From an unheralded college reliever to the O’s No. 27 prospect, Pham is still trying to hit his ceiling as a starter.
The 2023 season marked a triple milestone for Alex Pham. Not only did the little-hyped right hander get a chance to be a starter for the first time since before college, he also led all Orioles pitching prospects in ERA, xFIP, WHIP and K/BB and finally forced his way onto the organization’s Top 30 prospects list (#29). Not bad for a four-year college reliever drafted in the nineteenth round for a grand total of $25,000.
In four years at the University of San Francisco, the 5’11” right hander started fewer than ten times, and for two seasons after being drafted, the Orioles kept him in a relief role. Then, after the 2022 season ended, he got a call from O’s minors coach Forrest Herrmann to see if he would be up to convert to starting pitching. The O’s liked his five-pitch mix: Pham throws a four-seamer that can touch the mid 90s, plus a cutter, a curve, and a slider and splitter that the Orioles helped develop.
It was a good call, as Pham really took his chance as a starter and ran with it. Over 112 innings between High-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie, he posted a 2.57 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and 1.02 WHIP that led all Orioles organizational pitchers, plus a .182 opposing average. His 29.4% strikeout rate ranked fifth in the organization.
As for 2024, it wasn’t quite what he’d hoped for, with Double-A hitters proving more of a challenge than expected. In 27 starts, Pham went 7-4 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. It wasn’t enough to earn him a call-up to Triple-A Norfolk, not this year.
Pham manage to keep his strikeout rate consistent from year to year, at 10.45 batters a game, but of concern were walks and hits. As a member of the bullpen with Delmarva/Aberdeen, Pham had walked close to five hitters per game, but in his breakout 2023 season he cut that to 3.38 as a starter, the lowest rate of his career, including college. At the end of that year, Pham even managed to walk just 2.52 hitters a game in fourteen starts at Bowie. In 2024, his walk rate escalated to 3.78—not as bad as before, but not excellent, either. As for hits, while he’d allowed a measly 5.79 per game in ’23, that rate jumped to 7.34 in ’24.
The good news: stats would suggest Pham is figuring it out. His monthly splits are pretty encouraging, in fact, as his ERA, runs allowed, opposing average and WHIP ticked down in nearly every month.
https://www.milb.com/player/alex-pham-702129?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2024
Overall, he didn’t progress fast enough to earn a Triple-A callup, but these numbers are moving in the right direction.
At 5’11”, Pham doesn’t have an overpowering build, and his fastball lives at 92-93 mph, touching 96 mph. But the pitch does have ride and deception: Pipeline calls it “hoppy.” Pham can, and says he likes to, mix up his pitches, so even though his offerings get average grades from scouts individually, his arsenal may be more than the sum of its parts. He likes to use his cutter and curve against his lefties, and his new-ish slider against righties, plus the occasional changeup.
Here is Pham finishing off a lefty with a breaking ball during a four-inning, six-strikeout performance in September:
And here he is riding the heater during an outstanding three-hit effort over seven innings, where you can see some of the ride on the pitch:
The question, to my eye, is how far Pham can get with an average fastball, although it’s worth noting that he’s never had a problem striking out hitters. Hopefully he can keep the momentum going next year in Triple-A. What will be key, of course, will be walks and strikeouts. (When isn’t it?)
Overall, Alex Pham has produced a lot more value than the Orioles had any right to expect out of a reliever drafted in the nineteenth round. The rare pitcher whose move to the rotation has only seemed to make his stuff better, Pham has picked up two new pitches while with the org and it looks like he’s absorbing the lessons Orioles coaches are trying to impart. A great developmental project.
Says Pham, “Getting recognition is a very nice thing, but, regardless I am just here to, I guess, earn the right to wear an Oriole on my chest.”
Previous 2024 prospect reviews: Heston Kjerstad, Frederick Bencosme, Justin Armbruester, Leandro Arias, Brandon Young, Creed Willems, Trace Bright, Braylin Tavera, Michael Forret, Thomas Sosa, 2024 draft picks, Aron Estrada
Tomorrow: Luis de León