We all know the Orioles have struggled offensively for long stretches in the second half. But how does that weakness compare to the weaknesses of other AL contenders?
With the calendar flipping to September, postseason baseball is officially on the horizon. The Orioles are not the same front-runners they were in 2023 and they’re currently on pace to win eight fewer games this season. The good news for Baltimore is that no one in the American League is truly elite. There isn’t a single AL team on pace to win 95 games and all six teams currently in playoff positions are within five games of each other.
When there isn’t a clear favorite to take home the pennant, who finds success in October becomes more about minimizing weaknesses than highlighting teams’ strengths. With that in mind, let’s take a look at each AL contender’s biggest weakness and how likely it is that they can overcome that weakness come postseason play.
Baltimore Orioles: Banged up and worn down offense
For much of this season, the biggest source of consternation in Birdland has been the O’s pitching staff. However, with Zach Eflin back and at his best, Albert Suárez amid his best stretch as an Oriole and reinforcements on the horizon for both the rotation and the pen, pitching is now a secondary concern.
The state of the lineup is much less encouraging, though. Since the beginning of July, the Orioles rank 20th in both batting average and slugging percentage and are ahead of only Cleveland among AL contenders. Just as injuries have defined much of the Orioles’ season, injuries have also decimated the batting order in the second half. All-Star Jordan Westburg hasn’t played since July 31st, Jorge Mateo is done for the season with a dislocated elbow and fellow infielders Ramón Urías and Ryan Mountcastle are also on the IL with ankle and wrist injuries.
However, the injured stars aren’t the only weak spots. Adley Rutschman is currently in the most prolonged slump, hitting .182 with only nine extra-base hits over the last two months. Of the Orioles’ regular starters, only Colton Cowser and Gunnar Henderson are hitting over .250 since the All-Star break and only those two, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Jackson Holliday are slugging above .400.
The returns of Westburg, Urías and Mountcastle will undoubtedly boost a lineup currently relying on rookies Holliday and Coby Mayo and fringe players like Emmanuel Rivera. And yet, whether or not the O’s can make noise in the postseason will come down to whether the top of this lineup can break out of its collective slump. Common sense says that players as talented as Adley, Gunnar and Ryan O’Hearn won’t continue to hit under the Mendoza Line for an extended stretch. As long as they continue to do so, however, there will continue to be questions about if this team can win a playoff series.
Likelihood it derails their postseason: 2.5/5
New York Yankees: Pitching depth
If all you wanted was to win one postseason game, the Yankees are probably the AL’s best bet. Between the offensive star power of presumptive MVP Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, plus reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, New York is well positioned for any winner-take-all contest.
However, the depth in the rotation behind Cole, as well as the reliability of the bullpen, is a big question mark in the Bronx. Former All-Star Nestor Cortes has a 5.15 ERA in the second half and is coming off a start where he allowed five runs in four innings against the Cardinal. Carlos Rodón has been better, posting a 3.34 ERA in the second half, but is volatile and coming off a start vs. Washington where he allowed five runs over 5.2 innings. Veteran Marcus Stroman, the likely fourth starter in New York’s playoff rotation, has been disastrous in the second half once again, posting a 4.72 ERA and a .314 BAA against since the All-Star break.
Backing up the roller coaster rotation is a bullpen that has declined in the second half. Before the All-Star break, New York was second in the American League with a 3.46 ERA. Since the middle of July, that number has ballooned to 4.29, putting them ninth in the AL. Trade deadline acquisition Mark Leiter Jr. has had his fair share of struggles, posting a 6.08 ERA in 14 appearances. All-Star closer Clay Holmes has been one of the bright spots in the second half, but still leads the MLB with 10 blown saves (four since the break) and his .245 BAA is much higher than his fellow upper-echelon closers.
Likelihood it derails their postseason: 2.5/5
Cleveland Guardians: Disappearing offensive stars
The Orioles and the Guardians led the American League with four All-Star selections apiece from their powerful lineups. Like Baltimore, the Cleveland bats have seen their performances dip in the second half, although the Guardians’ dropoff is even more drastic. Cleveland was fifth in the AL in wRC+ in the first half 104, with Baltimore leading the way at 116. While the O’s have dropped to a 112 mark since mid-July, Cleveland is all the way down at 91—a well below-average mark that puts them in 11th in the AL.
While José Ramírez continues to produce at an elite level with a .912 OPS in the second half, the rest of Cleveland’s stars have faded. All-Star slugger Josh Naylor’s slugging percentage has dropped 85 points since the first half and he has only 12 extra-base hits post Midsummer Classic. Outfielder Steven Kwan has seen his numbers drop off even more dramatically, with the former league leader in batting average hitting only .204 with a .594 OPS in the second half. Designated hitter David Fry joins Naylor and Kwan on the struggle bus with a triple slash of .229/.308/.410 in the second half.
Cleveland’s formula for success is simple: put up enough runs to support their mediocre rotation before handing a lead to their elite bullpen. Ramírez can’t carry the offense by himself, so without a wakeup call for the rest of the lineup, Cleveland is staring down an early postseason exit.
Likelihood it derails their postseason: 4/5
Houston Astros: Depth behind Alvarez and Altuve
It’s hard to find a weakness for a team that is 25-17 since the break, leads the AL with a 2.59 second-half ERA and has series wins over current playoff teams like the Dodgers, Orioles and Royals. The Astros also have two bonafide stars atop their lineup in Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve and those two are propelling Houston to the fourth best wRC+ in the AL since the break.
However, when the ‘Stros lose, it tends to be because their offense falls flat. In 17 second-half losses, the Astros are averaging 2.3 runs/game—compared to 5.4 runs/game in wins. When you look at who Houston is relying on after Altuve and Alvarez, it starts to make sense as to why the Astros are so volatile offensively. Alex Bregman has been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries, forcing manager Joe Espada to rely on the likes of Yainer Diaz, Victor Caratini, Ben Gamel and Jeremy Peña to give their lineup depth.
While that quartet has been good for the last two months, they’re not the caliber of players we’re accustomed to seeing on Astros teams that go deep in the playoffs. If Houston can get Bregman healthy and All-Star Kyle Tucker back from the IL, it should give them the offensive depth needed for a deep playoff run. If those stars can’t get back on track, a down offensive day could strike at the wrong time and cut the Astros postseason run short.
Likelihood it derails their postseason: 2/5