With five teams having a reasonable shot at the three wild card spots, everything hinges on these final nine games of the season.
Each week on Camden Chat, we’ve been checking in on the American League postseason contenders. With the season winding down to its final nine games, things are heating up in the wild card race while the divisions are more or less settled. Let’s take a look.
I’m only mentioning the AL East race out of obligation, not because I believe the Orioles have any real shot at winning it. The Yankees were practically begging someone else to take the division during their mid-season swoon, but the Orioles were all, “Oh, heavens no, we couldn’t possibly. You keep it.” The O’s are nothing if not polite.
The Yankees became the first AL team to clinch a playoff berth (with the Guardians following a day later) and now their magic number to clinch the division is six. It will most likely happen during their series against the Orioles at Yankee Stadium next week, which is going to be painful for the O’s —and their fans — to watch. Probably should’ve played better, Orioles.
With the AL division titles all but clinched by the Yankees, Guardians, and Astros, the wild card is where the action lies. And wild is the right word for it. With nine games remaining, five teams are in or within two games of a wild card spot. (Technically the sub-.500 Red Sox and Rays aren’t eliminated yet, either, but would need a miracle to get in.) Here’s how the five main teams are trending.
Baltimore Orioles
- Record: 85-68, currently in first wild card spot
- Postseason odds (per Baseball Reference): 99.4%
- Remaining schedule: 3 vs. DET, 3 @ NYY, 3 @ MIN
You don’t need me to tell you that it’s been a rough second half for the Orioles, and it’s only gotten worse of late, with four consecutive series losses. They still have a comfortable cushion to make the playoffs in some capacity, but they’re not exactly carrying momentum into the postseason. The O’s got plenty of help from the Tigers, who swept the Royals to keep the Birds three games up for the top spot — technically four, since the O’s own the tiebreaker against K.C. — but now the Birds will need to beat those same Tigers to keep from slipping again.
It’s hard to overstate how important Anthony Santander’s walkoff home run yesterday was. Had the O’s lost the game and gotten swept by the Giants, their last sub-.500 opponent, they’d be in shambles as they entered their final nine-game stretch against playoff contenders. The win gave them a bit of breathing room, and a couple of victories during this final gauntlet will punch their ticket to October.
Kansas City Royals
- Record: 82-71, currently in second wild card spot
- Postseason odds: 88.1%
- Remaining schedule: 3 vs. SF, 3 @ WAS, 3 @ATL
The streaky Royals have now lost four in a row, just after winning seven of nine, which immediately followed a seven-game losing streak. This team is all over the place. They’re a much more dangerous club at home, where they’re 45-33, than on the road, where they’re under .500 at 37-38. You’d better believe they’re aiming for that top wild card spot so they can host the Wild Card Series instead of having to play all three games on the road.
Somehow the Royals end the season with nine straight interleague games. They’re already done playing against every AL opponent, so they have no more chances to control their own destiny against a direct competitor. Still, it’s a favorable schedule overall, with six games against non-contenders. That final weekend in Atlanta, though, could be a tough task if the Braves still have something to play for (they’re currently 1.5 games out of the third NL wild card spot).
Minnesota Twins
- Record: 80-73, currently tied for third wild card spot
- Postseason odds: 50.3%
- Remaining schedule: 3 @ BOS, 3 vs. MIA, 3 vs. BAL
If there’s one reason to think the Orioles’ collapse won’t cost them a playoff spot, it’s that the Twins are collapsing, too — and they’ve got much less margin for error than the Birds. This past week was an absolutely brutal one for Minnesota, who lost a series to the Reds and then suffered heart-breaking losses in three of their four games in Cleveland. The Guardians won all three in their final at-bat, including two walkoff wins after trailing by multiple runs in the late innings. The Twins’ bullpen gave up 16 earned runs in 17 innings (8.47 ERA) in their five losses this week. Among them was recent ex-Oriole Cole Irvin, who blew a sixth-inning lead in his second Twins outing yesterday.
The latest loss pulled the Twins into a tie with the Tigers for the third wild card spot. The good news is that Minnesota owns the tiebreaker over Detroit — winning the season series by the slimmest of margins, 7-6 — so if those two teams finish with identical records, the Twins are in. But if they continue to play they way they have lately, the Twins won’t be able to keep pace with the Tigers or anyone else.
Detroit Tigers
- Record: 80-73, currently tied for third wild card spot
- Postseason odds: 55.1%
- Remaining schedule: 3 @ BAL, 3 vs. TB, 3 vs. CHW
I…still can’t believe the Tigers are doing this. A little more than a month ago, on Aug. 10, Detroit was tied for the fourth-worst record in the American League (55-63). They had (rightly) been sellers at the trade deadline, dealing away their second best starter, Jack Flaherty. Nobody considered them a contender. They were long shots to even finish the season at .500.
Since that day, they’re 25-10, the best record in baseball. Tarik Skubal, who’s on his way to his first Cy Young Award, has led a pitching staff with an MLB-best 2.70 ERA in the last month. A young lineup, consisting entirely of players under 30, has come through in key situations. The Tigers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, erasing their once 10-game wild card deficit to pull into a tie for the third spot.
A series win against the Orioles this weekend would help the Tigers keep the pressure on the competition. After that they get a winnable series against the Rays and then three cupcake games against the White Sox, who by then likely will have set the record for most losses in modern major league history. The Tigers, against all odds, may very well pull this thing off.
Seattle Mariners
- Record: 78-75, currently two games behind for third wild card spot
- Postseason odds: 7.3%
- Remaining schedule: 3 @TEX, 3 @ HOU, 3 vs. OAK
The Mariners, led by their stellar pitching staff but burdened by their terrible offense, are still in the wild card race despite being barely above average overall. They face an uphill climb, having to pass multiple teams in just 10 days, but if the Tigers cool off and the Twins (or Royals) keep collapsing, who knows?
The Mariners’ nine remaining games will come entirely against their own division, with road series in Texas and Houston and a final home set versus the A’s, so they won’t get to face any of their wild card competitors directly. They’re going to need to get a lot of help from other clubs, and they can’t afford any slip-ups of their own — like, say, getting the tying run thrown out at third base because he was distracted by a flying bat.