While their postseason hopes dim, the Orioles front office phones could be lighting up with calls from teams all over the league.
With just weeks until the trade deadline and the Orioles on the periphery of the playoff picture, it’s natural for speculation to start flying around. Ideally, the team would go on a hot streak, take control of their own postseason destiny, and add to their roster. But despite a solid month of June, the team remains a long shot to make it to October. They will have to act accordingly at the deadline.
O’s GM Mike Elias spoke to the media over the weekend about this very situation.
“I’m hoping that we aren’t sellers, but we’ve got to be realistic, look at the standings, look at how much time’s left before the deadline, how much time is necessary to execute a deadline, because that’s not one or two days.”
Let’s look at those standings, shall we? As of this writing, the Orioles are 11 games under .500. That puts them 12 games back of the Yankees for the AL East lead and seven games back of the Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot.
FanGraphs gives them a 3.3% chance to make the playoffs. Baseball Reference is far more pessimistic (and maybe realistic?), saying that the O’s have just a 0.6% chance to make it to the postseason.
That represents a decrease in odds over the last two weeks. During that stretch the Orioles have gone 6-7, losing one game in the AL Wild Card chase. That is the sort of middling run that they cannot afford at this point. The hole they dug in April and May is simply too large.
As Elias notes, a deadline cannot come together in a day or two. The Orioles will need to be committed to a direction in the relatively near future.
Elias also spoke about his interactions with ownership. Although he didn’t necessarily provide new information there, it was interesting given how things have gone awry this year.
“[Ownership is] very serious about applying financial resources to support and grow this franchise. But unfortunately, those of us in baseball, we just haven’t gotten this off to a good start in 2025…There’s reasons for that, I’ve talked about it, and we’re determined to not let it happen again. But they’ve been very supportive, understanding that this isn’t something that anybody wanted and it’s not going to plan and they’re gonna help us right the ship.”
The comment about “they’re gonna help us right the ship” feels noteworthy. It seems to suggest that ownership and Elias are still in sync. That’s something that has been unclear given how poor the season has gone. Brandon Hyde was already axed, and it was possible that Elias was next if things didn’t turn around. Of course, that could still happen, but Elias did sound somewhat optimistic.
Elias was asked about injuries and how they have made a tough season even worse.
“It’s been a contributing factor. I think when we’re underperforming as much as we have, it’s a perfect storm of ingredients for something like that. The injuries have certainly been a big part of it, and a big part of last year, us tapering off. And I’m frustrated for the players.
If we read between the lines, Elias does not sound like someone that is prepping for seismic changes. He describes ownership as “understanding.” He says that they will help “right the ship.” And then goes on to explain how injuries—rather than organizational philosophy or talent development—have been one of the big causes of under performance over the last 12 months. Although some changes are likely to come regardless, it sounds like the Orioles will largely run things back in 2026.
That informs the upcoming trade deadline as much as anything. There is no fire sale coming. The franchise cornerstones will stay put. And while some of the players on expiring contracts will likely go, that does not mean that the Orioles will only be focused on selling.
Speaking of those expiring contracts, many of them are veteran starting pitchers. Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Charlie Morton are all due to hit free agency this winter. But the Orioles could hold onto any one of them by keeping them and then giving a qualifying offer in the offseason. It won’t be cheap—the QO was $21.05 million for one season in 2025—but dependable starters never are. And it could be worth it to solidify the back of the rotation in what will be a crucial season in Baltimore.
The same could be true of position players, like Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins. But those two seem more likely to be dealt. O’Hearn is playing the best baseball of his career at 31 years old. That’s someone you try to trade at the right time rather than overpay. Mullins is a useful veteran that will look odd in any other uniform, but the organization does seem ready to replace him with internal options.
One position group that the Orioles are sure to sell from will be the bullpen. Those players are always in demand at the deadline. And while the return for relievers is rarely huge, the O’s could make up for that in quantity. Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto are hard-throwing strikeout artists. Andrew Kittredge is a veteran with late-inning experience and a flexible contract.
This should not preclude the Orioles from adding major league talent to their roster though, provided that the price and player is right.
Elias has made it a habit of adding players with more than one year of team control at previous deadlines. That was the case for Eflin, Domínguez, Soto, and Trevor Rogers. Longer contracts are usually more expensive to acquire, but can make sense for a team with long-term ambitions. And while the deadline isn’t usually the time to get discounts, maybe Elias can pull one over on a fellow GM if he is willing to gamble.
Sandy Alcantara feels like the name to watch there. The almost-30-year-old has had a tough two-year stretch. He had Tommy John surgery after the 2023 season, missed all of 2024, and has a 6.98 ERA this year. But he’s also a two-time all-star and 2022 Cy Young award winner that is under team control through 2027. That could be the sort of buy low, high ceiling player that the Orioles need.
Luis Robert Jr. could be in the mix as well. Similar to Alcantara, you would be buying at the absolute bottom of his value. But his batted ball data is better than his actual numbers, and he remains a really good fielder and base runner. If you can get him for cheap enough, there could be reason to make the move and see if he is worth the *gulp* $20 million option in 2026. He has another option for 2027 as well.
But the Orioles do not have to go entirely for reclamation projects. ESPN mentioned the Orioles as a fit for Reid Detmers, a left-handed starter-turned-reliever with years of control that has shown promise this year and could transition back to the rotation. That same article also mentions Edward Cabrera, although they do not connect the Orioles. Cabrera is 27 years old, has a 3.78 ERA and is under control through 2028. If the O’s are willing to package some prospects, a player like that could make sense too.
The Orioles are going to be one of the most interesting teams to watch at next month’s deadline. They have intriguing talents to sell, but want to position themselves to win again in 2026. That could have them in contact with just about every team in the league to see where there’s a fit. For Mike Elias, how he navigates such a complex deadline is likely to impact not only the Orioles but his own personal future. July is going to be a fascinating month.