In light of Norby’s debut, we explore all the ways his first MLB opportunity could affect his trajectory with the O’s.
We’ve seen a number of Orioles get thrust into bigger opportunities as a result of injuries this season. Cole Irvin has stuck in the O’s rotation, but he’s only gotten the chance to stay amongst the starters thanks to injuries to John Means. Colton Cowser is now a bonafide every day starter in the outfield in part due to an early injury to Austin Hays. Now, the latest opportunity born from injury falls to Connor Norby.
Last night, Norby open his big league career by going 0-3 with 2 Ks in Toronto. Despite struggling vs. the Blue Jays, it’s clear that Norby has the ability to succeed at the major league level. After all, he’s slashed .293/.365/.501 with 34 HRs and 135 RBIs in over 800 career ABs at Triple-A.
The O’s drafted him out of East Carolina with the reputation of a contact-first hitter thanks to a .415 average as a junior with the Pirates. Since then, he’s developed his power, putting up a combined .518 slugging percentage between Bowie and Norfolk while averaging 32 HRs per 162 games. While adding to that power, Norby has continued to show at least slightly above average speed while providing solid defense at second and in left field.
Even with this well-rounded set of tools, there’s no guarantee that Norby finds enough success this time around to keep him in Baltimore. After all, the Orioles last four big promotions—Grayson Rodriguez, Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday—all failed to stick with the O’s during their initial call-up. With that in mind, I explore all the potential outcomes for the newest Oriole.
The Best Outcome
Jorge Mateo with his 115 OPS+ and 1.3 bWAR has certainly been a pleasant surprise over the first 50+ games of the season. That being said, the best version of Norby undoubtedly offers higher offensive upside than Mateo. If Norby adjusts quickly to big league pitching, he could hit himself into the Orioles starting 2B gig for the rest of the season.
The key to staying in a starting role will likely come down to whether or not Norby hits right-handed pitching. Somewhat predictably, Mateo has been a lefty-masher this season while putting up mediocre numbers in right-on-right matchups. In 2024, Mateo is hitting .265 with a .876 OPS against lefties, but his average drops by 34 points and his OPS drops by over 200 points when facing righties.
Across the last two seasons, Norby is hitting .287 with a .471 slugging percentage when hitting off right-handed pitching. If he can translate those numbers at Triple-A to a ~.250 average and .425+ slugging percentage against MLB righites, that should be enough for Brandon Hyde to keep plugging him into the lineup.
The Middle of the Road Outcome
While we all hope that Norby’s 0-for in his debut was an anomaly, we’ve also seen plenty of the O’s super prospects come up and be met with a rude welcome to the majors. Colton Cowser hit under .100 in his first month in the big leagues. Adley Rutschman was barely above the Mendoza line in the month following his debut. Gunnar Henderson opened last year by hitting .189 in April. Struggling during your first exposure to MLB pitching is far from an indictment on your future in the big leagues.
However, if Norby can make enough flashes during this initial cameo, it’s possible he keeps himself in Baltimore, albeit as a utility man off the bench. To fulfill that utility role, Norby will not only have to demonstrate his potential at the plate, but also showcase his defensive versatility. The former second-round pick played 400+ innings in the minors as a LF. While the O’s are on their current road trip, it’s possible Brandon Hyde tries Norby in the corner outfield against lefties, with Norby in LF and Austin Hays in RF.
Whether Norby is able to show he belongs—while also taking the time he needs to adjust to big-league pitching—will be a matter of opportunity. We’ve already seen Kjerstad come up this year and get only 14 ABs before being sent back to Norfolk. With Mateo going on the concussion IL, and Norby being a right-handed bat on a team with plenty of lefties, he should find game time easier to come by.
Still, the recent hot streak from Ramón Urías complicates matters. Most assumed that if Norby hit well in his first handful of games, he’d ultimately end up replacing Urías on the roster. That becomes a taller task when the former Gold Glove winner has hit safely in six of his last seven games, and has two HRs in that stretch. If Hyde choses to ride the hot hand in Urías, that could cut into Norby’s plate appearances and prevent him from showing enough to stick with the Orioles.
The Worst Outcome
There’s a very real possibility that Norby’s cup of coffee in MLB is more of a sip than a full cup. After all, it wasn’t that long ago that Kyle Stowers made his MLB debut in Toronto, only to go back to Norfolk after three games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Elias & Co. swap Norby for Mateo again once the latter is ready to play again.
However, unlike Kjerstad and Holliday, a demotion for Norby may not come with the concrete promise of his return in the near future. Norby has long been viewed as someone who could end up as surplus due to the wealth of infield prospects. He’s not a former first round pick nor is he perceived to have the same ceiling as players like Gunnar, Holliday or Jordan Westburg.
It wouldn’t be fair to the player, but there’s a timeline out there where Norby gets the Joey Ortiz treatment. Oritz got a grand total of 33 ABs last year with the O’s before returning to the Tides and then ultimately being shipped off in the Corbin Burnes deal. Depending what he does or doesn’t show during this opportunity, it’s possible Norby quickly returns to Norfolk and the next time he’s in the news is when the Orioles trade him to fill a need at the deadline.