The Orioles centerfield is hugely important to this team’s outlook. But his current production isn’t something they can wave away.
Coming into the season, there was an argument to be made for Cedric Mullins as one MLB’s top center fielders. He had three straight seasons of above-average offense (137 OPS+ in 2021, 107 OPS+ in ‘22, and 101 OPS+ in ‘23), and although he did not have a Gold Glove was still widely regarded as a player with elite range on defense. At the very least, Mullins was a well-rounded player that could hold his own in all facets of the game and was an asset on the Orioles’ roster.
That remained true through this season’s first month. At the end of April, Mullins owned a .219/.274/.427 batting line with six home runs and six stolen bases. The average and on base weren’t great, but he made up for it with the power and speed. Plus, his range in center still appeared to be top tier.
But things have really fallen apart since the start of May. In his last 29 games, Mullins is 11-for-84 with four walks, 27 strikeouts, zero home runs, one double, and two triples. That’s a batting line of .131/.171/.191. The lone saving grace is that he has gone 7-for-7 on stolen base attempts. Everything else is grim.
It seems the Orioles have been trying to give Mullins some space to get right. In the latter half of May he was used in more of a reserve role, often coming in late as a pinch runner or defensive replacement, and rarely finishing games that he did start. That trend has continued into June, where he has played in six of the team’s nine games, but completed nine innings just four times.
His position in the lineup has also been lowered. In April it was common to see Mullins hit fifth or sixth in the order, a prime spot to drive in runs. But now, when he is in the order, it is in the lower third. Over this past weekend Mullins never hit above eighth.
Perhaps something was unlocked on Sunday as Mullins went 2-for-4 with a triple. That broke what had been an 0-for-22 run that included seven strikeouts and two walks.
Meanwhile, the veteran outfielders around Mullins have come alive. Austin Hays is 7-for-17 over his last seven games, which has included his first two home runs of the season, and Anthony Santander has five home runs in his last 12 games. And yet, Mullins remains in his season-long funk.
So, what’s the deal with Mullins?
Some of it is a continuation from 2023. Last season he posted what had been the highest average launch angle of his career (21.6 degrees). And he paired that with added strength, evidence by his improved exit velocities. He averaged 88.9 mph off the bat, the second-highest mark of his career, and maxed out at 110.5 mph, the hardest he had ever hit a ball in his career. So far this season his average exit velocity is down to 88.3 mph, which would be his lowest in a season since 2019, and he has maxed out at 106.4 mph, which would be his lowest max ever.
Despite the diminished power, his approach hasn’t changed. His launch angle this season has actually increased to 21.9 degrees. That was working fine in April, but not so much anymore. And it’s no wonder why. Balls in the air plus lowered exit velocities equal fly outs rather than home runs.
It’s easy to say “hit more hard line drives.” Actually doing it is quite another thing. And the reality could be that Mullins isn’t capable of doing much more than he is at the moment. Many of his physical skills do indicate decline. We have already mentioned his lowered exit velocities. His foot speed is also at the lowest of his career, down to 27.9 feet per second. His career high came back in 2018, when he scooted at 29.3 feet per second. There’s even his much maligned arm strength. Mullins is averaging 84.8 mph on his throws this season, his lowest since 2021.
Thinking that Mullins is past his prime as a 29-year-old is reasonable. Most players peak in their mid-20s at this point, and Mullins had one heck of a season back in 2021 when he hit 30 home runs and swiped 30 bases as a 26-year-old. That version of him was never likely to return, and now we can more confidently say that is the reality. However, it is premature to think that Mullins can never bounce back to the type of player he was even a season ago.
But what isn’t working is sending him out night after night to get dominated by opposing pitchers, even if his defense continues to be steady as always. No matter how good his glove is, Mullins cannot be a zero on offense, and that’s exactly what the Orioles are getting right now.
The Orioles are fortunate to have Colton Cowser already in the big leagues and capable of playing center field at a high level. Advanced metrics like Cowser’s glove quite a bit. He has one of the best arms in the league and has been worth seven outs above average, a portion of which have come in center. Now, Cowser isn’t exactly setting the world on fire at the plate recently either. But he does manage to hit balls hard and take a walk on occasion, two reasons to believe that a bounce-back is coming. Mullins, at the moment, isn’t offering that sort of upside.
And, while it may seem odd at this point in his career, it is relevant to say that Mullins has minor league options remaining. If the Orioles see fit, they can send him to Triple-A Norfolk to work on things in a low pressure environment without losing anyone.
Or, if that doesn’t sit right, a brief IL stint could make sense. Give Mullins some time to sit, relieve the pressure, and then take a rehab assignment to ease back into things. It’s a long season, and just like the Orioles have taken precautions with some of their pitchers, it could make sense to give one of your veteran position players a breather as well, especially one that has dealt with several leg issues over the last year.
The fact is that Mullins isn’t playing well enough right now. His glove alone is not good enough to give him three or four at-bats a night over someone else in the organization. That doesn’t mean it’s time to move on, but it could be an opportunity to try something different and provide Mullins with an avenue to getting himself sorted out and help these Orioles reach their potential.