Since the Orioles fired Brandon Hyde as manager last Saturday, I’ve been bombarded with questions about executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias. Fans want to know when the Orioles will fire him.
That’s not an easy one to answer. Managers are often fired during the season. Hyde was one of three to be fired this month, but an in-season dismissal of Elias by owner David Rubenstein would be problematic.
The Orioles’ front office has been shaped by Elias, and there’s no obvious successor.
The Orioles are already headed for a bad season, and if they lose 100 or more games, it’s certainly possible that Rubenstein decides to move on from Elias. A dismissal late in the season could give the Orioles time to find a new general manager and allow Elias’ successor the opportunity to find a new manager.
In 2018 when Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter were fired shortly after the 115-loss season, it took until mid-November for Elias to take over, and it wasn’t until after the Winter Meetings in December that Hyde was named manager.
But it’s entirely possible that Rubenstein will give Elias another offseason to turn the team around.
While the last four-plus months of the season are likely to be forgettable, the off field machinations could be fascinating.
If the team’s record doesn’t become respectable in he next two months, the selloff begins.
There are obvious names beginning with soon-to-be free agents. Starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano would be attractive to contenders. So would centerfielder Cedric Mullins and first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn as well as relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto.
Players with an additional year of club control, including first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and infielder Ramón Urías, also could be available.
If Elias returns, the most interesting question is, how does he try to reset the club?
With 2025 marked as a lost season, there’s still a multi-year window where the Orioles’ homegrown players, including catcher Adley Rutschman, shortstop Gunnar Henderson, second baseman Jackson Holliday, outfielder Colton Cowser, third baseman Jordan Westburg and outfielder/designated hitter Heston Kjerstad are under club control.
Injured starters Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells could all pitch later in the season, and they’re under club control, too.
While the Orioles’ minor league system has been depleted by graduations to the major leagues and trades, they do have a few prospects close to the major leagues — outfielder Dylan Beavers (who’s quietly had a fine season at Triple-A Norfolk), catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo and corner infielder Coby Mayo could get an extended opportunity later in the season.
There’s also Cowser, who’s beginning a rehab assignment at High-A Aberdeen, and Westburg, whose left hamstring has been slow to heal. Kjerstad hasn’t stood out in his first extended big league stint, and Rutschman’s performance continues to mystify.
While some fans might be eager to see a 2025 selloff similar to the one in 2018, which gutted the club, the Orioles won’t be doing that. It’s a retool, not a rebuild.
There are many more major league players on this year’s roster, and even if Elias wanted Rebuild II, the guarantee of high draft picks is no longer there. There’s a draft lottery now to prevent deliberate tanking, and the Orioles would have to win the No. 1 pick for next July’s draft instead of earning it with the 115 losses in 2018 and the 110 in 2021.
With Rubenstein in control, the Orioles could be major spenders in the offseason to acquire starting pitchers, although there was thought they would do that this past offseason.
Last offseason’s acquisitions, which included outfielder Tyler O’Neill, starter Charlie Morton and catcher Gary Sánchez, weren’t inspiring, to say the least. Elias’ signing of Sugano was a good one, and outfielder Ramón Laureano has been productive.
Elias does have some accomplishments. He added a massive analytics department, bringing the Orioles into the 21st century. Previously, their analytics department was one of the smallest in the big leagues.
When previous owner John Angelos allowed the team to aggressively enter the international market, Elias did so. Basallo should be the first of many international prospects to join the Orioles. The team also built a new complex in the Dominican Republic, which is important in convincing Latin American prospects to sign with the Orioles.
Whether Elias stays or goes, the team, backed by an owner willing to spend, is in far better shape than the one he took over in 2018. How they’ll get out of this current mess remains to be seen.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.