The Orioles’ lineup needs more offense. Norfolk’s lineup has more offense than any team in the minors. Here are five moves that would get Norfolk’s best hitters to Camden Yards.
The Orioles’ big league squad has an offense problem right now. The Norfolk Tides have a potential solution.
After all, the Orioles are coming off a series against Kansas City and Pittsburgh where they combined to hit .199 while hitting .170 with runners in scoring position. While the batting average isn’t good, the O’s performance with runners on second and/or third is the particularly worrying trend. After all, the O’s are the team that led MLB with a .287 average with runners in scoring position last year.
If the Orioles bats are living under a storm cloud right now, Norfolk’s lineup is in the midst of the most vibrant patch of sunshine. Through nine games, the Tides scored 100 runs, 48 more than any other team in the International League. The boys at Norfolk have bashed 29 HRs so far; the next-best team has only 11 long balls. Norfolk’s current team average of .343 is 55 points higher than second place, while its .671 slugging percentage leads the field by more than 200 points.
The source of this offensive surge down in Norfolk is a group of five hitters that could rival many major league lineups. Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo all have an OPS above 1.000 and rank in the Top 5 in the International League in hits. Kjerstad and Stowers are tied for the league lead in HRs, while Kjerstad, Stowers and Norby rank 1-2-3 in RBIs.
Even before the big league bats became burdened by their recent struggles, plenty of O’s fans wanted Mike Elias to bring the Norfolk Five up to Baltimore. Those cries will only grow louder as the Orioles struggle to cobble together 3+ runs per game runs.
However, for every exciting prospect Elias brings up, he needs to shed a player the big league roster. With that in mind, I present five moves that could get every member of Norfolk’s exciting core to Baltimore.
No. 1: Orioles release UTIL Tony Kemp, call up 2B/SS Jackson Holliday
The fact that Elias gave Tony Kemp a roster spot was already painful enough. Since then, Kemp is 0-6 and Brandon Hyde seems to see him as more of a last resort than platoon option. Meanwhile, Holliday is slashing .342/.490/.605 while serving as the lead-off man for the most dynamic offense at any level of baseball.
When Elias announced the decision to have Holliday begin the season at Norfolk, he said they wanted Holliday to get more ABs against quality left-handed pitching while also spending more time acclimating to 2B. In his first Triple-A AB of the season, Holliday launched a lead-off, left-on-left HR. He’s also started seven of the Tides’ first nine games at 2B, bringing his minor league innings total at second to 278.1 innings. Small sample sizes be damned: every early indication is that Holliday can handle lefties and second base without issue.
However, even if there were legitimate concerns about Holliday’s ability to do either of those things, he’d still be a major boost offensively to this infield. A poor defensive 2B who only plays against righties would still be a massive improvement over what Kemp offers, and there’s plenty reason to believe Holliday would be much more than that.
No. 2: Orioles DFA IF Ramón Urías, call up 3B Coby Mayo
After Holliday, Mayo is the next youngest member of the Norfolk Five, having been drafted out of high school in 2020. While some may see Mayo as the least major league ready of the group, he also offers a (mostly) seamless fit with the player he’s replacing.
Urías is offering the Orioles nothing offensively, having gone 1-17 with a single so far this season. The Orioles will almost certainly preach patience with him, not wanting to hastily move on from a former Gold Glove winner and versatile infielder. The problem is that Urías is coming off a 2023 where he was a well-below average defender, and he offers little to no power upside at a position normally occupied by heavy hitters. Sure his offense may rebound somewhat, but the last 12 months have shown us that Urías may not have an above average skillset offensively or defensively.
Mayo could step in and provide the Orioles with a 3B who almost has no ceiling offensively. Coming out of high school, Mayo was compared favorably to Braves slugger Austin Riley. After launching 29 HRs between Double-A and Triple-A last year (as well as this moonshot this season), that comparison seems more than apt. The only question mark with Mayo is whether he has the defensive chops to stick at third in the MLB. While his defensive numbers in the minors aren’t great, they’re also not so bad that the Orioles decided to move him away from 3B. And I’d much rather have a defensively questionable 3B that hits bombs than a maybe good defensive 3B that can’t get a hit.
No. 3: Orioles trade 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, call up OF/1B Heston Kjerstad
Kjerstad early season Triple-A numbers—and his encouraging big league cameo at the end of 2023—make a compelling case that he’s the most major league ready prospect. I’d have no issue calling up Kjerstad today and sticking him in the lineup tomorrow vs. Boston.
O’Hearn’s presence on the roster is the biggest thing standing in the way of Kjerstad’s promotion. ROH has certainly contributed more this year than either Kemp or Urías, posting a .333 average and three extra-base hits. However, there’s no world where the Orioles keep two left-handed hitters with the exact same defensive profile on the roster. O’Hearn’s offensive upside means the Orioles should be able to get something for him in a trade, which would clear Kjerstad’s path to the big leagues.
No. 4: Orioles trade INF Jorge Mateo, call up 2B/OF Connor Norby
While Kemp for Holliday, Urías for Mayo and O’Hearn for Kjerstad are all straight swaps, this move would see the Orioles sacrifice an elite attribute without an obvious replacement. We all know what Jorge Mateo brings to the table: electric speed, above average defense, positional versatility and a wildly inconsistent bat. Mateo’s speed and defense alone make him an asset, albeit an asset with a limited ceiling. The utility man has all the tools to be a 20 2Bs/20 HRs/20 SBs kind of player, but he’ll likely never reach the consistency required to put up those stats.
Norby doesn’t have elite tools like Mateo, but offers similar versatility and a much steadier bat. As a combination 2B/corner outfielder, Norby’s upside is that of a slower but more powerful Whit Merrifield. After posting 21 HRs and 10 SBs last year for Norfolk, it’s easy to imagine peak Norby hitting .280, posting an .800-something OPS while cranking out 25-30 HRs and 10-15 SBs.
When Mateo was primarily playing SS, replacing him with Norby wouldn’t have made sense. Now that Mateo’s primarily playing 2B, there’s enough crossover defensively to consider the swap. Trading away Mateo would cost the Orioles some speed and defense, but giving his ABs to Norby should buoy the offense output enough that it’s an overall net gain.
Move 5: Orioles trade OF Austin Hays, call up OF Kyle Stowers.
If we were ranking these moves in terms of their likelihood to happen, this would far and away be the least likely. After all, Hays is coming off an All-Star season in 2023 and is one of the most valued and respected veterans on the team. That being said, Hays is not without his faults. His start to the 2024 has been abysmal, as he’s currently in a 2-26 slump with a miniscule .249 OPS.
As our Tyler Young pointed out yesterday, these early season struggles are no reason to believe the sky is falling for Hays. However, the outfielder has also battled through big second half dropoffs in each of the last two seasons. First Half Austin Hays was nothing short of a stud in 2022 and 2023. Across the first halves of those seasons, Hays combined to hit .290 and slug .504—numbers comparable to All-Stars Julio Rodríguez and Corbin Carroll. However, his combined second half numbers tumble all the way down to .224 and .364 slugging percentage—both well below the major league average.
Viewing his current struggles through the context of those late season decline makes many members of Birdland ready to sound the Austin Hays alarm bells. If the Orioles decide to move on from Hays, Stowers could be a ready made replacement. Over his last 82 ABs between spring training and Triple-A, the former Stanford outfielder is hitting .293 with 13 HRs, 32 RBIs and a slugging percentage of .805. The Orioles could certainly get a decent return for Hays in a trade and I might even go so far as saying that Stowers has the higher offensive upside. However, this move still remains a long shot.