As the deadline approaches, the Nationals have a fascinating decision to make with Michael Soroka
With the Nationals sitting in last place and trade deadline approaching, the team will be sellers once again. Rentals such as Kyle Finnegan and Amed Rosario are likely to be on the move. However, the Nationals have one other rental with value who is a more unique case. That is right hander Michael Soroka.
Soroka is not like most rentals. For one thing, he is just 27 years old, at least until August. He is actually younger than Jake Irvin, who is seen as a future piece of the Nats rotation. Despite being younger than Irvin, Soroka made his MLB debut before Irvin even got drafted.
The Soroka Story:
In the time since he made that debut back in 2018, Soroka has had a wild ride. He has seen more highs and lows than most players will in their entire career, yet he is just 27. In 2019, Soroka looked like the Braves ace of the future and present. He had a 2.68 ERA in 174.2 innings. Soroka was second in Rookie of the Year and sixth in Cy Young voting. He was actually right behind Stephen Strasburg in the Cy Young ballot.
However, disaster would strike the next couple years. On August 30th 2020, in front of no fans, Soroka tore his achilles while trying to cover first base. It was a devastating blow for the young right hander.
However, things would only get worse for the young man. Just about a year after the first tear when Soroka was closing in on his return, he tore his achilles again. He was just walking into the Truist Park clubhouse like he had hundreds of times before and it just snapped.
Soroka was done until 2023. He came back, much to the delight of Braves fans who supported him every step of the way. However, as you would expect, he was not the same in 2023, putting up an ERA over 6 in his 7 outings. With the Braves competing, they decided to ship Soroka off to the rebuilding White Sox so he could get a fresh start.
Intriguing Arm:
In Chicago, Soroka did not have great stats but did some interesting things. He went 0-10 with a 4.74 ERA, but showed some glimpses of his old glory. After struggling in the rotation, Soroka moved to the White Sox bullpen. In a bullpen role, throwing a new pitch mix, Soroka looked dominant at times. He struck out 60 batters in his 36 innings out of the ‘pen.
However, when he hit free agency, Soroka wanted a chance to start. He thought his success had more to do with a tweak in his arsenal rather than the bullpen role. A sinker baller for most of his career, Soroka was more four-seam heavy out of the ‘pen. The Nationals gave him that chance to start, giving him a 1-year $9 million deal.
Nationals Tenure:
In his Nationals tenure, Soroka has remained interesting without completely putting it together. Unfortunately, Soroka got hurt in his first start, which caused him to miss all of April.
Since then, he has been up and down. On the season, Soroka has a 4.70 ERA and 4.33 FIP, nothing too inspiring. However, if you go a little bit deeper under the hood, you will see some extremely promising signs.
His statcast data is excellent. Soroka has a sparkling 3.04 xERA. His strikeout percentage of 26.3% is in the 75th percentile and his 6.2% walk rate is in the 78th percentile. That combination of striking guys out and not walking people is extremely interesting. He is also above average when it comes to ground ball rate and barrel percentage.
The pitch mix also shows a lot of promise. His fastball velocity is up over a tick this season, going from 93 MPH to 94.2 MPH. There have been times where he has caught too much of the plate with his heater, which is why he has allowed 8 home runs on his four-seamer. However, it is getting a lot of whiffs for a fastball and is effective when it is located.
Soroka’s slurve has been a deadly pitch for him. Opponents are hitting just .122 against the breaking ball despite Soroka throwing it nearly 35% of the time. Even with the heavy usage, hitters still do not know what to do with the pitch. Soroka also mixes in a sinker to get ground balls and a changeup as a weapon against left handed hitters.
This stuff has translated into better results lately. In June, he had a 3.49 ERA in 5 starts with a crazy .146 batting average against. He looks like a pitcher coming into his own.
The main issues Soroka has are home runs and the sixth inning. On so many occasions this season, the sixth inning has ruined great starts from Soroka. He has a crazy 18.56 ERA in the sixth. In his last start he managed a scoreless sixth, which is a good sign. His 1.52 HR/9 is also an issue that he needs to address.
Extend or Trade:
With the Trade Deadline coming up, the Nats have to make a decision with Soroka. Should they trade him, or give him a multi-year deal to make him a part of the teams future rotation. This looks like a pitcher who could be on the precipice of a breakout. He has so many strong indicators and looks to be so close.
Could those sixth inning issues be fixable? Given how little he has pitched over the last few years, those problems could be stamina issues that might be resolved as he gets used to going deeper into games. He seems to have a floor as either a five and dive starter or effective multi-inning reliever. However, I think he is close to being a true mid-rotation arm, which is such a valuable commodity.
Some of the more analytically inclined organizations are probably seeing the same things when it comes to Soroka. That means the Nats could get a strong return for him at the upcoming Trade Deadline. With Mike Rizzo’s love for winning a trade, there could be packages coming in that are too good to pass up.
However, if I were in Mike Rizzo’s shoes, I would be kicking the tires with Soroka’s agent to see what kind of deal he wants. He is not a Boras client, so a deal is there to be made. At just 27 and with clear middle of the rotation upside, would a theoretical return be worth it for the Nats?
This is the situation I will be watching most closely at the Trade Deadline. For me, Soroka has the highest upside of any starter in the Nationals rotation not named MacKenzie Gore. However, it is a gamble if you do not trade him. Losing him for nothing would be a tough pill to swallow.
Fans should be keeping an eye on what the Nats do with Michael Soroka because it has become such an interesting situation. Do you trade him for what should be a solid return or do you make him a piece of the rotation going forward? We will find out in the next month.