We asked 21 questions before the season started. 10 have been answered and others are close.
The All-Star break has arrived, so it’s a good time to check in on our pre-season contest questions. The friendly competition is posted every spring to give us a chance to express our general feelings towards the upcoming season.
For those who participated, now is a chance to see how you measure up with the competition. But even if you didn’t, I think taking a look at how things are going can provide a pretty good status check of how things are going for the team as a whole.
You can check your score and answers on the spreadsheet and review the full questions below.
The contest is divided into multiple categories. They are: which will be higher, over/under, yes/no, and multiple choice. To date, 10 of them have been answered
- Which will be higher – Tyler Wells GS or Cole Irvin GS? Answer: Irvin GS. The questions in this section are usually not answered until close to the end of the season, but Tyler Wells’s season-ending injury made this one an easy answer. Wells ended his season with three games started while Irvin is at 14.
- Over/Under – Orioles All-Stars: 2.5. Answer: Over – 5. Taking the over on 2.5 probably seemed a no-brainer after the Orioles had four All-Stars last year, and it turns out it was indeed. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Jordan Westburg, and Corbin Burnes represented your favorite baseball team in Tuesday’s festivities.
- Over/Under – John Means Innings Pitched: 99.5. Answer: Under. Is this the saddest question in the entire contest? Probably. Means threw 20.2 innings over four starts before going back on the injured list for his second Tommy John surgery in three years.
- Who will be the first Oriole to hit a home run? Answer: Anthony Santander. Santander answered this one quickly with his fourth-inning dinger on Opening Day. He currently has 24 home runs, second only to Gunnar Henderson on the team. Henderson was the most frequently picked answer for this question.
- Who will be the first Oriole to steal a base? Answer: Jorge Mateo. Of course Mateo was the answer! He stole his first base on Opening Day after taking a walk. Cedric Mullins was most frequently picked, which is fair. He currently leads the team with 16.
- Who will be the first team to sweep the Orioles? Answer: St. Louis Cardinals. After going the entire 2023 regular season without getting swept, an outlandish 34% of you predicted the same for this year. Of course they got swept! That it was by the Cardinals was more surprising. They are now a second-place team but at the time were six games under .500 and in fourth in their division.
- Who will be the first team the Orioles sweep? Answer: Boston Red Sox. The Orioles only made us wait until the second week in April to see a sweep. That it was of a division rival was even better. The Red Sox are trying to make a go of it as we start the second half so those wins could end up being very important.
- Who will be the first Orioles starter to get a win? Answer: Corbin Burnes. Our All-Star kicked off his Orioles era in grand fashion, striking out 11 Angels on Opening Day. The only batter to reach base against him was Mike Trout, who hit a solo homer.
- Will Kyle Bradish make a start before Memorial Day? Answer: Yes. When Bradish returned from the IL to pitch on May 2nd, it seemed like the Orioles got lucky. Of course, they did not get lucky. Bradish made his final start of 2024 just six weeks later when, like Means, he found out he needed Tommy John.
- Will Jackson Holliday make the Opening Day roster? Answer: No. People were angry about this one but it turns out it was the right decision. Hope we see Holliday back with the big league team soon.
There are 21 other questions in the contest that have yet to be decided, although some
Which will be higher?
Close calls
- Adley Rutschman OPS*1000 or Orioles runs scored? Adley – 780, RS – 474 (Pace: 799). I believe strongly that Rutschman will rebound to have an OPS higher than .780. Three weeks ago before his late-June swoon (that has gone into July), he was OPS’ing in the .830s. Somewhere in the middle of those seems right for him, close to .800.
- Orioles batters with 20+ HR or pitchers with ERA under 3.50 (min 40 IP)? Right now there are two Orioles with 20+ homers, Henderson and Santander. Rutschman, Westburg, Mountcastle, and Cowser are all on pace to hit at least 20. I think two of them will get there. Three pitchers meet the current criteria: Burnes, Jacob Webb, and Albert Suarez. Yennier Cano and Craig Kimbrel meet the ERA threshold but fall a few IP short at the moment.
- HR by Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Santander? Gunnar – 28, Tony – 24. My money is on Gunnar, but if Santander can put another June-like month he could make a run.
- Grayson Rodriguez K’s or games played by Ryan O’Hearn plus Ramón Urías? O+U – 134, Gray K – 112. Will Urías continue to get playing time in the second half? Your guess is as good as mine, I sort of can’t believe he played in 68 games in the first half.
- Corbin Burnes K% or Adley Rutschman CS%? Burnes – 23.3%, Adley – 22.7%. Adley is just about league-average at throwing guys out. Burnes is at his lowest K% since his rookie year, but his walks are also down so that helps. Here’s hoping these numbers go up for both players.
Not so close
- Corbin Burnes bWAR or Joey Ortiz + DL Hall bWAR? Burnes: 2.9, Ortiz + Hall: 1.8 (2.1 – 0.4) For much of the season, Burnes and Ortiz were neck and neck on bWAR but Burnes put some space between them with his continued solid play. Ortiz is having a great year but has been slumping over the last four week or so. And poor DL Hall has been on the IL since late April.
- Games started in the outfield: Heston Kjerstad or Colton Cowser? Cowser – 70, Kjerstad – 10. Cowser hit the ground running this season and, despite cooling off significantly, has shown the defensive prowess to make him worthy of becoming almost a regular starter. After spending time in the minors, Kjerstad was looking good before being hit in the head by Clay Holmes on Friday. He’s currently on the concussion IL. Get well soon, Heston!
- Saves by Craig Kimbrel or SB by Jorge Mateo? Kimbrel – 23, Mateo – 13. Kimbrel is second in the AL in saves and Mateo just hasn’t been on base enough to build up his stats.
- Dean Kremer ERA+ or Jordan Westburg OPS+? Westburg – 133, Kremer – 86. These gentlemen were both league-average last year, but Westburg has pulled ahead while Kremer has regressed. It will be very good for the Orioles if Kremer can pull that number up to make this a contest.
Over/Under
- O/U Orioles wins: 92.5 (Pace: 98) 92 wins would feel like a real letdown after the first half.
- Longest win streak: 6.5 (Current longest: 6) They have also lost five in a row.
- Camden Yards season attendance: 2.2 million (Pace: 2,264,608) – The Orioles have a total attendance of 1,453,823, which is just over 300K more than at the same point last year. That’s good! They need to average 25,730 over their final 29 home games. They are currently averaging 27,958.
Yes/No – no answers yet. What are your predictions?
- Will the Orioles sign a player to a contract extension before the end of the season?
- Will an Oriole have a 20/20 season (HR/SB)? Closest – Gunnar (28/14)
- Will the Orioles trade for a starting pitcher before the trade deadline? Please do this.
- Will the Orioles win a postseason series?
Multiple Choice
- Which of these pitchers will have the most innings pitched with the Orioles? Seth Johnson (0), Cade Povich (33), Chayce McDermott (0). It seems in the bag for Povich but I guess you never know! People are clamoring for McDermott to be seen.
- Which of these players will hit the most home runs at Camden Yards? Austin Hays (0), Cedric Mullins (7), Ryan Mountcastle (7). This list is kind of sad. I predict Mounty will be the winner on this one.
- Which of these players will have the second-most saves for the Orioles? Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Cionel Perez, Dillon Tate, Someone else. The current leader is Cano with 3, but he could easily be overtaken. Others: Webb 2, Perez 1, Tate 1, Coulombe 1
- Which of these players will have the highest minor league OPS? (minimum 200 PA) Samuel Basallo (.787), Heston Kjerstad (.998), Coby Mayo (1.030), Colton Cowser (N/A). We want Cody!
- Which of the following pitchers will have the most wins? Grayson (11), Irvin (6), Kremer (4), Bradish (2), Means (2), Wells (0). This is Grayson’s to lose as his closest competitor is in the bullpen.
So how are you doing so far? And how do you think the Orioles are doing? Stay tuned for additional answers throughout the rest of the season.