Red-hot Boston has pulled into playoff position while the defending World Series champions are in a bad way.
The Orioles, despite their performance against the Cubs the last two nights, are in excellent position to make a return to the playoffs in 2024. With the pre-All Star break schedule coming to a close this weekend, let’s check in on which other AL teams have cemented themselves as contenders in the first half, and which have all but fallen out of the race.
With each passing day, the Yankees become less of a threat in the AL East and the Red Sox become more of one. Their June 16 contest on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball — in which the Sox ran wild for a team-record nine stolen bases to blow out the Yanks — was a critical turning point for the two clubs, vaulting the Sox into a red-hot stretch and plummeting the Yankees into their current doldrums. Entering that day, the Yankees were 13 games ahead of the Red Sox. Now, less than a month later, the Sox have shaved nine games off that deficit, closing in on the Yanks for second place with eyes on the Orioles for first.
The Sox have seven games remaining against both the O’s and Yanks the rest of the season, though that might not be good news for them in the former case. The Orioles have dominated the Red Sox with a 5-1 record in head-to-head matchups so far this year.
Although the Orioles are in control of the AL East for now, we’ll continue to keep tabs on the wild card race in case the Birds get knocked out of the top spot. The collapsing Yankees at least have the fallback option of three wild card spots to back their way into the playoffs, and as of now they’re five games ahead of the first non-playoff team. That could, of course, change if they can’t pull themselves out of their freefall.
The Rays are somehow still hanging on despite a -66 run differential, the worst in the AL other than the three doormat teams (Angels, A’s, White Sox). Tampa Bay, a transactional team by nature, certainly wouldn’t be afraid to punt on 2024 and deal veterans by the July 30 trade deadline.
It’s going to be a tougher decision for the Rangers, who are even further behind than the Rays despite a +9 run differential. For the defending World Series champions to enter sell-off mode at the deadline would be a somewhat surprising development, but given their position in the standings, it’s probably their best course of action. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Texas could put some veteran hurlers on the trade market, including Nathan Eovaldi, David Robertson, or Kirby Yates. If the Rangers have pitchers for sale, the Orioles should be on the phone.
I haven’t mentioned the Tigers much in these AL contender updates, and for good reason: I don’t think there’s even a remote possibility that they’ll make the postseason. But they have taken two out of three so far from the division-leading Guardians this week. Still, Detroit should be a clear seller at the trade deadline, if the Tigers have any players other than Tarik Skubal who other teams want.
AL postseason matchups if the season ended today
#1 Guardians (AL Central winner) — first round bye
#2 ORIOLES (AL East winner) — first round bye
#3 Mariners (AL West winner) host #6 Red Sox (third wild card) in WC Series
#4 Yankees (first wild card) host #5 Twins (second wild card) in WC Series
Great. If the Yankees play the Twins in the first round, just go ahead and punch New York’s ticket to the Division Series. The Twins’ historic ineptitude against the Yankees is the stuff of legends. They’ve faced off in six postseason series and the Yanks have won all six, with the Twins going 2-16 in those games, including 13 consecutive losses dating back to 2004.
It’s not as if their futility versus the Yankees is limited to October, either. Since moving to Minnesota in 1961, the Twins have a pitiful .407 all-time winning percentage against the Yankees, their worst against any AL team. And in just the last four years, the Twins are 7-20 against New York. So if you’re hoping for an early Yankees exit from the postseason — if they get there at all — hopefully they’ll end up with a different first-round opponent than their decades-long punching bag.
Also of note: the Mariners would win their division and host the wild card series even though, at 51-43, they currently have a worse record than all three wild card teams. I didn’t have “The AL West will be the worst division in baseball” on my 2024 bingo card, but here we are.
Soon enough, all of these teams will get a much-needed four days of rest. We’ll see which teams come bursting out of the chute after the All-Star break as well as which ones will pull off significant trades to bolster their rosters for the regular season and beyond. The Orioles, we hope, will fall into both categories.