He’s starting to cut down on ground balls, and the results are coming around nicely.
It’s been a dreary 2024 for Orioles outfielders at the plate. The outfield has been an offensive swamp for this team: the 24-year-old Colton Cowser is hitting just .229, Anthony Santander has found his power but is hitting just .227, and Austin Hays is hitting .241 with just two homers.
The biggest culprit, by far, though, has been Cedric Mullins. The onetime All-Star/30-30 man has consistently been the worst hitter in the lineup, with a .193 average and just 23 RBI in 219 plate appearances. There’s an astonishing gap of 100 OPS points between Mullins and the O’s next-worst in Hays.
Brandon Hyde has been commenting on how he’s pulling for his centerfielder during this prolonged slump. But a few websites are openly speculating on Mullins’ being on the way out, others calling for the Orioles to shore up some offensive help in the outfield.
Fortunately, just as it seemed it couldn’t get any worse for Mullins, it’s getting better. Over his last week, Mullins has hit .333 with a .400 OBP and an .844 OPS.
Last night, Mullins was a big reason the Orioles pulled off a tenth-inning 7-6 win over the Yankees, too. The Orioles had outlasted 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole to mount a 5-1 lead against the bullpen but then blown it, sending the game to extra innings tied 5-5. Come the top of the tenth, Mullins drilled a single to score the ghost runner. But he wasn’t done. From second base, he took off for third, drawing a distracted throw from the catcher, and managed to speed home. Without that seventh run, the game might have continued on into the night, given that Dillon Tate would be effectively wild in the bottom half.
That is what Cedric Mullins brings, when he’s on. Speed, power, and situational awareness.
How is this happening? A high BAbip of .353, first of all, so we can manage our expectations. But there’s more tangible factors, too.
One that it isn’t: the quality of pitchers faced. Since he’s gotten hot, Mullins has hit against Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, Spencer Swellenbach, Reynaldo López, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler, Nestor Cortes and Gerrit Cole. Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Philadelphia and New York—these aren’t punching bags, even with the Rays struggling.
Good quality of contact? Yes, and this is important. Generally, ground balls are much less likely than fly balls and line drives to turn into hits, especially if they’re not hard hit. Over the last ten games, Mullins has substituted ground balls for line drives, while increasing his hard-hit percentage. Observe the light blue line below.
In the same time, Mullins has improved his approach. He’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%), and also fewer pitches in general (Z-Swing%). Relatedly, his walks are increasing and his strikeouts dropping dramatically.
For what it’s worth, too, Mullins’s defense has been good enough to merit his playing time, good enough to make him a positive-WAR player despite all the offensive struggles (+0.3 WAR). For instance, BaseballSavant gives his a +3 Outs Above Average, which places him in the 87th percentile of fielders.
Obviously, one week does not a turnaround make. But it’s a hell of a lot better than continuing to be stuck in a slump! A Mullins revival would be a huge thing for the Orioles, because as consistent as the lineup has been, there’s a huge dropoff in the No. 9 slot. And while the pitching situation stabilizes, a little more run creation from the bottom of the order wouldn’t hurt, either.