Gregory Soto expressed a desire to pitch in higher leverage situations last season. With the Orioles expected to slow play Félix Bautista, could Soto rise to the occasion?
They say you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Gregory Soto got off to a brutal start after arriving in Baltimore at the trade deadline, but the former Phillie quickly turned into one of Brandon Hyde’s most trusted relievers.
Soto allowed four runs and only recorded one out in his first appearance against the Guardians. He held Cleveland to a pair of hits his next time out before taking another four-run shellacking against the Blue Jays. The two-time All Star had already been deemed expendable by Philadelphia, and he didn’t look like an answer for the injury-riddled O’s.
Fortunately, things quickly turned for the better. Initially pitching in lower-leverage situations, Soto rattled off 10 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run. In fact, the lefty limited opponents to only two runs in his final 20 appearances for the Birds.
Soto mainly relies on a high 90s sinker and a strong slider to keep hitters off balance. His Whiff percentage (31.0), strikeout percentage (26.6) and his fastball velocity (97.5) all ranked in the top quarter of baseball last season.
The Orioles will be thrilled to get Félix Bautista back, but Hyde has already outlined plans to ease the All-Star closer back into his role. Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano and even Keegan Akin could all be counted on in early save situations. Free-agent acquisition Andrew Kittredge figured to factor into that group, but the 34-year-old will miss at least two months after undergoing a knee procedure.
Soto possesses the power pitching style of a late-inning reliever. ZiPS projects the lefty to post the third highest K/9 behind only Bautista and Akin. It also projects a 5-3 record, 3.60 ERA, and one save over 62 appearances (55 IP).
The 3.60 ERA would represent Soto’s best tally since his most recent All Star appearance in 2022. Can Soto best the projection?
The case for the under
I watched Soto strike out a pair during a scoreless inning in Sarasota on Saturday. The power arm looked ready for the regular season, and Soto is likely eager to make a stronger impression in 2025.
Domínguez emerged as the unofficial closer in the second half of last season, but the bullpen hierarchy will completely reset this year. Soto has experience pitching at the end of games.
The former closer recorded 48 saves for Detroit between 2021 and 2022. He expressed a desire to pitch in higher leverage situations after arriving in Baltimore, but his early struggles threw cold water on the idea. Looking ahead to 2025, a few early save situations could be exactly the type of motivation that Soto needs.
The case for the over
Those two bad outings were really bad last season. Soto allowed five earned runs in 0.1 innings with the Phillies back in April, so the runs seem to come in bunches. It only takes a few bad appearances for a reliever’s ERA to balloon. For what it’s worth, ZiPS projects a 3.35 FIP and 0.6 WAR for the reliever.
Even without Kittredge, the Orioles have several options for late in games. It’s unclear how Soto would react if he fell behind Akin and/or Cíonel Pérez in Hyde’s lefty power rankings.