Taking stock of where the O’s stand going into the break, and the reasons why they should be even better in the “second half.”
The Orioles aren’t going into the All-Star break in the best of form. They lost six of their final eight games, which trimmed their AL East lead from three games to just one. On top of that, there are legitimate concerns going forward about a thin pitching staff and a lineup that slowed down considerably going into the break, But if you step back for just a moment to get some perspective you realize that the “first half” the Orioles just put together was pretty darn impressive.
Despite all of the recent struggles, the reality is this: The Orioles have sole possession of first place in the AL East. They are on their way to having the head-to-head tiebreaker against both the Yankees and the Red Sox. The team’s minor league system still promises to produce at least one or two more impact pieces before the season is out. And the trade deadline is ahead, a huge opportunity to plug holes on this roster.
If you had laid out those circumstances for an Orioles fan heading into the season, they would have probably taken it. They definitely would have if presented them in early June, when the Yankees were 4.5 games up and seemingly unstoppable, and the Orioles were dealing with an injury crisis on their pitching staff.
It’s important to note that the Orioles have faced a gauntlet in the season’s first half. The team was given one off day in June by MLB schedule-makers, and they weren’t even gifted a rainout. Even still, they went 17-12 in the month and managed to climb out of the aforementioned 4.5-game hole by month’s end.
Not only that, but they have had one of the tougher schedules in all of baseball so far. The Orioles’ .510 opponent’s winning percentage is tied with the Angels, Blue Jays, and White Sox for the highest in the sport.
Thankfully, things should ease up in the second half of the year as the Orioles are set to face teams with a combined .492 winning percentage in their remaining schedule. That is the eighth-easiest schedule in MLB and the easiest of any AL East team.
That lower competition may be a welcome reprieve for some of the team’s struggling hitters. Ryan O’Hearn (84 wRC+), Jordan Westburg (82 wRC+), Ryan Mountcastle (75 wRC+), Colton Cowser (38 wRC+), Adley Rutschman (35 wRC+), and Cedric Mullins (30 wRC+) have all scuffled so far in July. Even Gunnar Henderson (108 wRC+) has been less than you expect him to be so far this month.
Each of those players should see their numbers bounce back to reality in the weeks ahead, and with that the offense as a whole will get back to normal. The team has averaged nearly five runs per game to this point. That isn’t all going away overnight.
Things are less clear on the pitching side of things. The Orioles are simply running out of arms with Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells all out for the year with UCL injuries.
The rotation is cobbled together behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. Cade Povich is experiencing the ups and downs that come with being a rookie, Albert Suárez is battling but looks like a better fit in the bullpen, and Dean Kremer is failing to get deep into games.
It’s similar in the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel has been good (Sunday against the Yankees notwithstanding), but there are question marks all around him. Jacob Webb, Yennier Cano, and Cionel Pérez have done well in July, and they should all be fixtures down the stretch, but with some rockiness along the way. Brandon Hyde doesn’t trust anyone else at the moment, which is why Mike Elias is starting to throw everything (Burch Smith, Vinny Nittoli, etc.) against the well.
There could be some internal solutions to the Orioles’ pitching woes. Chayce McDermott and Seth Johnson are two prospects that probably aren’t ready for rotation roles, but they could fit somewhere in the middle innings. Tucker Davidson is a left-handed veteran that the Orioles claimed from the Royals in the offseason. He has a 2.63 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 61.2 innings down in Triple-A. He could be a fit. Nolan Hoffman has 51 strikeouts in 36 innings (but also a 1.69 WHIP). He’s not out of the question either.
But if the team is really serious about getting better, the trade market is where they need to search. The Orioles absolutely need a starter, someone of mid-rotation quality or better. Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet are available, but expensive. There are a plethora of veteran innings eaters on the block. It all depends on how much Elias can stomach parting with his prized prospects.
Adding a rotation piece will in part improve the bullpen. One of Povich, Suárez, or Kremer can immediately move into a relief role, and any one of them would be better than the last man out there at the moment. But again, more is needed. The Orioles don’t necessarily have to add a “closer,” but they need to upgrade the late innings in some way.
The organization is well-stocked to make just about any move they desire. They have high-end prospects in Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo that could land a Skubal type, but it’s unclear if Elias wants to move them. And they have a bunch of fringe Top 100 types, like Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, and Enrique Bradfield Jr. that could be easier to pry away. Those are the type of players that could get the Orioles a mid-rotation starter and some decent bullpen arms.
Mike Elias showed a season ago that he is comfortable making depth moves at the deadline. He added Shintaro Fujinami to the bullpen and Jack Flaherty to the rotation. Those moves did not work, but it was also Elias’ first shot at adding significant reinforcements in-season. Maybe he gets better at it this time, and takes more risks.
But the important point is that what the Orioles need at the deadline is not earth-shaking. They have an in-house ace in Burnes. They have a steady closer in Kimbrel. Their lineup, when operating at normal efficiency, is deeper than any other in the league, and it includes an MVP candidate in Henderson. The Orioles do not necessarily need to take a massive swing in order to get better, although that would be fun. They just need to shore up a weak spot or two.
It’s hard to not like where the Orioles sit at the end of the “first half.” This team, as assembled, is on pace for 97 wins and they have an easier schedule ahead of them than behind them. There are areas to improve, and the organization has the means to make it happen, but the flaws are not as deep as some of their opponents. It would have been nice to see the Birds fly into the break on a slightly higher note, but all things considering this was a really good 96 games, and there should be even better things ahead.