Cowser finishes the Wild Card series a dreadful 1-for-7 with 3 strikeouts, including a rally-killing K in the fifth inning of Game 2.
• The Score: Orioles and Royals tied at 1 in the fifth inning
• The Setup: Bases juiced, after Cedric Mullins ties the game at 1 on one swing.
• The Moment: With one out, Colton Cowser strikes out swinging on a pitch that also breaks his hand.
• Before: Orioles win expectancy 77%
• After: Orioles WE 59%
• The Shift: -9.5%
Source: baseballsavant.mlb.com
We at Camden Chat are getting to be a broken record here, but one more time, a pearl of wisdom: you can’t win if you don’t score. Despite a very strong collective pitching performance, with only three runs allowed over two games, the Orioles couldn’t overcome the Royals’s small-ball ability, and they got swept in the Wild Card Series. Their 2024 season is over. I hate writing it; you hate reading it. Nope, neither of us is happy right now.
Much as it’s been for the last four months in a row, this was a problem of runners being left on base. In such situations on Wednesday, the O’s went 0-for-6, with nine left aboard. In fact, the team’s lone run of the series came on a Cedric Mullins solo home run. Did you predict before the playoffs that Mullins would turn out to be the Orioles’ best postseason hitter? I certainly didn’t, but with a .429 average and 1.429 OPS, that’s what he was. Shame no one else showed up.
Cowser’s ill-timed strikeout was a game-changer and a bummer, for a lot of reasons, but the main one was that this game was totally winnable for Baltimore. Zach Eflin wasn’t pitch-efficient, but he only allowed one run in four innings, and that would have been just fine for a team not in the offensive doldrums.
Especially because Mullins’s fifth-inning, game-tying blast came with no outs, and because right after it, the Orioles had the bases loaded on a Ramón Urías single, a Gunnar Henderson walk, and Jordan Westburg reaching on an error. Sacks full, no outs: in fact, the Birds had a win expectancy of 77% by that point. We can do this, right? We can manufacture a run and take the lead, yes?
No, we could not. Anthony Santander popped out, and to replace starter Seth Lugo, the Royals went to lefty reliever Angel Zerpa, who quickly made it 0-2 against Colton Cowser, missed with a slider in the dirt, and then got the rookie outfielder to come around, hands and body, on this pitch: #4.
See it? Look at that pitch. It’s barely in the frame. It’s barely in the frame because it’s nowhere near the strike zone. Because it’s not a pitch you should swing at.
I’m sorry Cowser fractured his hand, but … all he had to do was stand there and not swing, and the game is tied. Two-strike approach much? I don’t know if choking up on the bat is the common wisdom anymore, but the Orioles were taking bad hacks all day. Zerpa is a guy with a 9.82 ERA in August. He shouldn’t have been making our hitters look bad. That’s our fault, less than his merit.
After Cowser’s K, the Orioles’ win expectancy, which had shot up to 77% after Westburg reached first to load the bases with no outs, sank back to earth. Even after Santander’s pop foul out, the O’s still had a 69% chance of winning. Cowser’s terrible strike three swing made it 59%. Then Rutschman grounded out for the third out of the inning, and it was back to a 50-50 game. Advantage: squandered.
With Eflin lifted so early, I wasn’t sure who would cover the remaining five innings, and I don’t think this is the bullpen to throw into such a crucible. Cionel Pérez relieved Jacob Webb with one out in the sixth, proceeded to strike out one and allow two singles, and then Yennier Cano got rather unlucky as Bobby Witt Jr.—that guy again—singled home the game-winner for the second night in a row, an infield single that Jordan Westburg gloved, but not fast enough to stop the runner from coming home from third.
To be a broken record once more: Orioles pitchers did their part today. The offense cannot say the same.
What can I tell you? This is a tremendously disappointing end to the season. We need some time to process the hurt and surprise, but after that, we have to take stock of a second straight playoff washout. This time around, it seems likely that fingers will be pointed, and changes will eventually be made.