With Christmas just a day away and more free-agent starting pitchers signed to contracts, it’s beginning to look a lot like the Orioles will have to trade for an additional starter.
Corbin Burnes remains a free agent, but no one is disclosing who might be the Orioles’ competition is for last season’s No. 1 starter, or if the team is still a viable choice for him.
After Monday’s reported agreements between the New York Mets and left-hander Sean Manaea on a three-year, $75 million contract with nearly a third of the money deferred, and the Boston Red Sox and right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year, $21.05 million contract, there are still some good free-agent starters available, but the number is smaller.
Jack Flaherty, who was with the Orioles for the last two months of 2023, remains on the market. So does Nick Pivetta, but he has a qualifying offer attached.
Veterans Kyle Gibson, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are unsigned, as are a host of less accomplished younger starters.
If Burnes or Flaherty isn’t signed by the Orioles, then presumably they’ll turn to the trade market after 2025 begins.
The biggest name reportedly available is San Diego’s Dylan Cease. According to BaseballReference.com, the most similar pitcher to Cease is Flaherty. Minnesota’s Pablo López, who also could be available, is the sixth most similar pitcher to Cease.
In 2022, Cease had the highest WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for any pitcher in the American League, 6.4, and in 2024, he had a 4.2 WAR for the Padres when he went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA. He finished fourth in Cy Young voting
Burnes’ 3.4 WAR was lower, and Cease, who’ll turn 29 on Sunday, is a year younger.
In order to get Burnes, Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias gave up a top infield prospect, Joey Ortiz, left-handed pitcher DL Hall and the Prospect Promotion Incentive pick they received when Gunnar Henderson won the American League Rookie of the Year in 2023.
Like Burnes, Cease has just one year before he’s a free agent, and if he has another strong year, he could be the most attractive starting pitcher available in the free-agent market.
While the Orioles don’t have a PPI pick to trade, they could trade a competitive balance pick, something Elias might be reluctant to do.
The farm system isn’t as strong as it was a year ago because of promotions and trades.
I can’t see the Orioles trading Jackson Holliday, and they want to see what Heston Kjerstad can do over a full major league season.
If the two top prospects — corner infielder Coby Mayo and catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo — are off-limits, Elias will have to be creative or persuasive, and he is both, to pull off a deal attractive enough to the Padres for Cease.
Since last year, the Orioles have traded Ortiz and infielder Connor Norby for starting pitching. Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers were sent to Miami for left-hander Trevor Rogers, who had a 7.11 ERA in four starts with the Orioles.
Ortiz and Norby were high-end prospects, but a large number of their top prospects are raw, international players, and it’s not known if that would be appealing to San Diego general manager A.J. Preller—or other GMs who have excess starters.
Another option could be left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who is familiar to the Orioles because of his time with the New York Yankees. Montgomery, who as a free agent a year ago didn’t sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks until late March, had a disappointing season with them. Montgomery was 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA in 25 games and invoked his $22.5 million player option for 2025. Perhaps the Orioles could arrange a trade and hope for a bounce-back season.
Notes: The Orioles announced the signings of right-hander Matt Bowman and outfielder Jordyn Adams to minor league contracts, which were previously reported. They also signed 24-year-old right-hander Gerald Ogando, who spent six seasons in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization, to a minor league contract. Ogando was 2-5 with a 5.95 ERA in 39 games with Charleston and Lexington of the independent Atlantic League in 2024 … Tampa Bay signed designated hitter Eloy Jiménez to a minor league contract. Jiménez was acquired from the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline and hit .232 with a home run and seven RBIs in 33 games with the Orioles.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.