA (#8), PL (#3). Despite increasing his profile all year (in part due to the fact that he plays on the same HS team as Hernandez), Carlson is like the 3rd best prep SS out of three, and for similar logic to Doyle/Anderson … if the Nats want a prep SS with a slick glove, they’ll be picking Willits.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette‘s TAMU team had two tough series, at #1 Texas and hosting #2 LSU. He got just one hit in each weekend series. His slash line took a dive as a result and has gone down to .276/.437/.593 (two weeks ago it was .307/.468/.693). He’s running out of time to impress the decision makers, and more and more is looking like a down-ballot draftee.
  • Arnold had two great starts over the past two weeks against top competition. He went into #17 Louisville and went 7 2/3 11/1 K/BB, gave up 2 runs. Then with FSU hosting Clemson last weekend in a battle of top 5 teams, he limited Clemson to 1 run in 6 ip despite being rather wild on the night (3 walks and 3 HBP). No word on whether Nats brass was at this start, but it would have made sense to get another look against decent competition. He continues to keep himself in the 1-1 discussion.
  • Arquette got “the visit” from Nats brass for their 11th weekend visit. Here’s the problem with Arquette succinctly stated: if you want a big power hitting SS who won’t stay on the position and has to move to 3B, then Holliday is a younger, better, more upside version. So, to me that always means Arquette is going to be “behind” Holliday if this is the stature of player the Nats are looking at. In the meantime, his slash line has cooled a bit in the last two weeks, down to .351/.472/.701 from .383/.497/.780 as OSU visited Oregon two weekends ago in a battle of two top 10 teams.
  • Doyle was absolutely amazing in a high-profile showdown at LSU on 4/25/25, going 6 2/3rds and giving up just one hit to #6 LSU in their bandbox of a stadium. 6/3 K/BB so not nearly as many Ks as normal, but he made himself some money today. Is there a world where Doyle is picked above Arnold? Maybe, but it is fading fast. Last weekend weather issues caused him to pitch twice in two innings against Arnold, something scouts and MLB execs probably cringed at.
  • Anderson looked nearly as good as his counterpart Doyle on 4/25/25: 7ip, 2runs, 11Ks. Both guys took no decisions. But, as per above, neither Doyle and Anderson are getting picked over Arnold at this point, so we’ll focus on the top guys from here on out.

Prep kids: I’ll paraphrase McDaniel’s scouting report for the prep kids, in lieu of any actual news.

  • Holliday: Word on the street is that Holliday had a hitch in his swing last year that he’s fixed, but that he’ll project as a strikeout happy, 65-grade power hitter as a pro. He’s described as an above average defender with a plus arm, and should be a top-level 3B prospect. McDaniel isn’t sold on him as 1-1.
  • Hernandez; sits mid-upper 90s, hits 100+. Plus-Plus changeup. has worked on his curve and its now above average; slider is his 4th pitch and needs work. The knock on him is that his FB is straight and will become more hittable if he loses velocity. 2nd-round talent as a 3B hitter too.
  • Carlson: turns 19 a few weeks after draft, a negative for many teams. 80-grade arm at short. has a huge swing right now, will need some fixing as a pro, but here you’re drafting for the floor of a solid pro SS with all the defensive tools.
  • Willits: hit over power, plus speed, plus defender, true SS. Solid contact, switch hitter who’s better from the left hand side. All plus tools. Super young, reclassified from 2026 class. Again mentions that many teams really over-value the age at draft.

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are seriously looking at Willits for 1-1. However, they also can dream on Holliday and Hernandez. In a draft where the college guys aren’t blowing your socks off, you roll the dice on upside.

The next four teams picking are the Angels, Seattle, Colorado, and St Louis. Just off the top of my head, i these teams seem to have a drafting history like this:

  • Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm; aka Jamie Arnold.
  • Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats no prep arms. I’ll bet they take either Willits or Holliday if they’re there, but may not be able to pass on Hernandez.
  • Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last 6 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there.
  • St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; i’ll bet they are dreaming on LaViolette.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, LaViolette.