The Orioles possess a surplus of position players and limited pitching depth. Would they deal from an already thin group of arms?
The trade deadline always brings drama, but Baltimore’s current situation has taken things to a new level. The Orioles are legitimate World Series contenders with a blatantly obvious need on the mound. Rotation injuries have forced Mike Elias into a scenario where he must act, but the GM has a responsibility to do what is best for the organization in 2024 and beyond.
The organization has boasted the top farm system in baseball over the last few years. They have the pieces to make almost any move, but it’s unclear if/when top prospects like Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo or even Jackson Holliday could become available.
Even if the Birds make a splashy move for someone like Tarik Skubal, the goal will be to part with the least amount of talent as possible. At least one “top-tier” prospect would likely be included, but the O’s would do their best to supplement their offer with depth from the system.
Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, or even Ramón Urías could provide value to the right team, but prospects move the needle. Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers look ready to contribute at the major league level, while players like Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers could be difference makers in the future.
The Orioles rebuilt their system by drafting position players and trading for pitchers like Kyle Bradish and Yennier Cano. Now, with the Orioles firmly established as buyers, can they afford to part with anyone from their limited pitching bunch?
Baltimore promoted Cade Povich after a series of injuries on the mound, and the 24-year-old now represents the backend starter with the most upside for this season. Povich will continue to refine his control and ability to put hitters away, but he’s already capable of delivering five innings of decent ball on any given night. It’s difficult to see Povich going anywhere at the end of this month.
Chayce McDermott entered the season ranked one spot ahead of Povich on MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 Orioles prospects. McDermott will make his MLB debut tonight after tossing over 140 innings at Triple-A over the last two seasons. McDermott’s debut promotes the rookie from an emergency plan to a player of the moment. Suddenly, it feels like there is room for McDermott and Povich in the rotation with Albert Suárez continuing to struggle.
The Orioles acquired McDermott and Seth Johnson in a three-team deal that sent fan-favorite Trey Mancini to Houston. Baltimore stashed Johnson on its 40-man roster while the high-ceiling prospect rehabbed from Tommy John surgery.
Johnson made one start for Bowie last season before rejoining the Baysox in 2024. The 25-year-old holds a 2.66 ERA over 61 IP this season, and he appears ready to prove it at Triple-A. It’s difficult to see Johnson joining the Orioles at any point this season, but would Baltimore really give him up after its long-term investment?
Johnson seems to mark the starting point of pitchers that could be dealt without impacting a World Series run. However, Johnson should contribute as early as next season.
Pitchers like Luis De León and Jackson Baumeister represent the next generation of pitching prospects. Brandon Young has received plenty of buzz this season after reaching Triple-A last month. Trace Bright and Michael Forret still hold some value, and several Rule-5 eligible pitchers could be used as a potential sweetener.
Baltimore may be more willing to part with pitching prospects if they receive a player with multiple years of team control. The Orioles already know they will be without Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells at the beginning of 2025, and Corbin Burnes will likely wear a different uniform next season.
The new ownership group represents a genuine wild card in this process. Elias should be more willing to deal from the arsenal if he knows he can supplement in free agency moving forward. However, even with the payroll set to grow, the Orioles have several position players worthy of high-dollar extensions if their agents play ball.
Injuries thinned out the major league rotation, but the Orioles lack pitching in the minors due to their draft approach. Baltimore’s bunch of offensive prospects is unmatched, but the team had to relinquish DL Hall to acquire Burnes. Now, in a sellers market, can the Orioles afford to relinquish any pitching prospects?