When Opening Day arrives in late March, the Orioles’ projected five-man rotation is an all right-handed group with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer and Tomoyuki Sugano.
Could a lefty factor in?
Certainly, with Cade Povich a rotation contender who got the team’s attention with an ERA of 2.60 in five September starts.
There is also Trevor Rogers, a player the O’s acquired from Miami last July in exchange for prospects Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. Rogers’ first impression with his new team was not a good one. After he had pitched to an ERA of 3.17 in his last nine starts for Miami before the trade, Rogers had an ERA of 7.11 in four O’s outings.
He was then optioned to the minor leagues and ended the year pitching, not in the postseason for Baltimore, but in the regular season with Norfolk. He has options remaining and could begin the season back on the farm, waiting for a chance to join the O’s rotation.
During an interview this winter for an article on MASNSports.com, Rogers told me about his offseason plans and about a specific area he would be targeting in the weight room to try to get his velocity back.
In 2021, he was a National League All-Star as a rookie, a season that ended with his second-place Rookie of the Year finish. But in 52 starts since that season, Rogers’ ERA is 5.09 with the Marlins and Orioles.
So, this winter was about gaining more velocity that he believes would lead to a lower ERA. He is still confident he’ll be a quality pitcher in the Baltimore rotation.
Rogers averaged 94.5 mph on his fastball during his strong 2021 season. Last year, that was down to 91.9. Via Statcast metrics, he was in the top 5 percent in 2021 in “fastball run value” but last year he was in the bottom 19 percent.
Rogers recalled a conversation with O’s pitching coach Drew French when they optioned him to Triple-A last August. French told Rogers they had a long-range plan to help him and knew he would be under team control through 2026.
“The main thing, just the way baseball is trending, is that – velocity is king,” Rogers said. “We’ve really done a good job, and they’ve done a good job, of the strength and conditioning aspects of it and where I have been lacking with strength just with the injuries throughout the years.”
In sessions at Driveline baseball performance center in Phoenix, Rogers found one area that needed immediate attention.
“The Orioles and Driveline, we’ve been in constant communication, just making sure we are all on the same page,” Rogers told me. “We looked at the numbers and my lower-body strength was far below average. So, it correlates with velocity.
“To be honest, I was happy to see that. If everything was right in the middle or average, we might have a bigger question. But knowing that was lacking and it contributed to my lower velocity, I was excited to know there is an answer. And I can work to attain the goal of getting stronger.”
The Orioles, Driveline and Rogers agreed that a velocity gain is possible. Rogers has specific numbers in mind.
“The bottom end, if I could stay on the low end, consistently 93, 94, that plays a lot better in the big leagues than 88 to 91, especially coming from the left side. If it can grab a 95, 96 from time to time, then we’re rolling with steam,” he said.
Right now, expectations from O’s fans aren’t high, but Rogers thinks he can change that. While the radar gun isn’t the only measurement for a pitcher, for Rogers, it could be big.