With one month left to play, six teams are in good shape to make the playoffs, but some fringe contenders are trying to make a late charge.
Each week on Camden Chat, we’ve been checking in on the American League postseason contenders. Six teams are solidifying their bids for the playoffs, but two division races are very much up in the air at the moment. Where will the Orioles land when it’s all said and done?
The Orioles couldn’t overtake the Yankees for first place this past week, which is not a surprise considering each team’s opponents. The Yanks got to face the sub-.500 Rockies and Nationals, and even though they went a mediocre 3-3 during that stretch, it was enough to fend off an O’s team that had to play seven against the division-leading Astros and Dodgers, dropping four of them.
The Yankees will continue to stroll through an easy stretch of competition, with their next six games coming against the Cardinals, a .500 team that’s slipping out of the NL wild card race, and the Rangers, who fell out of contention quite some time ago. But the Orioles get a welcome reprieve in their schedule, too, with three games against the 50-85 Rockies and then three against the 31-104 White Sox. No, that record is not a typo. 31-104.
I know I should be feeling confident about the Orioles’ upcoming week of games, but honestly I’m kind of terrified. On paper it should be a great opportunity for them to finally stack some wins, but I can absolutely picture something going horribly wrong and the O’s going, like, 2-4 in that stretch. If the O’s lose even one game to the White Sox, well, I advise you to stay away from social media because it’s going to be an ugly scene.
The heavyweight matchup of the week was between the Guardians and Royals, fighting for first place in the AL Central, and it was Kansas City that answered the call. The Royals stunned the Guards by winning the first three games of the series, temporarily pulling into a first-place tie, before Cleveland rallied back from a 5-2 seventh-inning deficit in the finale to avert a sweep.
This competition could go down to the wire, and while both clubs will probably make the postseason regardless, no doubt they’d prefer to win the division — and likely get a first-round bye — rather than settling for a wild card. The Guardians and Royals will play each other again this coming week in Kansas City. Before that, the Royals face a challenging four-game series in Houston (where they lost the opener last night) while the Guardians get a cakewalk by facing the lowly Pirates.
Meanwhile, are the Tigers somehow still alive? I didn’t even include them in last week’s wild card update because they had fallen a seemingly insurmountable 9.5 games behind. Now they’ve whittled that deficit to 5 in the span of a week, thanks to a season-best six-game winning streak (which was snapped yesterday) and a 1-5 performance by the Twins. Detroit had the good fortune of facing the two worst teams in the AL — the White Sox and Angels — and took full advantage of their soft schedule. The Tigers start a three-game series this weekend against the Red Sox, one of the teams in front of them, as they try to continue climbing up the standings.
The Twins have staggered through their recent interleague slate, losing three straight series to the Padres, Cardinals, and Braves, the last one a sweep. They’re losing hope of overtaking the Guardians and Royals for the AL Central crown, and now just need to focus on maintaining a wild card spot. The Twins return to American League competition this coming week, facing two sub-.500 teams in the Blue Jays and Rays.
Minnesota’s struggles have also brought Seattle a bit closer to the pack. The M’s went 4-2 last week under new manager Dan Wilson, including a series win over the Rays, who they’ve now jumped in the standings. The Mariners’ next seven games are against the two worst teams in the West, the Angels and A’s.
Then there’s the Red Sox, who continue to be their own worst enemy with their inability to win at Fenway Park. Boston’s 31-38 home record is the third-worst in the AL, worse even than the Athletics, who have one foot out of the door in Oakland. The Sox got swept at home by Arizona and also lost the resumption of a suspended game against the Blue Jays. Sorry about the loss, Danny Jansen, but also, congrats on the win, Danny Jansen!
AL postseason matchups if the season ended today
#1 Yankees (AL East winner) — first round bye
#2 Guardians (AL Central winner) — first round bye
#3 Astros (AL West winner) host #6 Twins (third wild card) in WC Series
#4 ORIOLES (first wild card) host #5 Royals (second wild card) in WC Series
The Orioles, despite currently having the second best record in the American League, would be relegated to the #4 seed due to sharing a division with the AL-best Yankees. That would mean a terrifying best-of-three matchup with the Royals, a team that no O’s fan wants to see in the postseason after what happened in 2014.
Only Salvador Perez remains from the Kansas City club that bounced the Birds from the playoffs a decade ago, but they’ve got more than enough quality starters for a three-game series — Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, and Michael Wacha each have an ERA+ of 124 or better — and young superstar Bobby Witt Jr. could potentially win a series just by himself.
I’d almost rather the Royals win the AL Central so that the Orioles — if they have to settle for a wild card — would get a matchup against the Guardians or Twins instead. Then again, if the O’s limp into October playing the way they have been for the last two months, I won’t be feeling particularly optimistic no matter who their opponent is.