Cade Povich has pitched like a rookie capable of holding down the fifth spot in the rotation. Will that be enough for the Orioles?
Baseball holds an unmatched reputation for unpredictability. On any given night, spectators may see something that has never happened in the sport. At the same time, anticipated results occur on a daily basis.
Nobody should be surprised that the Orioles finally struggled during an absolutely brutal stretch in the month of June. With their only day off in the rearview mirror, Baltimore stumbled against some of the better teams in the American League.
The same logic can be applied to the club’s pitching staff. Injuries have taken a toll with Kyle Bradish, John Means, Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer on the injured list. That’s a playoff-caliber rotation that the Orioles have sitting on the shelf.
Albert Súarez did surprise with a string of several impressive starts, but a regression to the mean wouldn’t catch anybody off guard. Corbin Burnes has been his ace-like self, and Grayson Rodriguez has pitched to his potential. Things have mostly gone as expected, which makes this next point even more vanilla.
Cade Povich has pitched like a rookie capable of holding down the fifth spot in the rotation.
While it’s a completely reasonable result, production from a rookie should never be taken for granted. The concept of a 24-year old “meeting expectations” after joining a pennant race should be celebrated.
Povich made a few too many mistakes while flashing potential in his MLB debut at Toronto. He responded with six shutout innings in his home debut against the Braves, and he minimized the damage during a wild game in New York.
The Yankees game encompasses a stereotypical outing for a guy like Povich. It’s completely reasonable for a rookie to dance around superstars like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton. Povich walked five batters, but his raw talent helped hold the Yankees to only one run over 4.2 innings.
Povich met expectations again his last time out against the Guardians. The lefty held the league’s leader in win percentage to three runs over 5.2 innings. He was a poorly-placed ground ball away from a Quality Start, and he provided his team a chance to win.
The Orioles will work to develop Povich throughout this season and the remainder of his career, but it’s unrealistic to expect much more in 2024. Barring another surprise, what does this mean for Baltimore?
With Kremer set to return next week, the Orioles appear covered in the short term. Baltimore can slide Súarez to the bullpen while continuing to monitor Cole Irvin’s performance. Three scheduled off days and the All-Star break in July should prevent the need for a six-man rotation, so Baltimore can simply roll with its five best options.
Povich’s modest success could push back the arrival of Chayce McDermott. McDermott actually ranks one spot ahead of Povich in MLB Pipelines Top 30 Orioles Prospects, but it’s difficult to picture McDermott immediately performing at a higher level than Povich.
The Orioles have been hesitant to roster several rookie position players simultaneously, and Povich now holds more experience over the 25-year-old prospect. It may not seem fair to McDermott, but he can take it up with Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers and the rest of Norfolk’s roster.
Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde know there will be some bumps along the way, but they do not know when those bumps will come. Rookies often pitch better at home, and Povich has fit that mold through four starts, but there’s no perfect template. Can the Orioles stomach that level of uncertainty in a heated AL East race?
The most likely outcome involves at least one deal for starting pitching at the trade deadline. Whether the team feels pressure to deal before July 30 likely depends on Kremer’s health and its willingness to send out a rookie every fifth day.
As any recent graduate looking for a job can tell you, you need an opportunity to gain experience. Povich cannot magically transform into a seasoned veteran capable of leading the team into October. June feels like a better time than September for that to happen.
Súarez, Irvin and Povich all seem to have a month to prove they belong in the rotation for the second half. Their performance should impact—but not solely determine—the level of moves required at the deadline.