The Orioles as of now are in total control of a wild card spot, but it’s the division title they’re after.
Not too long ago, scoreboard watching was a fruitless exercise for Orioles fans. During the particularly ugly eras of noncompetitive O’s baseball, there was never much reason to care how other teams were doing, as their success or failure made no difference to an Orioles team that was destined for last place. The only reason to consult the division standings was to calculate how soon the O’s were mathematically eliminated.
Those times, thankfully, are behind us. With the Orioles now in the midst of a grand new era as perennial contenders, fans can’t help but track their journey toward another postseason appearance. So even though it’s only June, let’s check in on how the Orioles, and their competitors, are faring in the American League playoff race.
It’s really remarkable how quickly this turned into a two-team race, a testament both to the excellence of the Yankees and the Orioles and the stark underperformance of the other three teams. The Blue Jays and Rays were expected to be challengers for the division pennant, yet each team finds itself wallowing behind even the Red Sox, who barely put an effort into building a contender this offseason.
That leaves the Evil Empire as the Orioles’ only true resistance to a repeat AL East title, and I must regretfully inform you that the Yankees are (heavy sigh) very good. Entering Monday, they had both the best team ERA (2.90) and the best team OPS (.772) in all of MLB, and more home runs than any team but the Orioles. They’ve got two frontrunners for AL MVP in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and a candidate for AL Cy Young in rookie Luis Gil. Judge in particular is an unstoppable baseball-crushing machine, batting .419/.540/1.026 with 18 homers in his last 34 games. And if you’re thinking, “Wow, a 1.026 OPS is incredible”…yeah, to be clear, that’s just his slugging percentage. His OPS in that span is 1.566.
So, yes, the Yankees are going to be a problem, especially once defending Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole returns from the elbow inflammation that has sidelined him all year. Expect this to be a neck-and-neck battle for the rest of the season, and with nine games remaining between the two clubs — including a series at Yankee Stadium in the final week — this race could come down to the wire.
If the Yankees manage to continue their devil magic all season and win the division, the Orioles do at least have a feasible Plan B to reach the playoffs, currently holding the top wild card spot by a comfortable margin. The surprising Royals, too, have a leg up on the second wild card berth, leaving a jumble of teams — just one of which is currently above .500 — fighting for the final postseason spot.
It being June, only three teams are completely dead and buried in the wild card race: the woeful A’s, Angels, and White Sox. But the defending AL West champion Astros, barring a turnaround, will see their streak of seven consecutive ALCS appearances come to an end by missing the playoffs entirely. They have played better of late after once falling as far as 12 games under .500, but their rotation has been decimated by injuries, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy the latest starting pitchers to be lost for the season. Few baseball fans will shed a tear if the Astros miss out.
As for the rest of this jumble of mediocrities…who knows? The Twins have been a Jekyll and Hyde act, starting the season 7-13, then winning 12 games in a row and 16 of 19, followed by seven straight losses, then a 9-3 stretch immediately chased by a 1-5. Are they good? Are they bad? Even they don’t seem to know. The Tigers have been better than expected, led by breakout ace Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty, who annoyingly only became a good pitcher after leaving the Orioles.
Meanwhile, the reigning World Series champions have been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments. The Rangers put top prospect Wyatt Langford on the Opening Day roster to join last year’s postseason hero Evan Carter for a 1-2 punch of stellar rookies, but the two have posted an OPS of just .610 and .633 respectively for a middle-of-the-pack Texas offense. Still, we’ve seen the Rangers go into extended cold spells before — including just last year, when they blew a division lead down the stretch before catching fire in the playoffs — and they’ll have plenty more games against the AL West non-contenders to fatten up their win total.
AL postseason matchups if the season ended today
#1 Yankees (AL East winner) — first round bye
#2 Guardians (AL Central winner) — first round bye
#3 Mariners (AL West winner) host #6 Twins (third wild card) in WC Series
#4 ORIOLES (first wild card) host #5 Royals (second wild card) in WC Series
No. No. I don’t want any part of the Orioles playing the Royals in the postseason. On paper, the O’s are clearly the more talented team. But the O’s were also clearly the more talented team in the 2014 ALCS, only for the Royals to get hot at the right time and catch every break on their way to sweeping the Birds, with every win by just one or two runs. I still haven’t recovered. If the Orioles lose to the Royals in the playoffs again, I’m leaving the country forever. Don’t think I won’t do it.
There are, of course, nearly 100 games remaining on most teams’ schedules, so the playoff picture as it currently stands is subject (and likely) to change. My brain is hard-wired to find it absurd that three AL Central teams could make the playoffs, even if the division isn’t the laughingstock it once was. It wouldn’t be shocking for one or more of the straggling AL East teams to get hot and sneak into a wild card spot, and I wouldn’t count out the Rangers, either.
The Orioles can make things easy on themselves by continuing to do one thing: win. If they handle their own business, they’ll lock down a playoff spot one way or the other, and then the fun really begins.