Mitchell Parker’s inconsistency has made him a bit of an enigma, how good is he really?
When you think about the Washington Nationals youth going forward towards the future. A lot of the focus shines on James Wood, C.J. Abrams, MaKenzie Gore and Dylan Crews. One guy that gets left out of the mix is 25-year-old Mitchell Parker.
The Nationals selected Parker in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB Draft, with the 153rd overall pick. The Lefty worked his way up the minors and made his debut last season in mid April when Josiah Gray got hurt. Parker appeared in 29 games, all as a starting pitcher. He compiled a 7 and 10 win-loss record with a 4.29 ERA over 151 innings pitched. During that span, he allowed 154 hits, 82 runs (72 earned), issued 43 walks, and struck out 133 batters.
Last season, Parker allowed one run or fewer in just 10 of his 29 starts. This year, he’s already done it 4 times in just 7 starts.
Hot Start to 2025
To start 2025, Parker has been a different pitcher. Parker opened the 2025 season looking like a budding stud. Through his first six starts, he posted a 2.65 ERA, highlighted by eight shutout innings against the Orioles on April 22, during which he retired the final 17 batters he faced. His command had noticeably improved from his rookie year.
Parker was attacking the zone with confidence and was showing that he can go deep into games. He was locating his fastball (93 MPH below league average), keeping hitters off balance with his breaking stuff, and generating plenty of weak contact. What is special about Parker, is that no body else in Major League Baseball has a higher arm angle (60.5°), making his delivery hard to pick up for hitters.
Recent Struggles
However, the past two starts have shown signs of regression. On May 2 against the Reds, Parker issued four walks, several of which turned into runs. His ERA climbed from 2.65 to 3.48 over 41.1 innings pitched, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped to just 1.25. What is making him struggle over his most recent starts is his command and movement on certain pitches. Although he boasts a WHIP of 1.21, which is still respectable, the trend of late is concerning.
This isn’t a new issue, Parker had a 13.1% walk rate in the minors from 2022 to 2023. Early in 2025, it looked like he had turned a corner, but recent starts suggest that old habits may be creeping back in.
Parker’s game isn’t built around strikeouts. His current 4.57 K/9 rate (21 strikeouts in 41.1 IP) is well below league average, but he makes up for it by generating weak contact. He has a 50% ground ball rate and elite 2.7% barrel rate (90th percentile). Which shows that when does locate, he is super effective.
Conclusion
So what could be the cause of his recent struggles? Maybe it’s early fatigue. Parker has already thrown 41.1 innings in 2025 and has gone six or more innings in five of his seven starts. His splitter and slider help him create grounders, which are the two pitches he is not seeing movement enough on.
Maybe it’s just the lineup ? In his most recent starts out of the teams he had faced, the Mets have the 5th best batting average against lefties this year at (.274) but the Reds don’t, Cincinnati is ranked 25th (.218). Boiling this down to command.
Unfortunately, the Mets roughed him up but if he doesn’t walk four batters against the Reds, I think we aren’t having as big of a discussion. Parker is right on the cusp of being at least a solid 2 or 3 guy in the rotation. Parker still has so much more room to grow, I’m just hoping what we saw to start the year was not a fluke.