They’ll probably have to run the table from now to the All-Star break to stop Mike Elias from planning the fire sale.
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One question stands out above all others as the Orioles play through the month of July. How close to a wild card spot can they play themselves? After the series against the Rangers concluded, the O’s sit eight games out with seven other teams to pass. They are 12 games below .500. It’s a tough hill to climb and the Orioles just haven’t done enough to believe with anything other than blind hope that they might climb it.
In talking to the media this week, while general manager Mike Elias didn’t say the Orioles are definitely doing a sell-off, he made comments to The Baltimore Banner that included things like, “We’re going to have to be realistic about the situation,” and, “We’re doing the best we can in the short term (to overcome the bad start), and if we don’t then we’ll tackle the deadline the way we should.” It’s not hard to figure out what he means by that.
I asked fans this week to think about how close the Orioles will get before the deadline. Here’s how the results look:
That’s a solid plurality choice in favor of the Orioles ending up 5-6 games back by July 31. I don’t think that will be enough to stop a sell-off, not so much because of the number of games as because they will probably only pass one of the seven teams they need to pass if they end up in that range. With the only reliable starting pitcher lately being Dean Kremer,
About as many fans thought the Orioles would roughly tread water at their current level as thought that there would be a notable improvement into a 3-4 game deficit. I am not so sure that even making it within four games would be enough to ward Elias away from trading guys rather than buying, but that would probably be close enough to have fans disappointed if the Orioles sell anyway.
This week’s survey brought to you by FanDuel.