Cade Povich’s Orioles debut comes with question marks, but only one is about him

Suddenly, the health of the O’s rotation feels in doubt—but as long as Povich can keep the walks down, he should be a fine stand-in.

The Orioles did a rare thing yesterday: call up a pitching prospect. It wasn’t totally unexpected, but then on Wednesday night they added a second announcement: Cade Povich, 24, will make his MLB debut as a starter tomorrow. Yes, yes, we all love MLB debuts, but one big question about this one: why now?

In a generic sense, the answer is: pitching injuries. John Means (Tommy John surgery) and Tyler Wells (upcoming UCL surgery) are out for the season, and Dean Kremer is still rehabbing a triceps injury. The Orioles have adapted gracefully to these developments, sliding Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez out of and back into the rotation (the latter performed admirably there last night, despite an eventual loss).

Now the more targeted, unpleasant question is how Kyle Bradish’s arm is feeling. The right hander’s last start, a five-run 2 2/3-inning performance against Tampa Bay, didn’t leave you with a wholly warm and fuzzy feeling. And while the O’s haven’t announced anything, pushing back his scheduled start date for a prospect’s MLB debut seems ominous.

For what it’s worth, manager Brandon Hyde played down the decision, talking about a grueling “40-plus” day stretch with a single day off. “We’re going to try to give guys days when we can.” Maybe it’s that. Bradish’s name isn’t popping up on the IL just yet.

But it casts a sort of pall on the 24-year-old Povich’s debut. Let’s hope that the left hander can silence the doubters with a strong first outing, and a bunch more after that.

Let’s turn to another question: who is Cade Povich, and what does he bring to the table—er, mound?

Acquired from the Twins in the Jorge López trade in August 2022, Povich has really only had one full season in the Orioles farm system. It was good, not wow—at least, going by ERA (5.04). Inconsistency has plagued Povich, according to MLB Pipeline. On some occasions, he’ll strike out nine; other days he’ll allow five runs. His other problem is walks: last season, he allowed 5.76 a game (!!).

For what it’s worth, though, Povich admits that he struggled when he got to Triple-A last season, but he “figured it out” in September. This season, he’s cut down the walks to 3.57 a game—still not amazing, but a vast improvement. And above all, what Povich has that excites this team is an ability to draw swings and misses: he’s averaging better than eleven-and-a-half strikeouts per game in his last three seasons since entering the Orioles minor league system.

Hence, in 11 starts for Triple-A Norfolk this season, Povich has a 3.18 ERA, racking up 75 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings with a .203 opposing average. This followed a good spring, where he posted a 1.29 ERA in three starts totaling seven innings and striking out nine.

Let’s talk about the lefty’s stuff. Povich’s MLB Pipeline scouting report praises his “four distinct pitches,” giving his Fastball a 50, his Curveball: 45, Slider: 50, his Changeup: 55, and his Control: 40. The report praises his “high-spin” heater for its ability to get whiffs despite average velocity, a “big, sweeping slider,” curveball and “changeup with depth.” When he’s commanding all his pitches, “he’s one of the best pitching prospects in the system.”

That sounds good. So. . . will he command them? Apparently it was struggles with the changeup, in particular, that helped explain his ’23 spike in walks at Triple-A, and apparently, when he does struggle with the pitch, batters can sit on his fastball and hard contact ensues. MLB Pipeline’s Sam Dykstra isn’t totally convinced, claiming that the Povich changeup has taken “more of a backseat in Povich’s current arsenal.”

Here are a few clips of Povich throwing a lot of nasty breaking stuff. The slim lefty is not overpowering, but his delivery looks like it’d be extremely hard to pick him up.

Anyway, tonight will be a fascinating test of what the Orioles have in this southpaw prospect. Manager Brandon Hyde reports, “He threw the ball great for us in spring. I thought it was huge strides from the year before.”

The Orioles started him off in Triple-A this year with a mission to minimize walks and get hitters out early in the count. Povich has done that. Now it’s time to see if the stuff plays. The Orioles are headed into a grueling stretch, with the Yankees looking like a juggernaut in the AL East, and starting pitching at a premium. If Povich performs, he’ll slot into a rotation that features ace Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Albert Suárez and lefty Cole Irvin. We’ll see what happens with Bradish. “We’re really kind of open right now,” says Hyde. This presents a major opportunity.