The Orioles closer may have been the league’s most egregious All-Star snub this year, and yet by the time September rolled around he was overdue for his impending DFA. What a weird season.
Craig Kimbrel was the league’s elite closer of the 2010s. He went to a handful of All-Atar games, garnered Cy Young votes, and even had a trademark pre-pitch stance. The guy is a legend of the game. But the Orioles understood that the version they were getting in 2024 was not on that level, not even close. That was OK. If he could be just a touch above average, like he had been in 2022 and ’23, it would be enough. Welp…
We all know that things did not end well for Kimbrel in Baltimore. He was dreadful in the second half of the season, pitching to a 10.59 ERA over 18 appearances. That included his final three games in which he allowed nine runs over 2.2 innings on six hits and four walks.
The Orioles tried to get him right. He was given extended time off, moved out of the closer’s role, and put into low-leverage situations. None of it was working, leaving the team with no choice. They had hefty playoff dreams, and carrying around a pitcher incapable of getting outs didn’t fit. He was DFA’d on September 18, undoubtedly the right decision, one that probably should have come weeks sooner.
But it would be unfair to write off the Kimbrel era as an out-and-out failure. Through July 7, the 36-year-old was far exceeding expectations. He had a 2.10 ERA, 2.47 FIP, .147 batting average against, and 52 strikeouts over 34.1 innings. It was pretty great! Articles were being written about how he was snubbed for the All-Star game, and it seemed like his $13 million option for 2025 might actually be picked up. He could be the perfect set-up man for the returning Félix Bautista.
Go look at where the Orioles were in the standings on July 7. First place in the AL East, owning the best record in the AL, and only one game behind the Phillies for the best record in all of baseball. Kimbrel’s implosion from that point on is not the sole reason for the team’s collective collapse from there, but it certainly didn’t help.
So, what happened to Kimbrel in the second half of the season? A few things.
First, he lost some zip on his fastball. In April, May, and June, he averaged between 93.9 and 94.5 mph on his four-seam. In July, August, and September that fell to between 92.9 and 93.6 mph. That is a below-average for all pitchers, but especially for closers.
Next, he began to really lose the strike zone. The percentage of his pitches that were outside of the strike zone went from 45.9% in June, up to 53.7% in July, and it kept climbing in August (54.4%) and September (55%). And when he was in the zone, he was not missing bats. His swing-and-miss rate in the strike zone decreased every month from June (24.2%) right on through September (12.9%).
It’s likely that those two things were influencing one another. Kimbrel understood he was getting smacked around in the strike zone, so he tried to encourage chasing more often. It didn’t really work. His chase rate actually went down slightly in July and August.
In general that made him less competitive in at-bats, pitching from behind. So his strikeout rate dipped from 34.2% in June to 31.9% in July (which would still be really good), and then all the way to 20% in August. Meanwhile his walk rate went in the wrong direction: up to 14.9% in July, down to 10% in August, but back up to 20.8% in September.
There were some signs of tweaking. As mentioned earlier, Kimbrel seemed to be nibbling more often. He also changed his pitch mix a bit, nearly abandoning everything but his fastball and knuckle curve later in the season. And he appears to have fiddled with his arm angle later in the season, raising it a few degrees compared to early on. Unfortunately, none of it was working.
There is probably not some huge mystery afoot here. Kimbrel is a 36-year-old professional athlete. Some of the data would seem to indicate that he is slowing down a bit. When that happens, you need to pull something else out of your bag of tricks. But Kimbrel does not have the deepest bag. He has a fastball-heavy approach that has historically leaned on above-average velocity and really good spin rates. While his spin rates are still solid, he has lost a tick on the radar gun. That spells disaster.
It is entirely possible that Kimbrel was dealing with an injury of some kind. In late April, during a game against the Athletics, the veteran was clearly uncomfortable after throwing a 96 mph fastball. He was in the midst of blowing a second straight save and eventually left the game early with a trainer. It was revealed to be an upper back issue, but Kimbrel would never hit the IL. He sat for a few days and seemed to get past it. Perhaps that issue flared up later on, but even still it wouldn’t make much sense to not take an IL stint if that was the problem. Whatever the cause, Kimbrel was a disaster post-all star break, and it was time for the Orioles to move on.
Hopefully this is not the way Kimbrel’s storied career ends. If he is interested, Kimbrel can probably earn a spring training invite for some team by the time February rolls around. He certainly wore down as the season progressed, but he was also tremendous as recently as early July. That alone could be reason for someone to take a flier on him.
The Orioles are unlikely to be that team. Bautista is expected to be ready in plenty of time for spring training. He will be the team’s closer, and that will be a welcome change for all of us. But let’s not collective forget the good times that Kimbrel had in an Orioles uniform. When the team was rolling, he was part of what worked. And when they struggled he was far from the only cause.
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