If the O’s want to make a deep postseason run, they need to score a whole lot of runs.
Things are not going well for the Orioles. They aren’t going terribly either. They are simply…going. Since June 13, the O’s are 31-33, and yet they are actually one game closer to first place in the AL East than they were at the beginning of these 2.5 mediocre months of play.
There is one, big legitimate excuse that explains why the Orioles have been so meh in that time. Injuries have piled up, especially on the pitching side of things. Kyle Bradish and John Means have been ruled out for the season in that time with elbow injuries, joining Tyler Wells on the extended IL. Dean Kremer missed more than a month. Grayson Rodriguez is currently recovering from his second ailment of the season. And newbie Zach Eflin is also taking a brief stay on the IL.
So, it tracks that the Orioles have seen their pitching staff transform from one of the league’s best (3.08 ERA, 10.5 fWAR through June 12, both were third in MLB) to a subpar staff since then (4.75 ERA, 3.7 fWAR since June 13, both bottom-third of MLB). There’s only so much a team can do to recover from losing nearly an entire rotation’s worth of pitchers in short order. The bullpen falling apart in the same stretch only made matters worse.
The pitching struggles have put the entire weight of the Orioles’ postseason dreams onto the shoulders of the lineup. That group was elite through the season’s early going. As of June 12, they were first in home runs (106) third in MLB in runs scored (344) and second in runs per game (5.13). Since June 13, things have still been solid, but less dominant. They are fifth in home runs (93), fifth in runs scored, and down to 4.83 runs per game in that time.
You do not have to be much of a math person to understand that if your offense averages 4.83 runs per game and your pitching staff allows 4.75 earned runs per game, that your team is going to be right around .500. Add in an Orioles defense that has been somewhat shaky, and you lose a few more games than you win.
So, what are the Orioles to do?
It feels fair to say that, at this point in the season, the Orioles have exhausted their pitching solutions. Eflin will be back soon, Rodriguez is expected to return in September, and all signs are positive on reliever Danny Coulombe coming back before the playoffs as well. But those improvements really just return the team to a baseline of competence. There is enough talent to dominate the occasional game from the mound when Corbin Burnes twirls a gem and you get the right roll of the dice out of the bullpen. But it’s certainly not something to count on.
The story is different on offense. There have been injuries as well, most notably Jordan Westburg’s fractured hand, which will keep him out until late in September at least. But in general, the Orioles have been lucky. The big guns have been available throughout the summer.
The change from mid-June on has been just a slight ratchet down in terms of overall output from a few key roles. Swapping out Westburg for Ramón Urías is a downgrade (although not as dramatic as many feared). Gunnar Henderson has gone from a top MVP candidate to simply excellent. The duo of Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn has been sapped of its power, combining for only five home runs. And Adley Rutschman has really struggled at the plate.
Rutschman owns a .217/.314/.345 batting line since June 13. That’s a wRC+ of 89, well below league average but about what you would expect from a catcher. Of course, more is expected from Rutschman. He is widely considered the league’s top backstop, and the Orioles offense is constructed as such. Such a dramatic dip in performance has hurt.
Another element of the offense that’s worth examining is a change in base-running aggression. Through June 12, the Orioles had 48 steals, 12th in MLB. Since then, they have stolen just 30 bags, 25th in MLB.
That is one area where the Jorge Mateo injury in late July has made an impact. Brandon Hyde was able to use Mateo selectively, oftentimes as a pinch runner. That put immediate pressure on an opposing pitcher. But Mateo is not considered a good baserunner simply because he can steal bags. He is also excellent at taking extra bases at all times, whether that is stretching a single into a double, going from first to third on a single, and taking calculated risks. Despite missing nearly a month of the season, Mateo is still among the league leaders in most base-running metrics on Baseball Savant.
Losing Mateo took away an element of the Orioles offense that no one else on the roster can replicate. Cedric Mullins is speedy and smart on the bases, but he doesn’t have the same top gear as Mateo. Henderson excels on the bases as well, but he starts every game and therefore lacks the availability off the bench that can be useful in all situations. The Orioles have to be praying that Mateo can get right in time for October, but the updates there have not been particularly promsing.
Regardless, the bats are where the Orioles will need to lean in order to reach their lofty postseason expectations. Thankfully, there is some reason to be optimistic.
First, the group, as constructed, is quite good. Henderson, although not at the peak of his powers, is still a constant force. Mullins (139 wRC+) and Colton Cowser (122 wRC+) have been two of the rare hitters to perform better the last two months than prior. Anthony Santander can homer at any moment. And you have to imagine that Rutschman eventually busts out of his extended slump.
Plus, there are players not currently on the active roster that could help. That includes the injured Westburg and Mateo, both of whom could return before October. Plus, Heston Kjerstad is still working his way back from a concussion. Those can obviously be delicate, so nothing is guaranteed, but the Orioles sound optimistic there. And finally, there’s Coby Mayo. The rookie struggled during his initial taste of the big leagues, but it is possible he catches fire again before Norfolk’s season ends to earn his way back to Baltimore.
Most importantly, you don’t have to do much squinting to picture these Orioles doing well at the plate. They have done it already for large swaths of this season, and the core of the lineup has stuck around all summer long. They just have to get hot at the same time.
If the Orioles’ pitching can simply be competent across the board, that’s a win. But it won’’t be enough to make the World Series run that the organization hopes for. Their only path to a championship will include the team’s offense going absolutely crazy in October. They are capable of doing so, but it is a lot to ask.