Lots of baseball left before the Orioles might get a second straight Rookie of the Year award winner
Before the 2024 season started, the Orioles player who was seen as the most likely Rookie of the Year candidate was Jackson Holliday. A month into the season, with Holliday having been called up, played ten games, and sent back down, he’s not looking like he’ll be the one to make it two years in a row for Orioles ROY contenders. At least for now, there is another, with Colton “The Milkman” Cowser dazzling in the season’s early weeks to lead all AL rookies in Fangraphs WAR to date.
For the draft pick obsessives out there, Cowser meets the criteria that would grant the Orioles a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick at the end of the first round next year, same as the team is getting in this year’s draft due to Gunnar Henderson winning ROY a year ago. Cowser was a top 100 player in the three relevant prospect lists that qualify a player, the Orioles had him on the Opening Day roster, and provided he stays up long enough for a full year of service time, he would count for the incentive. All that’s left after that is winning. Nothing to it, right?
Up to this point in the 2024 season, there are three AL rookies (or possibly just two, see note below), including Cowser, who have reached at least 1 fWAR. If you’re wondering “Why fWAR?” it’s because FanGraphs is the website where you can easily view rookie-only leaderboards.
Colton Cowser
- fWAR / bWAR through 5/2: 1.3 / 1.0
- Batting stats through 5/2: .277/.351/.578, 6 HR, 3 SB
One thing to keep in mind about WAR is that it’s not a counting stat. If you stink for a while, it goes down, and it won’t go back up until the player starts playing well again. As exciting as Cowser was over the first few weeks of the season, he’s tailed off just as hard since then, hitting just .132 over the last 14 days while striking out in 40% of his plate appearances. This has come along with some defensive miscues, including yesterday’s game when he couldn’t make a competitive throw home from shallow left field.
Cowser was not one of the players who got a lot of Rookie of the Year candidate attention before the season began. One path to winning is being one of the players who’s in that conversation and then go on to have a great season.
That’s what Henderson did a year ago, Julio Rodríguez did the year before that, and Randy Arozarena did three years ago. Cowser’s not a slouch, though, as a former top 5 pick, and he should get his due if he plays well to season’s end. Cowser is the current betting favorite for AL ROY. He was just named the Rookie of the Month for March/April.
Mason Miller
- fWAR / bWAR through 5/2: 1.1 / 0.9
- Pitching stats through 5/2: 1.26 ERA, -0.07 FIP (really!), 29 SO in 14.1 IP
Orioles fans just became acquainted with the 25-year-old Miller over last weekend’s series against the Athletics, with the fireballer pitching the tenth inning to close out Oakland’s victory on that occasion. It is something of a wonder that he has ever given up runs when he throws the fastball at up to 103mph and on average over 100mph.
In fact, Miller has only given up two runs all season and those were when he was brought in to a non-save situation in his first outing. The old “closer in a non-save situation” theory finds some more anecdotal support. When it comes to saving games, he’s flawless up to this point. He has entered eight games with a save situation on the line and has allowed exactly one hit and one walk during those games.
Note: There’s some disagreement over whether Miller counts as a rookie. The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that he counted exactly 45 days of active service time for Miller in 2023; one day more and you lose rookie eligibility for the following season. FG lists him as a rookie, but Baseball Reference says he exceeded the threshold. Perhaps the biggest tell is that you can’t bet Miller to win ROY on the sportsbooks.
Wilyer Abreu
- fWAR / bWAR through 5/2: 1.1 / 1.5
- Batting stats through 5/2: .313/.391/.513, 2 HR, 5 SB
The 24-year-old Abreu was originally signed by the Astros for $300,000 during the 2017-18 international signing period, and eventually traded to the Red Sox in a 2022 deadline deal that sent Christian Vásquez to Houston. Two years later, here he is having an early season breakout with Boston. These batting numbers are a continuation of what Abreu did with a September callup a year ago.
The guy is hitting, plain and simple. Will it last? Probably not, as Abreu has a BABIP of .404, which is nearly certain to drop as time goes along. His Statcast numbers show a gap of 136 points between his actual slugging percentage and his expected slugging percentage. The Red Sox are doing their best to hide the lefty Abreu from lefty pitchers. He’s taken just 15 PA against lefties for the season to date. That’s a help to Abreu’s overall performance.
Evan Carter / Wyatt Langford
This Texas Rangers duo entered the season with a lot of steam behind them for potential Rookie of the Year consideration. Carter got plenty of attention a year ago as he debuted with a September callup and hit five homers in 23 games while also showing a great batting eye. That helped get him on the Rangers postseason roster, where he performed capably on the way to Texas winning the title.
The 2024 regular season is proving to be tougher for Carter, as he’s batting just .222 through 29 games. With a .245 BABIP, his luck might be due to turn for the better, or perhaps as his Statcast page suggests, he’s just not hitting the ball as well this season. Still just 21 years old, Carter will be back among the favorites if he hits a hot streak.
Langford dashed to an Opening Day debut after being drafted by Texas with the #4 pick just a year ago. Yeah, the team that ended up winning the World Series picked #4 in that year’s draft. It’s been a slow start for the outfielder, as he’s slugging just .301. He’s not struggling so much to get himself demoted, yet, but for the time being he hasn’t played like he’ll be a ROY contender.
At this point, less than 20% of the season has been played. The good players will have to keep it up to stay on the leaderboards and the ones who’ve struggled so far have plenty of time to turn it around. If Cowser’s still looking like a contender after the calendar turns to June, I’ll be back then to check in on the AL rookie competition.