As the Orioles go into the 2025 season without last year’s ace pitcher, Corbin Burnes, they are hoping that right-hander Zach Eflin can match his performance over the last two seasons.
If he can, the O’s might have an ace-light or a pitcher who is a solid No. 2.
Eflin’s stats are close to what Burnes produced over the combined 2023-2024 seasons. When it comes to fWAR, Eflin is ranked above Burnes for that two-year span.
In fWAR among qualifying pitchers since 2023, Zack Wheeler leads all at 11.4 followed by Logan Webb at 9.3 and Sonny Gray at 9.2.
Eflin ranks 10th on that list at 7.7, just ahead of Kansas City’s Seth Lugo at 7.6. Then comes Burnes and Seattle’s Logan Gilbert at 7.2. Eflin is keeping good company.
Burnes signed for $210 million with Arizona, and Gilbert was sixth last season for the AL Cy Young Award. Aaron Nola, who signed with the Phillies for $172 million in November of 2023, is further back at 7.0.
Eflin, who was sixth in voting for the 2023 Cy Young Award with Tampa Bay, has produced similar stats to Burnes over the two-year stretch beginning in 2023.
Over 59 starts and 343 innings, Eflin is 26-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. He walked 1.3 per nine innings and struck out 8.4.
Burnes, over 64 starts throwing 388 innings, went 25-17 those years with a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. He walked 2.6 with 8.8 strikeouts per nine.
While Burnes posted an ERA+ of 128, Eflin was at 115. Eflin ranked 13th among MLB qualifying pitchers in that span in ERA and was sixth in WHIP. Burnes was third in ERA and fifth in WHIP.
This is the opposite of a small sample, and Eflin rivals Burnes. And per fWAR, exceeds him for this stretch.
Eflin’s nine O’s starts after the trade last July were solid. He went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA, and the Orioles were 7-2 in those games. He pitched just four innings in a playoff start against Kansas City but allowed just one run.
After throwing 177 2/3 innings and 165 1/3 those two seasons, the O’s would love to see Eflin get there again and maybe approach 200 innings to be a real workhorse for this staff.
If his stats and production equal what he did two years ago and last season at age 30, the O’s will have their ace-light. .