Major League Baseball’s free agency period always takes its sweet time to get going. However, it looked like baseball fans would not have to wait as long this offseason. Pete Alonso, the top first baseman available, signed with the Baltimore Orioles on December 10. But turns out that was just baseball offering a sneak peek. The stove had been put on preheat, but did not become fully hot. Fast forward more than a month, and the board has finally become a lot clearer.
Alex Bregman Gets the Ball Rolling
Alex Bregman finally got the ball rolling on January 10 when the Chicago Cubs signed the 31-year-old third baseman to a five-year, $175 million contract, followed closely by the Boston Red Sox signing starting pitcher Ranger Suárez to a five-year deal worth $130 million. Those were just the appetizers before the main course. Baseball’s collective worst nightmare happened on Thursday night, January 15. It was announced that right fielder Kyle Tucker was signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a four-year deal worth $240 million.
Tucker was the number one player on The Athletic’s Free Agency Big Board. He is still just 29 and has made four consecutive All-Star teams, and has not finished a season below 4.6 in WAR since the Covid-shortened season of 2020. The New York Mets were rumored to be involved late, but the Dodgers got the deal done, and the rich get richer. Tucker immediately moves to the top of the Dodgers’ payroll. Per Spotrac, Tucker is due just $1 million in 2026 before his annual salary skyrockets to $55 million in 2027.
If he wants a change of scenery following 2027, he has an opt-out available in 2028. Tucker also receives a hefty signing bonus of $64 million. Per ESPN’s report on the deal, since the Dodgers are already set to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2026, Tucker will cost the Dodgers $119.9 million annually. The luxury tax tracker for 2026 paints a clear picture of why the Dodgers can continue to hoard all the talent.
Teams Aren’t Spending Money!
The tax threshold for 2026 is set at $244,000,000. The Dodgers lead the MLB with a luxury tax payroll of $411,972,413. Setting them up for a significant estimated tax bill of $160 million. They are one of five teams that are entering their third-plus year over the luxury tax. The Dodgers and Mets are in a different stratosphere. Sitting at least $60 million clear of the next team when it comes to the luxury tax. A whopping 20 teams are non-taxpayers. The Miami Marlins, meanwhile, are on the complete opposite spectrum. With just shy of $101 million in total luxury tax payroll, the lowest in the league.
The Marlins signed two former Tampa Bay Rays this offseason. Paying a combined $15 million for the services of reliever Pete Fairbanks ($13 million) and utility player Christopher Morel ($2 million). Fairbanks and Starting Pitcher Sandy Alcantara are currently the only two Marlins players who will exceed $10 million in average annual salary in 2026. The Pittsburgh Pirates are another perfect example of the issue currently plaguing baseball. They were supposedly going to be big spenders this offseason to finally build around star starting pitcher, Paul Skenes.
“Big Spenders”
The Pirates instead got outbid for Kyle Schwarber and Josh Naylor. Leaving them with just two free agents signed. Reliever Gregory Soto and first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. So much for being “big spenders”. The Pirates got outbid for two of their top targets and immediately went back to business as usual.
Alonso is one of only three free agents in the Athletic’s top 15 to sign with a non-tax-paying team. The two others resigned with their respective clubs in Naylor (14th) and Gleyber Torres (15th). Yes, nobody wants to see the Dodgers continually add to an already ridiculous roster. But when only a few teams are challenging them for free agents, they simply bide their time and do what a lot of the league isn’t doing. Spend money! Don’t blame the Dodgers for taking advantage of the top free agents essentially falling in their lap. Blame the owners of non-competitive baseball clubs that continually don’t spend any money on improving their rosters.
Different Strategies of Roster Building
In fairness to those non-tax-paying teams, it is not every team’s strategy to spend big in free agency. The Milwaukee Brewers and Rays have managed to consistently be in the upper half of the league without top 15 payrolls. Additionally, the San Diego Padres and Mets have consistently been among the top spenders in the MLB and have zero National League pennants to show for it. The Mets paid Juan Soto $62 million last year to not even make the postseason. They are hoping that adding Bo Bichette, the number two player on the Athletic’s Big Board, for three years and $126 million will help them get back.
But even if their spending hasn’t borne fruit yet, there are a lot more fans at Mets and Padres games than at Pirates and Cincinnati Reds’ games. Mets and Padres fans can at least take comfort in knowing that their front offices are using all their resources every year to try to win a World Series. Meanwhile, fans of these non-spending teams are watching their star players play out their prime as the front offices remain inactive. Leading to nightmare situations like in Detroit, where the whole league worries about Tarik Skubal ending up in LA or New York.
The Tucker signing seemed like a breaking point. Leading to a fever pitch of salary cap talk in baseball. Not sure if a salary cap is the answer, but maybe a salary floor? These consistently inactive teams should, at the very least, meet a certain spending threshold.
There are proud and devoted fan bases across baseball, consistently having nothing to cheer for. That is a big problem, and the MLB has to do something about it. Otherwise, it will be a rinse-and-repeat every offseason. The hot stove will remain cold until mid January. Leaving the top teams, led by the Dodgers, to sign the top free agents at their leisure.
Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images