He’s fast. He plays great defense. He’s been around a long time. Can Cedric Mullins continue as a productive part of the lineup?
Cedric Mullins debuted with the Baltimore Orioles on August 10, 2018, which makes him the only member of the 2025 roster to appear on that miserable 115-loss team. When the Orioles turned things around, he was touted along with Austin Hays and Anthony Santander as the outfielders who made it through the tough times together. Now he is the only one who remains.
Since his breakout season in 2021, Mullins has put together three pretty similar seasons, overall. An OBP just north of .300, home run numbers in the mid-teens, above-average defense, and a lot of speed on the basepaths. He batted mostly near the bottom of the lineup.
There are plenty of reasons to believe that Mullins will have a similar year in 2025, or maybe a little worse. Like I said, he’s been pretty consistent over the past three seasons. He finally reached the age of 30 last October, which means historically speaking he’s on the down side of his career.
But is there any reason to think he could be better in 2025 than last year? Well, maybe. It has to do with the way he ended last season. Mullins has always tended to be a streaky player, but last year was the extreme version of that. In the first half of the season he looked like toast, to put it nicely. He had an OBP of just .256 and an OPS of .629, which was good for an OPS+ of 76. Just putrid. He managed just 14 walks in 87 games.
Then, in the second half, he came to life. He looked like a completely different player. The team as a whole struggled in the second half, but Mullins was the team’s best hitter. Over the final 60 games of the season, Mullins hit .266/.374/.457.
Just for fun, he was also the team’s best hitter in their pathetic Wild Card series. He socked a single, a double, and a home run over the two games. I was at game two of that series and his home run was the only moment of joy in the entire game.
If Mullins can replicate, or come close to replicating his second-half performance, he’ll be on track to have his best season in years. Of course that is a tall, and maybe impossible, order.
One thing that will help him find success is if he is limited to facing mostly right-handed pitchers. He has always struggled against lefties and last year was worse than usual. His wRC+ against lefties in 2024 was just 43. The league average is 100. That’s very bad. But manager Brandon Hyde is no dummy, and he managed Mullins like a guy who shouldn’t see lefties very often. Mullins had just 97 at-bats against lefties last year, his lowest number since the shortened 2020 season.
There can be an argument that the defense Mullins provides is worth having him out there even with those terrible numbers against lefties. But that is an argument for a guy whose wRC+ is 75, not 43. Colton Cowser also hits lefties worse than righties but was much better against them than Mullins.
I really like Cedric Mullins and I want him to have a huge year. But there are a lot of things that need to go right. He needs to stave off the age curve, avoid prolonged slumps, improve his numbers against lefties (or forgo facing them altogether), and keep himself healthy. Does the ZiPS projection system believe he can do just that? Let’s see:
ZiPS Projection: 138 G, 23 2B, 16 HR, 26 SB, .240/.308/.401, 2.8 WAR
Honestly, that’s not bad! It’s very in line with his last three seasons when his numbers were:
Mullins is known as a base stealer, so let’s focus on that for our cases of over and under. ZiPS has him pegged six fewer stolen bases than he had last year, though it also has him playing in fewer games.
The case for the over
Mullins has stolen at least 30 bases in three of the last four seasons. The year he didn’t he missed time with injuries throughout the year. If Mullins can stay healthy and get on base at least as much as he did last year, he should clear 26 stolen bases easily. It would be unusual if he didn’t. Statcast measured him last year to still have excellent sprint speed and baserunning skills, and anyone who has watched him knows he thrives on the bases.
The case for the under
Just like the rest of us, Cedric Mullins isn’t getting any younger. Speed is a skill that diminishes with age. Mullins has proven himself to be a player who gets on base just a bit over 30% of the time, which is the bare minimum acceptable level. If he is unable to sustain that he won’t have as many chances to steal bases in the first place. And if he starts to lose playing time due to performance, that’s another blow to his chances. And that doesn’t even take into account any possible injuries.