Adley has moved from patience towards more aggression and is putting up big numbers so far.
Everyone who’s watched the Orioles’ rise from baseball’s basement to the penthouse of MLB knows that Adley Rutschman has been the heart and soul of this team’s reimagining. After all, the Orioles have won 60% of their games since Adley’s arrival in late May of 2022. The hot starts from Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser this year have largely shifted the spotlight away from the best catcher in baseball. However, a new aggressive approach from Adley is producing results that demand our attention.
The fact that the Orioles backstop is once again leading all MLB catchers in hits is not altogether surprising. We’ve come to know Adley as a player who has excellent command of the strike zone and can drive the ball to all fields. Since Adley stepped into the big leagues, he’s also been one of the most patient and disciplined hitters in baseball. Last year he ranked 8th in all the majors with 4.26 pitches per plate appearance, while his walk rate, strikeout and swing-and-miss rate were all in the 90th percentile or above.
Through 150 plate appearances this season, we’re seeing the best Adley Rutschman we’ve ever seen. He’s on pace to set career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, RBIs and runs scored. And yet, the AL’s reigning Silver Slugger at catcher is putting up all these numbers with a decidedly un-Adley-like approach.
The normally patient Rutschman has taken on the alter ego of Aggressive Adley so far in the 2024 season. After seeing more pitches than almost anyone last year, Adley is down to 3.80 pitches per plate appearance in 2024—below the major league average of 3.91 from 2023. The more glaring difference, though, comes in Adley’s walk rates and chase rates. After putting up a 13.4% walk rate (91st percentile) and 23.4% chase rate (81st percentile) last season, those numbers are both below the 25th percentile in 2024.
This season’s Adley is certainly less selective in the pitches he attacks, and it’s that aggressiveness that has him fourth in the AL in batting average and consistently hitting the stuffing out of the ball. The uptick in exit velocity is perhaps the encouraging sign of development for the 26-year-old face of the franchise. Perhaps the biggest concern with Rutschman’s performance last year was the amount of weak contact he generated. His average exit velocity was a measly 88mph—almost 4mph lower than team exit velocity king Gunnar Henderson. Adley’s hard hit rate of 38.6% was good enough for 167th in all of baseball.
It’s the backdrop of last year’s stats that make Adley’s current performance so exciting. His average exit velocity is up to 90mph and his hard hit rate is all the way up to 48.2%. Whereas last year, his hard hit rate put him in the company of players like Jonathan India and Jorge Mateo, this year he has noted sluggers Yordan Alvarez and Austin Riley for company.
This aggressive approach has Adley on pace to etch his name all across the Orioles statistical history books. The Orioles backstop is on pace to tie Miguel Tejada’s franchise record of 214 hits in a season. If he can maintain his current .324 batting average, he’d set a franchise record for a catcher and he’s only 16 points behind Melvin Mora’s overall record of .340. Adley is also on pace to become the first catcher in franchise history to reach 100 RBIs on the season.
All that projection does beg the question of just how sustainable this is for Rutschman. After all, he currently ranks 19th in all of baseball in expected batting average at .306, and he’s outperforming that expected average by 18 points. Any time there’s a significant difference between a hitter’s expected numbers and the stats they’re actually putting up it leaves room for some regression.
Perhaps the more worrying aspect of Adley’s early season is the Shakespearean-level dramatic difference between his left and right splits. No matter which way you slice it, Adley is the best hitter against lefties so far this season. His .482 batting average against southpaws leads all major league hitters, and he also tops the leaderboards in hits, RBIs and home runs against lefties. Adley has truly led the charge in turning the Orioles performance against lefties from a perceived weakness to a definitive strength.
However, much like the rest of the Orioles team, Rutschman’s performance against righties has been subpar. Adley came into the season with a career average of .272 and slugging percentage of .453 vs. right-handers. This year, those numbers have dropped to .217 and .277—with his slugging percentage against righties nearly 500 points lower than it is against lefties.
It’d be almost impossible for Adley to continue his torrid pace against left handers; last season Ozzie Albies led all of MLB with a .391 average vs. southpaws. That being said, as his numbers against lefties inevitably regress, we should also see some positive regression as he gets more at-bats against right-handers.
Even the inevitable effects of regression can’t undo the evolution we’re seeing from Adley Rutschman, though. We thought that Adley’s willingness to take pitches and wait for the right one to pounce on was his greatest strength. Now, he’s showing us that—just like he can switch sides of the plate—he can also switch up his approach at the plate. And if the early results are anything to go by, don’t be surprised if this more aggressive approach results in him stealing some MVP votes from Gunnar Henderson at the end of the year.